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In economic program evaluation, it is common to obtain panel data in which outcomes are indicators that an individual has reached an absorbing state. For example, they may indicate whether an individual has exited a period of unemployment,…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-26 Ben Deaner , Hyejin Ku

A key element in the education of youths is their sensitization to historical and artistic heritage. We analyze a field experiment conducted in Florence (Italy) to assess how appropriate incentives assigned to high-school classes may induce…

Applications · Statistics 2022-05-09 Silvia Noirjean , Marco Mariani , Alessandra Mattei , Fabrizia Mealli

Many empirical studies estimate causal effects in environments where economic units interact through spatial or network connections. In such settings, outcomes are jointly determined, and treatment induced shocks propagate across…

General Economics · Economics 2026-01-05 Mariluz Mate

Estimating the health effects of multiple air pollutants is a crucial problem in public health, but one that is difficult due to unmeasured confounding bias. Motivated by this issue, we develop a framework for partial identification of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-23 Suyeon Kang , Alexander Franks , Michelle Audirac , Danielle Braun , Joseph Antonelli

I set up a potential outcomes framework to analyze spillover effects using instrumental variables. I characterize the population compliance types in a setting in which spillovers can occur on both treatment take-up and outcomes, and provide…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-12-15 Gonzalo Vazquez-Bare

This paper develops a model of \textit{identification design} and applies it to robust causal inference in microeconometrics. The decision maker observes the population distribution of signals generated by an information structure and ranks…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-04-20 Maxwell Rosenthal

Causal effect estimation is important for many tasks in the natural and social sciences. We design algorithms for the continuous partial identification problem: bounding the effects of multivariate, continuous treatments when unmeasured…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-18 Kirtan Padh , Jakob Zeitler , David Watson , Matt Kusner , Ricardo Silva , Niki Kilbertus

Many public health interventions are conducted in settings where individuals are connected to one another and the intervention assigned to randomly selected individuals may spill over to other individuals they are connected to. In these…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-14 Junhan Fang , Donna Spiegelman , Ashley Buchanan , Laura Forastiere

Causal inference in a program evaluation setting faces the problem of external validity when the treatment effect in the target population is different from the treatment effect identified from the population of which the sample is…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-23 Kyungchul Song , Zhengfei Yu

The bulk of causal inference studies rule out the presence of interference between units. However, in many real-world scenarios, units are interconnected by social, physical, or virtual ties, and the effect of the treatment can spill from…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-03 Falco J. Bargagli-Stoffi , Costanza Tortù , Laura Forastiere

Recommender systems recommend objects regardless of potential adverse effects of their overcrowding. We address this shortcoming by introducing crowd-avoiding recommendation where each object can be shared by only a limited number of users…

Physics and Society · Physics 2013-06-18 Stanislao Gualdi , Matus Medo , Yi-Cheng Zhang

We consider identification of peer effects under peer group miss-specification. Two leading cases are missing data and peer group uncertainty. Missing data can take the form of some individuals being entirely absent from the data. The…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-05-03 Christiern Rose , Lizi Yu

The difference-in-differences (DID) design is one of the most popular methods used in empirical economics research. However, there is almost no work examining what the DID method identifies in the presence of a misclassified treatment…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-01 Augustine Denteh , Désiré Kédagni

In recent years, there has been growing interest in studying games on multiplex networks that account for interactions across linked social contexts. However, little is known about how potential cross-context interference, or spillover, of…

Physics and Society · Physics 2017-10-11 Tommy Khoo , Feng Fu , Scott Pauls

The study of causal effects in the presence of unmeasured spatially varying confounders has garnered increasing attention. However, a general framework for identifiability, which is critical for reliable causal inference from observational…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-27 Tommy Tang , Xinran Li , Bo Li

This paper develops a general framework for identifying causal effects in settings with spillovers, where both outcomes and endogenous treatment decisions are influenced by peers within a known group. It introduces the generalized local…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-01 Huan Wu

We explore the international transmission of monetary policy and central bank information shocks originating from the United States and the euro area. Employing a panel vector autoregression, we use macroeconomic and financial variables…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-08-06 Michael Pfarrhofer , Anna Stelzer

Completely randomized experiments, originally developed by Fisher and Neyman in the 1930s, are still widely used in practice, even in online experimentation. However, such designs are of limited value for answering standard questions in…

In many scenarios, such as the evaluation of place-based policies, potential outcomes are not only dependent upon the unit's own treatment but also its neighbors' treatment. Despite this, "difference-in-differences" (DID) type estimators…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-30 Ruonan Xu

Causal inference in a sub-population involves identifying the causal effect of an intervention on a specific subgroup, which is distinguished from the whole population through the influence of systematic biases in the sampling process.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-10 Amir Mohammad Abouei , Ehsan Mokhtarian , Negar Kiyavash