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Despite widespread success in language understanding and generation, large language models (LLMs) exhibit unclear and often inconsistent behavior when faced with tasks that require probabilistic reasoning. In this work, we present the first…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-09-29 Mobina Pournemat , Keivan Rezaei , Gaurang Sriramanan , Arman Zarei , Jiaxiang Fu , Yang Wang , Hamid Eghbalzadeh , Soheil Feizi

Prospect Theory (PT) models human decision-making behaviour under uncertainty, among which linguistic uncertainty is commonly adopted in real-world scenarios. Although recent studies have developed some frameworks to test PT parameters for…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-13 Rui Wang , Qihan Lin , Jiayu Liu , Qing Zong , Tianshi Zheng , Dadi Guo , Haochen Shi , Weiqi Wang , Yangqiu Song

Large Language Models (LLMs) are a powerful tool for statistical text analysis, with derived sequences of next-token probability distributions offering a wealth of information. Extracting this signal typically relies on metrics such as…

The emergence of discourse-like tokens such as "wait" and "therefore" in large language models (LLMs) has offered a unique window into their reasoning processes. However, systematic analyses of how such signals vary across training…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-01-27 Jaehui Hwang , Dongyoon Han , Sangdoo Yun , Byeongho Heo

In this paper, we investigate the phenomena of "selection biases" in Large Language Models (LLMs), focusing on problems where models are tasked with choosing the optimal option from an ordered sequence. We delve into biases related to…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-06-06 Sheng-Lun Wei , Cheng-Kuang Wu , Hen-Hsen Huang , Hsin-Hsi Chen

Probabilistic next-token prediction trained using cross-entropy loss is the basis of most large language models. Given a sequence of previous values, next-token prediction assigns a probability to each possible next value in the vocabulary.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-19 Jacob Trauger , Ambuj Tewari

Autoregressive neural language models (LMs) generate a probability distribution over tokens at each time step given a prompt. In this work, we attempt to systematically understand the probability distributions that LMs can produce, showing…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-09-23 Haojin Wang , Zining Zhu , Freda Shi

Language modeling has shifted in recent years from a distribution over strings to prediction models with textual inputs and outputs for general-purpose tasks. This position paper highlights the often overlooked implications of this shift…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-13 Eitan Wagner , Omri Abend

Large Language Models (LLMs), such as GPT, are considered to learn the latent distributions within large-scale web-crawl datasets and accomplish natural language processing (NLP) tasks by predicting the next token. However, this mechanism…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-02-04 Kun-Peng Ning , Jia-Yu Yao , Yu-Yang Liu , Mu-Nan Ning , Li Yuan

We analyze how large language models (LLMs) represent out-of-context words, investigating their reliance on the given context to capture their semantics. Our likelihood-guided text perturbations reveal a correlation between token likelihood…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-03-16 Valeria Ruscio , Valentino Maiorca , Fabrizio Silvestri

The relationship between the quality of a string, as judged by a human reader, and its probability, $p(\boldsymbol{y})$ under a language model undergirds the development of better language models. For example, many popular algorithms for…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-29 Naaman Tan , Josef Valvoda , Tianyu Liu , Anej Svete , Yanxia Qin , Kan Min-Yen , Ryan Cotterell

Standard evaluations of Large language models (LLMs) focus on task performance, offering limited insight into whether correct behavior reflects appropriate underlying mechanisms and risking confirmation bias. We introduce a simple,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-01 Zoë Prins , Samuele Punzo , Frank Wildenburg , Giovanni Cinà , Sandro Pezzelle

Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithms for safety alignment of Large Language Models (LLMs), such as Direct Preference Optimization (DPO), encounter the challenge of distribution shift. Current approaches typically address this issue…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-06-17 Qiyuan Deng , Xuefeng Bai , Kehai Chen , Yaowei Wang , Liqiang Nie , Min Zhang

Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved state-of-the-art performance on a broad range of Natural Language Processing (NLP) tasks, including document processing and code generation. Autoregressive Language Models (ARMs), which generate…

Recent work has shown that larger language models have better predictive power for eye movement and reading time data. While even the best models under-allocate probability mass to human responses, larger models assign higher-quality…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-02-23 Cassandra L. Jacobs , Morgan Grobol

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown promise in clinical applications through prompt engineering, allowing flexible clinical predictions. However, they struggle to produce reliable prediction probabilities, which are crucial for…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-12-05 Bowen Gu , Rishi J. Desai , Kueiyu Joshua Lin , Jie Yang

Language model (LM) decoding is based on the next-token prediction (NTP) probability distribution. For neural LMs (e.g., Transformer-based), NTP distribution is essentially a softmax-regularized dot product between an encoded input context…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-04 Letian Peng , Chenyang An , Jingbo Shang

The widespread adoption of large language models (LLMs) makes it important to recognize their strengths and limitations. We argue that in order to develop a holistic understanding of these systems we need to consider the problem that they…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-09-26 R. Thomas McCoy , Shunyu Yao , Dan Friedman , Matthew Hardy , Thomas L. Griffiths

Large language models (LLMs) require careful alignment to balance competing objectives - factuality, safety, conciseness, proactivity, and diversity. Existing studies focus on individual techniques or specific dimensions, lacking a holistic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-17 Denis Janiak , Julia Moska , Dawid Motyka , Karolina Seweryn , Paweł Walkowiak , Bartosz Żuk , Arkadiusz Janz

Reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for ensuring trustworthy downstream use of large language models, especially when they are deployed in decision-support and other knowledge-intensive applications. Model certainty can be…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-11-04 Autumn Toney-Wails , Ryan Wails
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