Related papers: Likelihood-Based Ergodicity Transformations in Tim…
Empirical likelihood is a popular nonparametric or semi-parametric statistical method with many nice statistical properties. Yet when the sample size is small, or the dimension of the accompanying estimating function is high, the…
In this paper we study the ergodicity and the related semigroup property for a class of symmetric Markov jump processes associated with time changed symmetric $\alpha$-stable processes. For this purpose, explicit and sharp criteria for…
Locally adapted parameterizations of a model (such as locally weighted regression) are expressive but often suffer from high variance. We describe an approach for reducing the variance, based on the idea of estimating simultaneously a…
Generalising well in supervised learning tasks relies on correctly extrapolating the training data to a large region of the input space. One way to achieve this is to constrain the predictions to be invariant to transformations on the input…
Multivariate time series are ubiquitous objects in signal processing. Measuring a distance or similarity between two such objects is of prime interest in a variety of applications, including machine learning, but can be very difficult as…
This work introduces a novel, simple, and flexible method to quantify irreversibility in generic high-dimensional time series based on the well-known mapping to a binary classification problem. Our approach utilizes gradient boosting for…
The forward estimation problem for stationary and ergodic time series $\{X_n\}_{n=0}^{\infty}$ taking values from a finite alphabet ${\cal X}$ is to estimate the probability that $X_{n+1}=x$ based on the observations $X_i$, $0\le i\le n$…
We study a set of linear transformations on the Fourier series representation of a sequence that can be used as the basis for similarity queries on time-series data. We show that our set of transformations is rich enough to formulate…
This paper advances the local projections (LP) method by addressing its inefficiency in high-frequency economic and financial data with volatility clustering. We incorporate a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity…
Ergodicity is a fundamental issue for a stochastic process. In this paper, we refine results on ergodicity for a general type of Markov chain to a specific type or the $GI/G/1$-type Markov chain, which has many interesting and important…
Time series analysis remains a major challenge due to its sparse characteristics, high dimensionality, and inconsistent data quality. Recent advancements in transformer-based techniques have enhanced capabilities in forecasting and…
In the following article we consider approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) for certain classes of time series models. In particular, we focus upon scenarios where the likelihoods of the observations and parameter are intractable, by which…
Forecasting irregularly sampled time series with missing values is a crucial task for numerous real-world applications such as healthcare, astronomy, and climate sciences. State-of-the-art approaches to this problem rely on Ordinary…
One challenge in the estimation of financial market agent-based models (FABMs) is to infer reliable insights using numerical simulations validated by only a single observed time series. Ergodicity (besides stationarity) is a strong…
In this paper, we are concerned with improving the forecast capabilities of the Global approach to Time Series. We assume that the normal techniques of Global mapping are applied, the noise reduction is performed, etc. Then, using the…
Empirical likelihood approach is one of non-parametric statistical methods, which is applied to the hypothesis testing or construction of confidence regions for pivotal unknown quantities. This method has been applied to the case of…
Non-Gaussian likelihoods are essential for modelling complex real-world observations but pose significant computational challenges in learning and inference. Even with Gaussian priors, non-Gaussian likelihoods often lead to analytically…
Non-stationary time series with non-linear trends are frequently encountered in applications. We consider here the feasibility of accurately forecasting the signals of multiple such time series considering jointly when the number of…
In this paper, we extend recent results on the convergence of ergodic averages along sequences generated by return times to shrinking targets in rapidly mixing systems, partially answering questions posed by the first author, Maass and the…
Firth-type logistic regression has become a standard approach for the analysis of binary outcomes with small samples. Whereas it reduces the bias in maximum likelihood estimates of coefficients, bias towards 1/2 is introduced in the…