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We demonstrate that the processes underlying on-line auction price bids and many other longitudinal data can be represented by an empirical first order stochastic ordinary differential equation with time-varying coefficients and a smooth…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-11-13 Hans-Georg Müller , Fang Yao

We here propose a model to simulate the process of opinion formation, which accounts for the mutual affinity between interacting agents. Opinion and affinity evolve self-consistently, manifesting a highly non trivial interplay. A continuous…

Physics and Society · Physics 2009-09-29 Franco Bagnoli , Timoteo Carletti , Duccio Fanelli , Alessio Guarino , Andrea Guazzini

Social dynamics is concerned primarily with interactions among individuals and the resulting group behaviors, modeling the temporal evolution of social systems via the interactions of individuals within these systems. In particular, the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-11-08 Zhen Xu , Wen Dong , Sargur Srihari

We introduce a Langevin equation characterized by a time dependent drift. By assuming a temporal power-law dependence of the drift we show that a great variety of behavior is observed in the dynamics of the variance of the process. In…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-31 Fabrizio Lillo , Rosario N. Mantegna

Diffusion models are a class of probabilistic generative models that have been widely used as a prior for image processing tasks like text conditional generation and inpainting. We demonstrate that these models can be adapted to make…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-14 Marc Finzi , Anudhyan Boral , Andrew Gordon Wilson , Fei Sha , Leonardo Zepeda-Núñez

We propose a model for diffusion of two opposite opinions. Here, the decision to be taken by each individual is a random variable which depends on the tendency of the population, as well on its own trend characteristic. The influence of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-01-08 Manuel González-Navarrete , Rodrigo Lambert

This paper presents a theoretical convergence analysis for an opinion-action coevolution model that integrates the opinion updating rule of the Hegselmann-Krause model with a utility-based decision-making mechanism. The model is…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-04-08 Chen Song , Angela Fontan , Rong Su , Julien M. Hendrickx , Vladimir Cvetkovic , Karl H. Johansson

We propose and analyze a nonlinear opinion dynamics model for an agent making decisions about a continuous distribution of options in the presence of input. Inspired by perceptual decision-making, we develop new theory for opinion formation…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2024-11-28 Giovanna Amorim , Anastasia Bizyaeva , Alessio Franci , Naomi Ehrich Leonard

The bounded confidence model of opinion dynamics, introduced by Deffuant et al, is a stochastic model for the evolution of continuous-valued opinions within a finite group of peers. We prove that, as time goes to infinity, the opinions…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-04-19 Javier Gómez-Serrano , Carl Graham , Jean-Yves Le Boudec

In the age of technology, individuals accelerate their biased gathering of information which in turn leads to a population becoming extreme and more polarized. Here we study a partial differential equation model for opinion dynamics that…

Physics and Society · Physics 2024-02-08 Christian Koertje , Hiroki Sayama

We present a concise, self-contained derivation of diffusion-based generative models. Starting from basic properties of Gaussian distributions (densities, quadratic expectations, re-parameterisation, products, and KL divergences), we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-18 Sepehr Maleki , Negar Pourmoazemi

What are the key-features that enable an information diffusion model to explain the inherent dynamic, and often competitive, nature of real-world propagation phenomena? In this paper we aim to answer this question by proposing a novel class…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2018-05-30 Antonio Caliò , Andrea Tagarelli

Predictions in digital platforms must adapt over time as individuals update their beliefs through social interactions. At the same time, changing predictions alter the content people are exposed to and, consequently, the very beliefs they…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2026-05-07 Jiduan Wu , Rediet Abebe , Celestine Mendler-Dünner

We extend a classical model of continuous opinion formation to explicitly include an age-structured population. We begin by considering a stochastic differential equation model which incorporates ageing dynamics and birth/death processes,…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2026-01-14 Andrew Nugent , Susana N. Gomes , Marie-Therese Wolfram

People's opinions on a wide range of topics often evolve over time through their interactions with others. Models of opinion dynamics primarily focus on one-dimensional opinions, which represent opinions on one topic. However, opinions on…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-09-01 Grace Jingying Li , Jiajie Luo , Weiqi Chu

Representations based on random walks can exploit discrete data distributions for clustering and classification. We extend such representations from discrete to continuous distributions. Transition probabilities are now calculated using a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-12-12 Chen-Hsiang Yeang , Martin Szummer

Agent-based models of opinion dynamics allow one to examine the spread of opinions between entities and to study phenomena such as consensus, polarization, and fragmentation. By studying a model of opinion dynamics on a social network, one…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-03-22 Grace J. Li , Mason A. Porter

Understanding nonlinear social contagion dynamics on dynamical networks, such as opinion formation, is crucial for gaining new insights into consensus and polarization. Similar to threshold-dependent complex contagions, the nonlinearity in…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-04-24 Xunlong Wang , Feng Fu , Bin Wu

A model needs to make verifiable predictions to have any scientific value. In opinion dynamics, the study of how individuals exchange opinions with one another, there are many theoretical models which attempt to model opinion exchange, one…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-01-11 Johnathan A. Adams , Gentry White , Robyn P. Araujo

We model two time and space scales discrete observations by using a unique continuous diffusion process with time dependent coefficient. We define new parameters for the large scale model as functions of the small scale distribution…

Methodology · Statistics 2009-09-09 V. Calian , G. Stefansson , L. P. Folkow , A. S. Blix