Related papers: A stable hothouse triggered by a tipping mechanism
We first recall fundamentals of elementary climate physics: solar constant, radiative balance, greenhouse effect, astronomical parameters of the climate (theory of Milankovitch). Without disputing the analyzes of climatologists and the…
We study the behaviour at tipping points close to (smoothed) non-smooth fold bifurcations in one-dimensional oscillatory forced systems. The focus is the Stommel-Box, and related climate models, which are piecewise-smooth continuous…
Traditionally stellar radiation has been the only heat source considered capable of determining global climate on long timescales. Here we show that terrestrial exoplanets orbiting low-mass stars may be tidally heated at high enough levels…
Global Climate Models are key tools for predicting the future response of the climate system to a variety of natural and anthropogenic forcings. Here we show how to use statistical mechanics to construct operators able to flexibly predict…
Rate-induced tipping (R-tipping) occurs when a ramp parameter changes rapidly enough to cause the system to tip between co-existing, attracting states, while noise-induced tipping (N-tipping) occurs when there are random transitions between…
In order to understand the climate on terrestrial planets orbiting nearby Sun-like stars, one would like to know their thermal inertia. We use a global climate model to simulate the thermal phase variations of Earth-analogs and test whether…
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports indicate that the global mean temperature is about one-degree Celsius higher than pre-industrial levels, that this increase is anthropogenic, and that there is a causal relationship…
Conventional definitions of habitability require abundant liquid surface water to exist continuously over geologic timescales. Water in each of its thermodynamic phases interacts with solar and thermal radiation and is the cause for strong…
Climate sensitivity is defined as the change in global mean equilibrium temperature after a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration and provides a simple measure of global warming. An early estimate of climate sensitivity, 1.5-4.5{\deg}C,…
We revisit a recent claim that the Earth's climate system is characterized by sensitive dependence to parameters; in particular, that the system exhibits an asymmetric, large-amplitude response to normally distributed feedback forcing. Such…
As a consequence of greenhouse forcing, all state of the art general circulation models predict a positive temperature trend that is greater for the troposphere than the surface. This predicted positive trend increases in value with…
We developed a coupled social-climate network model to understand the interaction between climate change opinion spread and the climate system and determine the role of this interaction in shaping collective actions and global temperature…
Several environmental tipping points and self-reinforcing feedback loops are still disregarded within the frequently used climate models. Thus, existing climate models are not very representative for providing projections of the conditions…
In nonlinear dynamical systems, tipping refers to a critical transition from one steady state to another, typically catastrophic, steady state, often resulting from a saddle-node bifurcation. Recently, the machine-learning framework of…
Planets similar to Earth - but slightly more irradiated - are expected to enter into a runaway greenhouse state, where all surface water rapidly evaporates, forming an optically thick H2O-dominated atmosphere. For Earth, this extreme…
We discuss how greenhouse gases affect radiation transfer in Earth's atmosphere. We explain how greenhouse gases like water vapor or carbon dioxide, differ from non-greenhouse gases like nitrogen or oxygen. Using simple thermodynamics and…
The provision of accurate methods for predicting the climate response to anthropogenic and natural forcings is a key contemporary scientific challenge. Using a simplified and efficient open-source general circulation model of the atmosphere…
Due to spatial scarcity and uncertainties in sediment data, initial and boundary conditions in deep-time climate simulations are not well constrained. On the other hand, the climate is a nonlinear system with a multitude of feedback…
Understanding the climate dynamics at the inner edge of the habitable zone (HZ) is crucial for predicting the habitability of rocky exoplanets. Previous studies using Global Climate Models (GCMs) have indicated that planets receiving high…
The ability of a planet to maintain surface water, key to life as we know it, depends on solar and planetary energy. As a star ages, it delivers more energy to a planet. As a planet ages it produces less internal heat, which leads to…