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Statistics is sometimes described as the science of reasoning under uncertainty. Statistical models provide one view of this uncertainty, but what is frequently neglected is the 'invisible' portion of uncertainty: that assumed not to exist…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-18 Oliver L. Pescott , Robin J. Boyd , Gary D. Powney , Gavin B. Stewart

We describe and contrast two distinct problem areas for statistical causality: studying the likely effects of an intervention ("effects of causes"), and studying whether there is a causal link between the observed exposure and outcome in an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-04-02 A. Philip Dawid , Monica Musio

In contingency table analysis, the odds ratio is a commonly applied measure used to summarize the degree of association between two categorical variables, say R and S. Suppose now that for each individual in the table, a vector of…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-11-16 Francis K. C. Hui , Gery Geenens

A fundamental concept in two-arm non-parametric survival analysis is the comparison of observed versus expected numbers of events on one of the treatment arms (the choice of which arm is arbitrary), where the expectation is taken assuming…

Applications · Statistics 2020-07-10 Dominic Magirr

Although treatment effects can be estimated from observed outcome distributions obtained from proper randomization in clinical trials, covariate adjustment is recommended to increase precision. For important treatment effects, such as odds…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-03 Susanne Dandl , Torsten Hothorn

Analysing subgroups defined by biomarkers is of increasing importance in clinical research. In some situations the biomarker is subject to misclassification error, meaning the true subgroups are identified with imperfect sensitivity and…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-16 Fang Wan , Andrew C. Titman , Thomas F. Jaki

This paper considers a proportional hazards model, which allows one to examine the extent to which covariates interact nonlinearly with an exposure variable, for analysis of lifetime data. A local partial-likelihood technique is proposed to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Jianqing Fan , Huazhen Lin , Yong Zhou

Recent research has shown the potential for neural networks to improve upon classical survival models such as the Cox model, which is widely used in clinical practice. Neural networks, however, typically rely on data that are centrally…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-12 Dekai Zhang , Francesca Toni , Matthew Williams

Uncertainty is prevalent in engineering design, data-driven problems, and decision making broadly. Due to inherent risk-averseness and ambiguity about assumptions, it is common to address uncertainty by formulating and solving conservative…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-04-05 Johannes O. Royset

Our primary aim is to find an estimate of the expected shortfall in various situations: (1) Nonparametric situation, when the probability distribution of the incurred loss is unknown, only satisfying some general conditions. Then, following…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-26 Jana Jurečková , Jan Kalina , Jan Večeř

The proportional hazards (PH) model is arguably one of the most popular models used to analyze time to event data arising from clinical trials and longitudinal studies, among many others. In many such studies, the event time of interest is…

Higher order risk measures are stochastic optimization problems by design, and for this reason they enjoy valuable properties in optimization under uncertainties. They nicely integrate with stochastic optimization problems, as has been…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-02-26 Alois Pichler

This paper proposes a decorrelation-based approach to test hypotheses and construct confidence intervals for the low dimensional component of high dimensional proportional hazards models. Motivated by the geometric projection principle, we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-12-17 Ethan X. Fang , Yang Ning , Han Liu

A prevalent feature of high-dimensional data is the dependence among covariates, and model selection is known to be challenging when covariates are highly correlated. To perform model selection for the high-dimensional Cox proportional…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-04 Pierre Bayle , Jianqing Fan

Randomized controlled experiment has long been accepted as the golden standard for establishing causal link and estimating causal effect in various scientific fields. Average treatment effect is often used to summarize the effect…

Applications · Statistics 2016-10-14 Alex Deng , Pengchuan Zhang , Shouyuan Chen , Dong Woo Kim , Jiannan Lu

Meta-analysis is commonly used to combine results from multiple clinical trials, but traditional meta-analysis methods do not refer explicitly to a population of individuals to whom the results apply and it is not clear how to use their…

By means of the techniques of Boolean valued analysis, we provide a transfer principle between duality theory of classical convex risk measures and duality theory of conditional risk measures. Namely, a conditional risk measure can be…

Functional Analysis · Mathematics 2019-10-09 José Miguel Zapata

Regular and rapid variation have been extensively studied in the literature and applied across various fields, particularly in extreme value theory. In this paper, we examine regular and rapid variation through the lens of generalized…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-04-17 Haijun Li

Probability forecasts of events are routinely used in climate predictions, in forecasting default probabilities on bank loans or in estimating the probability of a patient's positive response to treatment. Scoring rules have long been used…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-02-24 Tze Leung Lai , Shulamith T. Gross , David Bo Shen

In many biomedical applications, outcome is measured as a ``time-to-event'' (eg. disease progression or death). To assess the connection between features of a patient and this outcome, it is common to assume a proportional hazards model,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-08-11 Aliasghar Tarkhan , Noah Simon