English
Related papers

Related papers: Conformal prediction for full and sparse polynomia…

200 papers

Bayesian analysis enables combining prior knowledge with measurement data to learn model parameters. Commonly, one resorts to computing the maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimate, when only a point estimate of the parameters is of interest. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-08-08 Felix Schneider , Iason Papaioannou , Bruno Sudret , Gerhard Müller

The need to rapidly solve PDEs in engineering design workflows has spurred the rise of neural surrogate models. In particular, neural operator models provide a discretization-invariant surrogate by retaining the infinite-dimensional,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-12 Yash Patel , Ambuj Tewari

Given a sequence of observable variables $\{(x_1, y_1), \ldots, (x_n, y_n)\}$, the conformal prediction method estimates a confidence set for $y_{n+1}$ given $x_{n+1}$ that is valid for any finite sample size by merely assuming that the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-12 Etash Kumar Guha , Eugene Ndiaye , Xiaoming Huo

This paper introduces a new generalized polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) comprising measure-consistent multivariate orthonormal polynomials in dependent random variables. Unlike existing PCEs, whether classical or generalized, no…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-04-17 Sharif Rahman

Forecasting surgical instrument trajectories and predicting the next surgical action recently started to attract attention from the research community. Both these tasks are crucial for automation and assistance in endoscopy surgery. Given…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-03-13 Sara Sangalli , Gary Sarwin , Ertunc Erdil , Alessandro Carretta , Victor Staartjes , Carlo Serra , Ender Konukoglu

The spatiotemporal resolution of Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) plays important roles in the mathematical description of the world's physical phenomena. In general, scientists and engineers solve PDEs numerically by the use of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-06-29 Lucas Meyer , Marc Schouler , Robert Alexander Caulk , Alejandro Ribés , Bruno Raffin

In an ever-increasing interest for Machine Learning (ML) and a favorable data development context, we here propose an original methodology for data-based prediction of two-dimensional physical fields. Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE),…

Computational Physics · Physics 2021-02-03 Rem-Sophia Mouradi , Cédric Goeury , Olivier Thual , Fabrice Zaoui , Pablo Tassi

Conformal prediction provides a framework for uncertainty quantification, specifically in the forms of prediction intervals and sets with distribution-free guaranteed coverage. While recent cross-conformal techniques such as CV+ and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-01 Panisara Meehinkong , Donlapark Ponnoprat

Conformal prediction is a popular method to construct prediction intervals with marginal coverage guarantees from black-box machine learning models. In applications with potentially high-impact events, such as flooding or financial crises,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-02 Olivier C. Pasche , Henry Lam , Sebastian Engelke

Recently, the use of Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) has been increasing to study the uncertainty in mathematical models for a wide range of applications and several extensions of the original PCE technique have been developed to deal with…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2014-06-23 Maria Navarro , Jeroen Witteveen , Joke Blom

Uncertainty quantification seeks to provide a quantitative means to understand complex systems that are impacted by parametric uncertainty. The polynomial chaos method is a computational approach to solve stochastic partial differential…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-09-27 Melvin Leok , Gautam Wilkins

Growing uncertainty from renewable energy integration and distributed energy resources motivate the need for advanced tools to quantify the effect of uncertainty and assess the risks it poses to secure system operation. Polynomial chaos…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-10-16 David Métivier , Marc Vuffray , Sidhant Misra

Conformal prediction has emerged as a cutting-edge methodology in statistics and machine learning, providing prediction intervals with finite-sample frequentist coverage guarantees. Yet, its interplay with Bayesian statistics, often…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-27 Nina Deliu , Brunero Liseo

Systems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs) require computationally intensive numerical solvers to predict spatiotemporal field evolution. While machine learning (ML) surrogates offer faster solutions, autoregressive inference…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-08 Ishan Khurjekar , Indrashish Saha , Lori Graham-Brady , Somdatta Goswami

Chaotic systems pose fundamental challenges for data-driven dynamics discovery, as small modeling errors lead to exponentially growing trajectory discrepancies. Since exact long-term prediction is unattainable, it is natural to ask what a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-15 Joon-Hyuk Ko , Andrus Giraldo , Deok-Sun Lee

Conformal Predictors (CP) are wrappers around ML models, providing error guarantees under weak assumptions on the data distribution. They are suitable for a wide range of problems, from classification and regression to anomaly detection.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-06 Giovanni Cherubin , Konstantinos Chatzikokolakis , Martin Jaggi

Conformal prediction is a powerful tool to generate uncertainty sets with guaranteed coverage using any predictive model, under the assumption that the training and test data are i.i.d.. Recently, it has been shown that adversarial examples…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-01 Ge Yan , Yaniv Romano , Tsui-Wei Weng

It has been shown that cooperative coevolution (CC) can effectively deal with large scale optimization problems (LSOPs) through a divide-and-conquer strategy. However, its performance is severely restricted by the current…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2018-03-05 Bei Pang , Zhigang Ren , Yongsheng Liang , An Chen

Conformal prediction is widely used to equip black-box machine learning models with uncertainty quantification, offering formal coverage guarantees under exchangeable data. However, these guarantees fail when faced with subpopulation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-10 Nien-Shao Wang , Duygu Nur Yaldiz , Yavuz Faruk Bakman , Sai Praneeth Karimireddy

Conformal prediction, a post-hoc, distribution-free, finite-sample method of uncertainty quantification that offers formal coverage guarantees under the assumption of data exchangeability. Unfortunately, the resulting uncertainty regions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Nikolaos Bousias , Lars Lindemann , George Pappas