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The regression discontinuity (RD) design is widely used for program evaluation with observational data. The primary focus of the existing literature has been the estimation of the local average treatment effect at the existing treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-05 Yi Zhang , Eli Ben-Michael , Kosuke Imai

We investigate how to learn treatment effects away from the cutoff in multiple-cutoff regression discontinuity designs. Using a microeconomic model, we demonstrate that the parallel-trend type assumption proposed in the literature is…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-09-03 Yuta Okamoto , Yuuki Ozaki

Many statistical estimands of interest (e.g., in regression or causality) are functions of the joint distribution of multiple random variables. But in some applications, data is not available that measures all random variables on each…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-11 Yicong Jiang , Lucas Janson

Partial identification approaches are a flexible and robust alternative to standard point-identification approaches in general instrumental variable models. However, this flexibility comes at the cost of a ``curse of cardinality'': the…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-06-30 Florian Gunsilius

The inference of causal relationships using observational data from partially observed multivariate systems with hidden variables is a fundamental question in many scientific domains. Methods extracting causal information from conditional…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-13 Daniel Chicharro , Michel Besserve , Stefano Panzeri

The problem of statistical inference in its various forms has been the subject of decades-long extensive research. Most of the effort has been focused on characterizing the behavior as a function of the number of available samples, with far…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-12 Tomer Berg , Or Ordentlich , Ofer Shayevitz

Identifying the effects of causes and causes of effects is vital in virtually every scientific field. Often, however, the needed probabilities may not be fully identifiable from the data sources available. This paper shows how partial…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-01-31 Ang Li , Scott Mueller , Judea Pearl

This paper develops a unified framework for partial identification and inference in stratified experiments with attrition, accommodating both equal and heterogeneous treatment shares across strata. For equal-share designs, we apply recent…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-21 Bruno Ferman , Davi Siqueira , Vitor Possebom

This paper provides a general identification approach for a wide range of nonlinear panel data models, including binary choice, ordered response, and other types of limited dependent variable models. Our approach accommodates dynamic models…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-09 Wayne Yuan Gao , Rui Wang

The purpose of this paper is to explain the interest and importance of (approximate) models and model selection in Statistics. Starting from the very elementary example of histograms we present a general notion of finite dimensional model…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Lucien Birgé

We study a class of binary treatment choice problems with partial identification through the lens of robust (multiple prior) Bayesian analysis. We use a convenient set of prior distributions to derive ex-ante and ex-post robust Bayes…

Regression discontinuity (RD) designs are a popular approach to estimating a treatment effect of cutoff-based interventions. Two current estimation approaches dominate the literature. One fits separate regressions on either side of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-10 Daryl Swartzentruber , Eloise Kaizar

Latent class models have wide applications in social and biological sciences. In many applications, pre-specified restrictions are imposed on the parameter space of latent class models, through a design matrix, to reflect practitioners'…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-06-03 Yuqi Gu , Gongjun Xu

Nonignorable missing outcomes are common in real world datasets and often require strong parametric assumptions to achieve identification. These assumptions can be implausible or untestable, and so we may forgo them in favour of partially…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-19 Daniel Daly-Grafstein , Paul Gustafson

Based on decision trees, many fields have arguably made tremendous progress in recent years. In simple words, decision trees use the strategy of "divide-and-conquer" to divide the complex problem on the dependency between input features and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-22 Jinxiong Zhang

We develop a mathematical and interpretative foundation for the enterprise of decision-theoretic statistical causality (DT), which is a straightforward way of representing and addressing causal questions. DT reframes causal inference as…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-04-28 A. Philip Dawid

In this paper, we revisit the notion of partial copula, originally introduced to test conditional independence, highlighting its capability to represent the dependence between two random variables after removing their dependence with a…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-26 Vinícius Litvinoff Justus , Felipe Fontana Vieira

This paper provides a formal econometric framework behind the newly developed difference-in-discontinuities design (DiDC). Despite its increasing use in applied research, there are currently limited studies of its properties. We formalize…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-28 Pedro Picchetti , Cristine C. X. Pinto , Stephanie T. Shinoki

The goal of this thesis is to advance the exploration of the statistical language learning design space. In pursuit of that goal, the thesis makes two main theoretical contributions: (i) it identifies a new class of designs by specifying an…

cmp-lg · Computer Science 2008-02-03 Mark Lauer

The present communication addresses a set of observations, obeying both deterministic as well as statistical formal requirements, and serving to operate within the framework of the dynamical systems theory, with a certain emphasis placed on…

Physics and Society · Physics 2017-06-30 Adam Gadomski , Marcel Ausloos , Tahlia Casey