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As large language models continue to be widely developed, robust uncertainty quantification techniques will become crucial for their safe deployment in high-stakes scenarios. In this work, we explore how conformal prediction can be used to…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-07-11 Bhawesh Kumar , Charlie Lu , Gauri Gupta , Anil Palepu , David Bellamy , Ramesh Raskar , Andrew Beam

How can we perform efficient inference and learning in directed probabilistic models, in the presence of continuous latent variables with intractable posterior distributions, and large datasets? We introduce a stochastic variational…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-13 Diederik P Kingma , Max Welling

We propose a variational Bayesian (VB) approach to learning distributions of latent variables in deep neural network (DNN) models for cross-domain knowledge transfer, to address acoustic mismatches between training and testing conditions.…

Audio and Speech Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-02-22 Hu Hu , Sabato Marco Siniscalchi , Chao-Han Huck Yang , Chin-Hui Lee

We present an algorithmic solution to the problem of incremental belief updating in the context of Monte Carlo inference in Bayesian statistical models represented by probabilistic programs. Given a model and a sample-approximated…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-13 David Tolpin

Predicting future frames for a video sequence is a challenging generative modeling task. Promising approaches include probabilistic latent variable models such as the Variational Auto-Encoder. While VAEs can handle uncertainty and model…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2019-04-30 Lluis Castrejon , Nicolas Ballas , Aaron Courville

An artificial intelligence (AI) model can be viewed as a function that maps inputs to outputs in high-dimensional spaces. Once designed and well trained, the AI model is applied for inference. However, even optimized AI models can produce…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-02-27 Sha Hu

We introduce Support Decomposition Variational Inference (SDVI), a new variational inference (VI) approach for probabilistic programs with stochastic support. Existing approaches to this problem rely on designing a single global variational…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-02 Tim Reichelt , Luke Ong , Tom Rainforth

Transformers, currently the state-of-the-art in natural language understanding (NLU) tasks, are prone to generate uncalibrated predictions or extreme probabilities, making the process of taking different decisions based on their output…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-07-18 Patrizio Giovannotti

Accurate beam prediction is essential for mitigating signalling overhead and latency in integrated sensing and communication-enabled massive multi-input multi-output systems. With the aid of multimodal learning, the prediction accuracy can…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-05-15 Zijian Zheng , Wenqiang Yi , Hyundong Shin , Arumugam Nallanathan

A conventional Bayesian approach to prediction uses the posterior distribution to integrate out parameters in a density for unobserved data conditional on the observed data and parameters. When the true posterior is intractable, it is…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-27 Lucas Kock , Scott A. Sisson , G. S. Rodrigues , David J. Nott

We present Sequential Neural Variational Inference (SNVI), an approach to perform Bayesian inference in models with intractable likelihoods. SNVI combines likelihood-estimation (or likelihood-ratio-estimation) with variational inference to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-20 Manuel Glöckler , Michael Deistler , Jakob H. Macke

We exploit the observation that stochastic variational inference (SVI) is a form of annealing and present a modified SVI approach -- applicable to both large and small datasets -- that allows the amount of annealing done by SVI to be tuned.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-17 John Paisley , Ghazal Fazelnia , Brian Barr

Training language models to produce both correct answers and sound reasoning remains an open challenge. Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards typically optimizes only final outcomes, which can lead to a failure mode where task…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-14 Kyuyoung Kim , Kevin Wang , Yunfei Xie , Peiyang Xu , Peiyao Sheng , Chen Wei , Zhangyang Wang , Jinwoo Shin , Pramod Viswanath , Sewoong Oh

Instrumental variables (IV) regression is widely used to estimate causal treatment effects in settings where receipt of treatment is not fully random, but there exists an instrument that generates exogenous variation in treatment exposure.…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-08-10 Stephen Coussens , Jann Spiess

We introduce a novel deep learning-based audio-visual quality (AVQ) prediction model that leverages internal features from state-of-the-art unimodal predictors. Unlike prior approaches that rely on simple fusion strategies, our model…

Audio and Speech Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-01-23 Ina Salaj , Arijit Biswas

Bayesian methods estimate a measure of uncertainty by using the posterior distribution. One source of difficulty in these methods is the computation of the normalizing constant. Calculating exact posterior is generally intractable and we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-17 Farzaneh Mahdisoltani

Current work on Visual Question Answering (VQA) explore deterministic approaches conditioned on various types of image and question features. We posit that, in addition to image and question pairs, other modalities are useful for teaching…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-09-28 Zixu Wang , Yishu Miao , Lucia Specia

We show that variational learning naturally induces an adaptive label smoothing where label noise is specialized for each example. Such label-smoothing is useful to handle examples with labeling errors and distribution shifts, but designing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-05 Sin-Han Yang , Zhedong Liu , Gian Maria Marconi , Mohammad Emtiyaz Khan

Compared to the wide array of advanced Monte Carlo methods supported by modern probabilistic programming languages (PPLs), PPL support for variational inference (VI) is less developed: users are typically limited to a predefined selection…

Programming Languages · Computer Science 2024-06-25 McCoy R. Becker , Alexander K. Lew , Xiaoyan Wang , Matin Ghavami , Mathieu Huot , Martin C. Rinard , Vikash K. Mansinghka

Dynamic Item Response Models extend the standard Item Response Theory (IRT) to capture temporal dynamics in learner ability. While these models have the potential to allow instructional systems to actively monitor the evolution of learner…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-16 Yunsung Kim , Sreechan Sankaranarayanan , Chris Piech , Candace Thille
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