Related papers: Latent Variable Phillips Curve
Computer simulations often involve both qualitative and numerical inputs. Existing Gaussian process (GP) methods for handling this mainly assume a different response surface for each combination of levels of the qualitative factors and…
Inflation is a major determinant for allocation decisions and its forecast is a fundamental aim of governments and central banks. However, forecasting inflation is not a trivial task, as its prediction relies on low frequency, highly…
The relationship between inflation and predictors such as unemployment is potentially nonlinear with a strength that varies over time, and prediction errors error may be subject to large, asymmetric shocks. Inspired by these concerns, we…
This paper proposes a stabilising model predictive control (MPC) scheme with preview information of disturbance for nonlinear systems. The proposed MPC algorithm is able to not only reject disturbance by making use of disturbance preview…
This paper proposes a variational Bayes algorithm for computationally efficient posterior and predictive inference in time-varying parameter (TVP) models. Within this context we specify a new dynamic variable/model selection strategy for…
This paper proposes a new methodological framework for estimating inferential models with latent variables. It also introduces a new latent variable regression model called LARX: an extension of the ubiquitous autoregressive model with…
We develop a generalization of unobserved components models that allows for a wide range of long-run dynamics by modelling the permanent component as a fractionally integrated process. The model does not require stationarity and can be cast…
This paper proposes a novel dynamic forecasting method using a new supervised Principal Component Analysis (PCA) when a large number of predictors are available. The new supervised PCA provides an effective way to bridge the gap between…
This paper considers the estimation and inference of the low-rank components in high-dimensional matrix-variate factor models, where each dimension of the matrix-variates ($p \times q$) is comparable to or greater than the number of…
This work proposes a novel robust model predictive control (MPC) algorithm for linear systems affected by dynamic model uncertainty and exogenous disturbances. The uncertainty is modeled using a linear fractional perturbation structure with…
The predictiveness curve is a valuable tool for predictive evaluation, risk stratification, and threshold selection in a target population, given a single biomarker or a prediction model. In the presence of competing risks, regression…
Model-free Reinforcement Learning (RL) works well when experience can be collected cheaply and model-based RL is effective when system dynamics can be modeled accurately. However, both assumptions can be violated in real world problems such…
Gaussian processes (GPs) are a powerful tool for probabilistic inference over functions. They have been applied to both regression and non-linear dimensionality reduction, and offer desirable properties such as uncertainty estimates,…
In this letter, an accelerated quadratic programming (QP) algorithm is proposed based on the proximal gradient method. The algorithm can achieve convergence rate $O(1/p^{\alpha})$, where $p$ is the iteration number and $\alpha$ is the given…
The Massively Parallel Computation (MPC) model serves as a common abstraction of many modern large-scale data processing frameworks, and has been receiving increasingly more attention over the past few years, especially in the context of…
The concepts of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), GDP per capita, and population are central to the study of political science and economics. However, a growing literature suggests that existing measures of these concepts contain considerable…
We provide a comprehensive overview of latent Markov (LM) models for the analysis of longitudinal categorical data. The main assumption behind these models is that the response variables are conditionally independent given a latent process…
The predominant way of modelling mortality rates is the Lee-Carter model and its many extensions. The Lee-Carter model and its many extensions use a latent process to forecast. These models are estimated using a two-step procedure that…
We develop Probabilistic Targeted Factor Analysis (PTFA), a likelihood-based framework for constructing latent factors that are explicitly targeted to variables of economic interest. PTFA provides a probabilistic foundation for Partial…
Latent variable models are used to estimate variables of interest quantities which are observable only up to some measurement error. In many studies, such variables are known but not precisely quantifiable (such as "job satisfaction" in…