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Opinion Dynamics lacks a theoretical basis. In this article, I propose to use a decision-theoretic framework, based on the updating of subjective probabilities, as that basis. We will see we get a basic tool for a better understanding of…

Physics and Society · Physics 2012-11-21 Andre C. R. Martins

A rising topic in computational journalism is how to enhance the diversity in news served to subscribers to foster exploration behavior in news reading. Despite the success of preference learning in personalized news recommendation, their…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-07-03 Rikiya Takahashi , Shunan Zhang

Summary statistics of the likelihood, such as the Bayesian evidence, offer a principled way of comparing models and assessing tension between, or within, the results of physical experiments. Noisy realisations of the data induce scatter in…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2021-04-30 B. Joachimi , F. Köhlinger , W. Handley , P. Lemos

The weighted median mechanism provides a robust alternative to weighted averaging in opinion dynamics. Existing models, however, are predominantly formulated on pairwise interaction graphs, which limits their ability to represent…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-01-13 Lingrui Chen , Xu Zhang , Fanpeng Song , Fang Wang , Cunquan Qu , Zhixin Liu

Estimating the state of an environment from high-dimensional, multimodal, and noisy observations is a fundamental challenge in reinforcement learning (RL). Traditional approaches rely on probabilistic models to account for the uncertainty,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-13 Alfredo Reichlin , Adriano Pacciarelli , Danica Kragic , Miguel Vasco

General nonlinear continuous-time systems are considered for which its state is estimated via a packet-based communication network. We assume that the system has multiple sensor nodes, affected by measurement noise, which can transmit at…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-12-09 Koen J. A. Scheres , Michelle S. Chong , Romain Postoyan , W. P. Maurice H. Heemels

The abundance of data produced daily from large variety of sources has boosted the need of novel approaches on causal inference analysis from observational data. Observational data often contain noisy or missing entries. Moreover, causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-03-14 Fani Tsapeli , Peter Tino , Mirco Musolesi

Visual sentiment analysis has received increasing attention in recent years. However, the dataset's quality is a concern because the sentiment labels are crowd-sourcing, subjective, and prone to mistakes, and poses a severe threat to the…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-01-28 Wei Zhu , Zihe Zheng , Haitian Zheng , Hanjia Lyu , Jiebo Luo

Spontaneous speech emotion data usually contain perceptual grades where graders assign emotion score after listening to the speech files. Such perceptual grades introduce uncertainty in labels due to grader opinion variation. Grader…

Sound · Computer Science 2025-04-01 Vikramjit Mitra , Amrit Romana , Dung T. Tran , Erdrin Azemi

Time-varying linear state-space models are powerful tools for obtaining mathematically interpretable representations of neural signals. For example, switching and decomposed models describe complex systems using latent variables that evolve…

In modern financial markets, news plays a critical role in shaping investor sentiment and influencing stock price movements. However, most existing studies aggregate daily news sentiment into a single score, potentially overlooking…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2025-10-09 Qizhao Chen

This paper builds Wasserstein ambiguity sets for the unknown probability distribution of dynamic random variables leveraging noisy partial-state observations. The constructed ambiguity sets contain the true distribution of the data with…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-07-21 Dimitris Boskos , Jorge Cortés , Sonia Martínez

In the following paper, we use a topic modeling algorithm and sentiment scoring methods to construct a novel metric that serves as a leading indicator in recession prediction models. We hypothesize that the inclusion of such a sentiment…

Applications · Statistics 2018-06-01 Melody Y. Huang , Randall R. Rojas , Patrick D. Convery

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are nonlinear dynamical models commonly used in the machine learning and dynamical systems literature to represent complex dynamical or sequential relationships between variables. More recently, as deep…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-08 Patrick L. McDermott , Christopher K. Wikle

Extensive research on target-dependent sentiment classification (TSC) has led to strong classification performances in domains where authors tend to explicitly express sentiment about specific entities or topics, such as in reviews or on…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-05-21 Felix Hamborg , Karsten Donnay , Bela Gipp

We propose new Degroot-type social learning models with feedback in a continuous time, to investigate the effect of a noisy information source on consensus formation in a social network. Unlike the standard Degroot framework, noisy…

Physics and Society · Physics 2022-03-02 Tushar Vaidya , Thiparat Chotibut , Georgios Piliouras

Complex systems, such as airplanes, cars, or financial markets, produce multivariate time series data consisting of a large number of system measurements over a period of time. Such data can be interpreted as a sequence of states, where…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-25 Saachi Jain , David Hallac , Rok Sosic , Jure Leskovec

The aim of the present study is to detect abrupt trend changes in the mean of a multidimensional sequential signal. Directly inspired by papers of Fernhead and Liu ([4] and [5]), this work describes the signal in a hierarchical manner : the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-11 Olivier Sorba , C Geissler

To identify the main mechanisms underlying complex opinion formation processes in social systems, researchers have long been exploring simple mechanistic mathematical models. Most existing opinion dynamics models are built on a common…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2022-12-20 Wenjun Mei , Francesco Bullo , Ge Chen , Julien Hendrickx , Florian Dörfler

Prediction polling is an increasingly popular form of crowdsourcing in which multiple participants estimate the probability or magnitude of some future event. These estimates are then aggregated into a single forecast. Historically,…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-04-25 Ville A. Satopää , Shane T. Jensen , Robin Pemantle , Lyle H. Ungar