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Uncertainty quantification in a neural network is one of the most discussed topics for safety-critical applications. Though Neural Networks (NNs) have achieved state-of-the-art performance for many applications, they still provide…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-09 Mehedi Hasan , Abbas Khosravi , Ibrahim Hossain , Ashikur Rahman , Saeid Nahavandi

In this report, we present qualitative analysis of Monte Carlo (MC) dropout method for measuring model uncertainty in neural network (NN) models. We first consider the sources of uncertainty in NNs, and briefly review Bayesian Neural…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-06 Ronald Seoh

Traditional neural networks provide deterministic predictions without inherent uncertainty estimates. While Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) offer a principled approach to uncertainty quantification, their computational complexity limits…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-25 Rouaa Hoblos , Noura Dridi , Noureddine Zerhouni , Zeina Al Masry

Knowing the uncertainty associated with the output of a deep neural network is of paramount importance in making trustworthy decisions, particularly in high-stakes fields like medical diagnosis and autonomous systems. Monte Carlo Dropout…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-05-22 Hamzeh Asgharnezhad , Afshar Shamsi , Roohallah Alizadehsani , Arash Mohammadi , Hamid Alinejad-Rokny

Reliable uncertainty estimation is crucial for machine learning models, especially in safety-critical domains. While exact Bayesian inference offers a principled approach, it is often computationally infeasible for deep neural networks.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-18 Aslak Djupskås , Alexander Johannes Stasik , Signe Riemer-Sørensen

Monte Carlo dropout may effectively capture model uncertainty in deep learning, where a measure of uncertainty is obtained by using multiple instances of dropout at test time. However, Monte Carlo dropout is applied across the whole network…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-02-03 Liangping Ma , John Kaewell

The examination of uncertainty in the predictions of machine learning (ML) models is receiving increasing attention. One uncertainty modeling technique used for this purpose is Monte-Carlo (MC)-Dropout, where repeated predictions are…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-05-25 Florian Heidecker , Ahmad El-Khateeb , Bernhard Sick

Estimating predictive uncertainty is crucial for many computer vision tasks, from image classification to autonomous driving systems. Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is an sampling method for performing Bayesian inference. On the other hand,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-03 Diego Vergara , Sergio Hernández , Matias Valdenegro-Toro , Felipe Jorquera

Estimating epistemic uncertainty of models used in low-latency applications and Out-Of-Distribution samples detection is a challenge due to the computationally demanding nature of uncertainty estimation techniques. Estimating model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-28 Akshatha Kamath , Dwaraknath Gnaneshwar , Matias Valdenegro-Toro

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) includes the characterization, integration, and propagation of uncertainties that result from stochastic variations and a lack of knowledge or data in the natural world. Monte Carlo (MC) method is a…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-03 Jiaxin Zhang

Monte-Carlo (MC) Dropout provides a practical solution for estimating predictive distributions in deterministic neural networks. Traditional dropout, applied within the signal space, may fail to account for frequency-related noise common in…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-01-22 Tal Zeevi , Lawrence H. Staib , John A. Onofrey

Uncertainty approximation in text classification is an important area with applications in domain adaptation and interpretability. One of the most widely used uncertainty approximation methods is Monte Carlo (MC) Dropout, which is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-20 Andreas Nugaard Holm , Dustin Wright , Isabelle Augenstein

The Monte Carlo dropout method has proved to be a scalable and easy-to-use approach for estimating the uncertainty of deep neural network predictions. This approach was recently applied to Fault Detection and Di-agnosis (FDD) applications…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-09-11 Baihong Jin , Yingshui Tan , Yuxin Chen , Alberto Sangiovanni-Vincentelli

Among the various options to estimate uncertainty in deep neural networks, Monte-Carlo dropout is widely popular for its simplicity and effectiveness. However the quality of the uncertainty estimated through this method varies and choices…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-14 Francesco Verdoja , Ville Kyrki

This work addresses uncertainty quantification of electromagnetic devices determined by the eddy current problem. The multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method is used for the treatment of uncertain parameters while the devices are discretized…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2020-03-24 Armin Galetzka , Zeger Bontinck , Ulrich Römer , Sebastian Schöps

In this work, we consider the problem of estimating the probability distribution, the quantile or the conditional expectation above the quantile, the so called conditional-value-at-risk, of output quantities of complex random differential…

Computation · Statistics 2023-05-23 Quentin Ayoul-Guilmard , Sundar Ganesh , Sebastian Krumscheid , Fabio Nobile

Accurately predicting customer Lifetime Value (LTV) is crucial for companies to optimize their revenue strategies. Traditional deep learning models for LTV prediction are effective but typically provide only point estimates and fail to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-26 Xinzhe Cao , Yadong Xu , Xiaofeng Yang

Uncertainty quantification of machine learning and deep learning methods plays an important role in enhancing trust to the obtained result. In recent years, a numerous number of uncertainty quantification methods have been introduced. Monte…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-07 Afshar Shamsi , Hamzeh Asgharnezhad , AmirReza Tajally , Saeid Nahavandi , Henry Leung

Because of their robustness, efficiency and non-intrusiveness, Monte Carlo methods are probably the most popular approach in uncertainty quantification to computing expected values of quantities of interest (QoIs). Multilevel Monte Carlo…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-04-12 Marcus J. Grote , Simon Michel , Fabio Nobile

The multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method has proven to be an effective variance-reduction statistical method for Uncertainty quantification in PDE models. It combines approximations at different levels of accuracy using a hierarchy of…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-11-28 Santiago Badia , Jerrad Hampton , Javier Principe
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