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Data-driven modeling based on machine learning (ML) is showing enormous potential for weather forecasting. Rapid progress has been made with impressive results for some applications. The uptake of ML methods could be a game-changer for the…

The forecasting skill of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models critically depends on the accurate initial conditions, also known as analysis, provided by data assimilation (DA). Traditional DA methods often face a trade-off between…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-11-28 Yanfei Xiang , Weixin Jin , Haiyu Dong , Mingliang Bai , Zuliang Fang , Pengcheng Zhao , Hongyu Sun , Kit Thambiratnam , Qi Zhang , Xiaomeng Huang

Weather forecasting is critical for a range of human activities including transportation, agriculture, industry, as well as the safety of the general public. Machine learning models have the potential to transform the complex weather…

The demand for high-resolution information on climate change is critical for accurate projections and decision-making. Presently, this need is addressed through high-resolution climate models or downscaling. High-resolution models are…

Weather forecasting traditionally relies on numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems that integrates global observational systems, data assimilation (DA), and forecasting models. Despite steady improvements in forecast accuracy over…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-17 Xiuyu Sun , Xiaohui Zhong , Xiaoze Xu , Yuanqing Huang , Hao Li , J. David Neelin , Deliang Chen , Jie Feng , Wei Han , Libo Wu , Yuan Qi

Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) has advanced significantly in recent decades but still faces challenges in accuracy, computational efficiency, and scalability. Data-driven weather models have shown great promise, sometimes surpassing…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-03-18 Animesh Choudhury , Jagabandhu Panda

The forecast accuracy of machine learning (ML) weather prediction models is improving rapidly, leading many to speak of a "second revolution in weather forecasting". With numerous methods being developed and limited physical guarantees…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-01-24 Olivier C. Pasche , Jonathan Wider , Zhongwei Zhang , Jakob Zscheischler , Sebastian Engelke

The rapid rise of deep learning (DL) in numerical weather prediction (NWP) has led to a proliferation of models which forecast atmospheric variables with comparable or superior skill than traditional physics-based NWP. However, among these…

Weather prediction is a critical task for human society, where impressive progress has been made by training artificial intelligence weather prediction (AIWP) methods with reanalysis data. However, reliance on reanalysis data limits the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-21 Junchao Gong , Jingyi Xu , Ben Fei , Fenghua Ling , Wenlong Zhang , Kun Chen , Wanghan Xu , Weidong Yang , Xiaokang Yang , Lei Bai

As artificial intelligence (AI) continues to rapidly evolve, the realm of Earth and atmospheric sciences is increasingly adopting data-driven models, powered by progressive developments in deep learning (DL). Specifically, DL techniques are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-07 Shengchao Chen , Guodong Long , Jing Jiang , Dikai Liu , Chengqi Zhang

Data assimilation (DA) is a fundamental component of modern weather prediction, yet it remains a major computational bottleneck in machine learning (ML)-based forecasting pipelines due to reliance on traditional variational methods. Recent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-09 Ran Cheng , Lailai Zhu

Deep-learning (DL) weather prediction models offer some notable advantages over traditional physics-based models, including auto-differentiability and low computational cost, enabling detailed diagnostics of forecast errors. Using our…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-07-23 Uros Perkan , Ziga Zaplotnik , Gregor Skok

The weather forecasting system is important for science and society, and significant achievements have been made in applying artificial intelligence (AI) to medium-range weather forecasting. However, existing AI-based weather forecasting…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-12-05 Kun Chen , Lei Bai , Fenghua Ling , Peng Ye , Tao Chen , Hang Fan , Hao Chen , Yi Xiao , Kang Chen , Tao Han , Jing-Jia Luo , Wanli Ouyang

Recent advances in AI-based weather prediction have led to the development of artificial intelligence weather prediction (AIWP) models with competitive forecast skill compared to traditional NWP models, but with substantially reduced…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-10-30 Nicholas Loveday , Tracy Hertneky

As in many other areas of engineering and applied science, Machine Learning (ML) is having a profound impact in the domain of Weather and Climate Prediction. A very recent development in this area has been the emergence of fully data-driven…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-06 Massimo Bonavita

Skilful Machine Learned weather forecasts have challenged our approach to numerical weather prediction, demonstrating competitive performance compared to traditional physics-based approaches. Data-driven systems have been trained to…

Over the past few years, machine learning-based data-driven weather prediction has been transforming operational weather forecasting by providing more accurate forecasts while using a mere fraction of computing power compared to traditional…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-08-27 Zekun Ni , Jonathan Weyn , Hang Zhang , Yanfei Xiang , Jiang Bian , Weixin Jin , Kit Thambiratnam , Qi Zhang , Haiyu Dong , Hongyu Sun

Data-driven artificial intelligence (AI) models have made significant advancements in weather forecasting, particularly in medium-range and nowcasting. However, most data-driven weather forecasting models are black-box systems that focus on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-14 Wanghan Xu , Fenghua Ling , Wenlong Zhang , Tao Han , Hao Chen , Wanli Ouyang , Lei Bai

In recent years, Artificial Intelligence Weather Prediction (AIWP) models have achieved performance comparable to, or even surpassing, traditional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models by leveraging reanalysis data. However, a…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-12-25 Pengcheng Zhao , Jiang Bian , Zekun Ni , Weixin Jin , Jonathan Weyn , Zuliang Fang , Siqi Xiang , Haiyu Dong , Bin Zhang , Hongyu Sun , Kit Thambiratnam , Qi Zhang

Accurate weather and climate modeling is critical for both scientific advancement and safeguarding communities against environmental risks. Traditional approaches rely heavily on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, which simulate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-13 Muhammad Akhtar Munir , Fahad Shahbaz Khan , Salman Khan
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