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Variable order sequence modeling is an important problem in artificial and natural intelligence. While overcomplete Hidden Markov Models (HMMs), in theory, have the capacity to represent long-term temporal structure, they often fail to…

This report describes a new technique for inducing the structure of Hidden Markov Models from data which is based on the general `model merging' strategy (Omohundro 1992). The process begins with a maximum likelihood HMM that directly…

cmp-lg · Computer Science 2008-02-03 Andreas Stolcke , Stephen M. Omohundro

We show how models for prediction with expert advice can be defined concisely and clearly using hidden Markov models (HMMs); standard HMM algorithms can then be used to efficiently calculate, among other things, how the expert predictions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2008-02-15 Wouter Koolen , Steven de Rooij

Monitoring of industrial processes is a critical capability in industry and in government to ensure reliability of production cycles, quick emergency response, and national security. Process monitoring allows users to gauge the progress of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-29 Erik Skau , Andrew Hollis , Stephan Eidenbenz , Kim Rasmussen , Boian Alexandrov

Time series classification is one of the very popular machine learning tasks. In this paper, we explore the application of Hidden Markov Model (HMM) for time series classification. We distinguish between two modes of HMM application. The…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-29 Jakub Michał Bilski , Agnieszka Jastrzębska

Pairwise Markov Models (PMMs) extend the wellknown Hidden Markov Models (HMMs). Being significantly more general, PMMs enable several types of processing, like Bayesian filtering or smoothing, similar to those used in HMMs. In this paper,…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-02-13 Marc Escudier , Ikram Abdelkefi , Clément Fernandes , Wojciech Pieczynski

1. Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are powerful tools for modelling time-series data with underlying state structure. However, selecting appropriate parametric forms for the state-dependent distributions is often challenging and can lead to…

This paper presents a novel methodology for modelling precipitation patterns in a specific geographical region using Hidden Markov Models (HMMs). Departing from conventional HMMs, where the hidden state process is assumed to be Markovian,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-05 M. L. Gamiz , D. Montoro , M. C Segovia-Garcia

We present a systematic study of quantum system compression for the evolution of generic many-body problems. The necessary numerical simulations of such systems are seriously hindered by the exponential growth of the Hilbert space dimension…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2021-01-20 Robert L. Kosut , Tak-San Ho , Herschel Rabitz

The well-established methodology for the estimation of hidden semi-Markov models (HSMMs) as hidden Markov models (HMMs) with extended state spaces is further developed to incorporate covariate influences across all aspects of the state…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-24 Jan-Ole Koslik

Traditional approaches in mental health research apply General Linear Models (GLM) to describe the longitudinal dynamics of observed psycho-behavioral measurements (questionnaire summary scores). Similarly, GLMs are also applied to…

Hidden Markov Chains (HMC) and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) are two well known tools for predicting time series. Even though these solutions were developed independently in distinct communities, they share some similarities when…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-08-18 François Desbouvries , Yohan Petetin , Achille Salaün

Motivated by Hubert's segmentation procedure we discuss the application of hidden Markov models (HMM) to the segmentation of hydrological and enviromental time series. We use a HMM algorithm which segments time series of several hundred…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2011-11-09 Ath. Kehagias

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) and their extensions have proven to be powerful tools for classification of observations that stem from systems with temporal dependence as they take into account that observations close in time are likely…

Applications · Statistics 2021-11-22 Sofia Ruiz-Suarez , Vianey Leos-Barajas , Juan Manuel Morales

Among the predictive hidden Markov models that describe a given stochastic process, the {\epsilon}-machine is strongly minimal in that it minimizes every R\'enyi-based memory measure. Quantum models can be smaller still. In contrast with…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2019-10-02 Samuel Loomis , James P. Crutchfield

In modelling complex processes, the potential past data that influence future expectations are immense. Models that track all this data are not only computationally wasteful but also shed little light on what past data most influence the…

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) and conditional random fields (CRFs) are two popular techniques for modeling sequential data. Inference algorithms designed over CRFs and HMMs allow estimation of the state sequence given the observations. In…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-02-20 Gungor Polatkan , Oncel Tuzel

Deep learning models have achieved tremendous success in most of the industries in recent years. The evolution of these models has also led to an increase in the model size and energy requirement, making it difficult to deploy in production…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-24 Aayush Saxena , Arit Kumar Bishwas , Ayush Ashok Mishra , Ryan Armstrong

Labeling of sequential data is a prevalent meta-problem for a wide range of real world applications. While the first-order Hidden Markov Models (HMM) provides a fundamental approach for unsupervised sequential labeling, the basic model does…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-04-08 Maoying Qiao , Wei Bian , Richard Yida Xu , Dacheng Tao

This paper intends to apply the Hidden Markov Model into stock market and and make predictions. Moreover, four different methods of improvement, which are GMM-HMM, XGB-HMM, GMM-HMM+LSTM and XGB-HMM+LSTM, will be discussed later with the…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2021-04-21 Mingwen Liu , Junbang Huo , Yulin Wu , Jinge Wu