Related papers: Trade relationships during and after a crisis
Motivated by the recently experienced systemic shocks (the COVID-19 pandemic and the full-fledged Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine) - that have created new forms of uncertainties to our supplies - this paper explores the supply…
Physical risks, such as droughts, floods, rising temperatures, earthquakes, infrastructure failures, and geopolitical conflicts, can ripple through global supply chains, raising costs, and constraining production across industries.…
This study decomposes the bilateral trade flows using a three-dimensional panel data model. Under the scenario that all three dimensions diverge to infinity, we propose an estimation approach to identify the number of global shocks and…
The dynamic network of relationships among corporations underlies cascading economic failures including the current economic crisis, and can be inferred from correlations in market value fluctuations. We analyze the time dependence of the…
The increasing integration of world economies, which organize in complex multilayer networks of interactions, is one of the critical factors for the global propagation of economic crises. We adopt the network science approach to quantify…
I present new evidence of the effects of climate shocks on conflict. Focusing on political violence in Africa, I find that El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) shocks during the crop-growing season affect harvest-related conflict in…
Buyer--seller relationships among firms can be regarded as a longitudinal network in which the connectivity pattern evolves as each firm receives productivity shocks. Based on a data set describing the evolution of buyer--seller links among…
Supply chain disruptions cause shortages of raw material and products. To increase resilience, i.e., the ability to cope with shocks, substituting goods in established supply chains can become an effective alternative to creating new…
Using administrative data on the universe of inter-firm transactions in Spain, we show that firms learn to import from their domestic suppliers and customers. Our identification strategy exploits the panel structure of the data, the…
Business cycles tend to comove across countries. However, standard models that attribute comovement to propagation of exogenous shocks struggle to generate a level of comovement that is as high as in the data. In this paper, we consider…
The aim of this study is to contribute to the theory of exogenous economic shocks and their equivalents in an attempt to explain business cycle fluctuations, which still do not have a clear explanation. To this end the author has developed…
Natural and anthropogenic disasters frequently affect both the supply and demand side of an economy. A striking recent example is the Covid-19 pandemic which has created severe disruptions to economic output in most countries. These direct…
We study the disequilibrium dynamics of a stylised model of production networks in which firms use perishable and non-substitutable intermediate inputs, so that adverse idiosyncratic productivity shocks can trigger downstream shortages and…
Gender segmentation in labor markets shapes the local effects of international trade. We develop a theory that combines exports with gender-segmented labor markets and show that, in this framework, foreign demand shocks may either increase…
In the international oil trade network (iOTN), trade shocks triggered by extreme events may spread over the entire network along the trade links of the central economies and even lead to the collapse of the whole system. In this study, we…
Where do new markets come from? I construct a network model in which national markets are nodes and flows of recorded music between them are links and conduct a longitudinal analysis of the global pattern of trade in the period 1976 to…
In this paper we analyse the bipartite Colombian firms-products network, throughout a period of five years, from 2010 to 2014. Our analysis depicts a strongly modular system, with several groups of firms specializing in the export of…
We introduce a parsimonious multi-sector model of international production and use it to study the impact of a disruption in the production of some goods propagates to other goods and consumers, and how that impact depends on the goods'…
The dynamics of collaboration networks of firms follow a life-cycle of growth and decline. That does not imply they also become less resilient. Instead, declining collaboration networks may still have the ability to mitigate shocks from…
What is the environmental impact of exports? Focusing on 2000-20, this paper combines customs, administrative, and census microdata to estimate employment elasticities with respect to exports. The findings show that municipalities that…