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Background and objective: Uncertainty quantification is a pivotal field that contributes to realizing reliable and robust systems. It becomes instrumental in fortifying safe decisions by providing complementary information, particularly…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-03-19 Jamil Fayyad , Shadi Alijani , Homayoun Najjaran

In this paper, we consider the uncertainty quantification problem for regression models. Specifically, we consider an individual calibration objective for characterizing the quantiles of the prediction model. While such an objective is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-27 Shang Liu , Zhongze Cai , Xiaocheng Li

We propose a framework for planning in unknown dynamic environments with probabilistic safety guarantees using conformal prediction. Particularly, we design a model predictive controller (MPC) that uses i) trajectory predictions of the…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-06-09 Lars Lindemann , Matthew Cleaveland , Gihyun Shim , George J. Pappas

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a powerful methodology for the approximation of posterior distributions. However, the iterative nature of MCMC does not naturally facilitate its use with modern highly parallel computation on HPC and cloud…

Recent advances in uncertainty quantification increasingly emphasise the distinction between aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in machine learning, motivating the need for more unified frameworks. However, despite much progress in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Yu Chen , Scott Ferson

We propose principled prediction intervals to quantify the uncertainty of a large class of synthetic control predictions (or estimators) in settings with staggered treatment adoption, offering precise non-asymptotic coverage probability…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-02-04 Matias D. Cattaneo , Yingjie Feng , Filippo Palomba , Rocio Titiunik

In this paper, a self-triggered adaptive model predictive control (MPC) algorithm is proposed for constrained discrete-time nonlinear systems subject to parametric uncertainties and additive disturbances. To bound the parametric…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-12-17 Kunwu Zhang , Changxin Liu , Yang Shi

We consider the problem of optimizing the economic performance of nonlinear constrained systems subject to uncertain time-varying parameters and bounded disturbances. In particular, we propose an adaptive economic model predictive control…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-01-16 Maximilian Degner , Raffaele Soloperto , Melanie N. Zeilinger , John Lygeros , Johannes Köhler

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods offer a principled approach to Bayesian uncertainty quantification but are traditionally limited by the need for full-batch gradient evaluations. We introduce a scalable variant by incorporating…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-20 Andrew Millard , Zheng Zhao , Joshua Murphy , Simon Maskell

Biopharmaceutical products, particularly monoclonal antibodies (mAbs), have gained prominence in the pharmaceutical market due to their high specificity and efficacy. As these products are projected to constitute a substantial portion of…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2024-09-05 Thanh Tung Khuat , Robert Bassett , Ellen Otte , Bogdan Gabrys

A centralized model predictive controller (MPC), which is unaware of local uncertainties, for an affine discrete time nonlinear system is presented. The local uncertainties are assumed to be matched, bounded and structured. In order to…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-09-15 Prabhat K. Mishra , Tixian Wang , Mattia Gazzola , Girish Chowdhary

Model Predictive Control (MPC) can efficiently control constrained systems in real-time applications. MPC feedback law for a linear system with linear inequality constraints can be explicitly computed off-line, which results in an off-line…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2016-06-13 Andrew Knyazev , Peizhen Zhu , Stefano Di Cairano

This paper studies the use of conformal prediction (CP), an emerging probabilistic forecasting method, for day-ahead photovoltaic power predictions to enhance participation in electricity markets. First, machine learning models are used to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-01 Yvet Renkema , Nico Brinkel , Tarek Alskaif

This paper presents a novel end-to-end framework for closed-form computation and visualization of critical point uncertainty in 2D uncertain scalar fields. Critical points are fundamental topological descriptors used in the visualization…

Model Predictive Control (MPC) is a versatile approach capable of accommodating diverse control requirements that holds significant promise for a broad spectrum of industrial applications. Noteworthy challenges associated with MPC include…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-04-28 Ryuta Moriyasu , Sho Kawaguchi , Kenji Kashima

Conformal prediction (CP) offers a principled framework for uncertainty quantification, but it fails to guarantee coverage when faced with missing covariates. In addressing the heterogeneity induced by various missing patterns,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-17 Jiarong Fan , Juhyun Park. Thi Phuong Thuy Vo , Nicolas Brunel

The paper proposes a computationally efficient electricity market simulation tool (MST) suitable for future grid scenario analysis. The market model is based on a unit commitment (UC) problem and takes into account the uptake of emerging…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-06-13 Shariq Riaz , Gregor Verbic , Archie C. Chapman

Cognitive diagnosis models have been widely used in different areas, especially intelligent education, to measure users' proficiency levels on knowledge concepts, based on which users can get personalized instructions. As the measurement is…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2024-03-25 Fei Wang , Qi Liu , Enhong Chen , Chuanren Liu , Zhenya Huang , Jinze Wu , Shijin Wang

Linear Predictive Clustering (LPC) partitions samples based on shared linear relationships between feature and target variables, with numerous applications including marketing, medicine, and education. Greedy optimization methods, commonly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-08 Jiazhou Liang , Hassan Khurram , Scott Sanner

Uncertainty-aware semantic segmentation of the point clouds includes the predictive uncertainty estimation and the uncertainty-guided model optimization. One key challenge in the task is the efficiency of point-wise predictive distribution…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-01-20 Chao Qi , Jianqin Yin