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This paper generalizes an important result from the PAC-Bayesian literature for binary classification to the case of ensemble methods for structured outputs. We prove a generic version of the \Cbound, an upper bound over the risk of models…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-06-16 François Laviolette , Emilie Morvant , Liva Ralaivola , Jean-Francis Roy

In statistical learning theory, a generalization bound usually involves a complexity measure imposed by the considered theoretical framework. This limits the scope of such bounds, as other forms of capacity measures or regularizations are…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-22 Paul Viallard , Rémi Emonet , Amaury Habrard , Emilie Morvant , Valentina Zantedeschi

Convergence bounds are one of the main tools to obtain information on the performance of a distributed machine learning task, before running the task itself. In this work, we perform a set of experiments to assess to which extent, and in…

Networking and Internet Architecture · Computer Science 2022-12-06 Francesco Malandrino , Carla Fabiana Chiasserini

We propose a novel Bayesian model selection technique on linear mixed-effects models to compare multiple treatments with a control. A fully Bayesian approach is implemented to estimate the marginal inclusion probabilities that provide a…

Applications · Statistics 2015-09-28 Lei Gong , James M. Flegal , Stephen R. Spindler , Patricia L. Mote

Statistical analyses of multipopulation studies often use the data to select a particular population as the target of inference. For example, a confidence interval may be constructed for a population only in the event that its sample mean…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-09-18 Peter Hoff , Surya Tokdar

There is a growing literature on design-based methods to estimate average treatment effects for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) using the underpinnings of experiments. In this article, we build on these methods to consider design-based…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-17 Peter Z Schochet

Existing causal methods for time-varying exposure and time-varying confounding focus on estimating the average causal effect of a time-varying binary treatment on an end-of-study outcome, offering limited tools for characterizing marginal…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-21 Yu Luo , Kuan Liu , Ramandeep Singh , Daniel J. Graham

Attrition is a common and potentially important threat to internal validity in treatment effect studies. We extend the changes-in-changes approach to identify the average treatment effect for respondents and the entire study population in…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-03-29 Dalia Ghanem , Sarojini Hirshleifer , Désiré Kédagni , Karen Ortiz-Becerra

We introduce the BREASE framework for the Bayesian analysis of randomized controlled trials with a binary treatment and a binary outcome. Approaching the problem from a causal inference perspective, we propose parameterizing the likelihood…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-26 Nicholas J. Irons , Carlos Cinelli

Phenomena with a constrained sample space appear frequently in practice. This is the case e.g. with strictly positive data and with compositional data, like percentages and the like. If the natural measure of difference is not the absolute…

Methodology · Statistics 2008-02-20 G. Mateu-Figueras , V. Pawlowsky-Glahn , J. J. Egozcue

In this paper, we provide efficient estimators and honest confidence bands for a variety of treatment effects including local average (LATE) and local quantile treatment effects (LQTE) in data-rich environments. We can handle very many…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-01-08 Alexandre Belloni , Victor Chernozhukov , Ivan Fernández-Val , Christian Hansen

We consider the problem of estimating the Fr\'echet and conditional Fr\'echet mean from data taking values in separable metric spaces. Unlike Euclidean spaces, where well-established methods are available, there is no practical estimator…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-06 László Györfi , Pierre Humbert , Batiste Le Bars

We consider the problem of extrapolating treatment effects across heterogeneous populations (``sites"/``contexts"). We consider an idealized scenario in which the researcher observes cross-sectional data for a large number of units across…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-03 Konrad Menzel

The linear conditional expectation (LCE) provides a best linear (or rather, affine) estimate of the conditional expectation and hence plays an important r\^ole in approximate Bayesian inference, especially the Bayes linear approach. This…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-08-26 Ilja Klebanov , Björn Sprungk , T. J. Sullivan

Regression with random data objects is becoming increasingly common in modern data analysis. Unfortunately, this novel regression method is not immune to the trouble caused by unusual observations. A metric Cook's distance extending the…

Computation · Statistics 2024-07-08 Abdul-Nasah Soale

Bounding causal effects analytically, rather than numerically, is appealing for its interpretability and conceptual clarity. Existing sharp methods rely on optimization-based approaches such as the Balke-Pearl framework, whose computational…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-15 Arefe Boushehrian , Mohammad Reza Badri , Sina Akbari , Negar Kiyavash

Instrumental variables (IVs) are widely used for estimating causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. Under the standard IV model, however, the average treatment effect (ATE) is only partially identifiable. To address this,…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-08 Linbo Wang , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

It is increasingly common to augment randomized controlled trial with external controls from observational data, to evaluate the treatment effect of an intervention. Traditional approaches to treatment effect estimation involve ambiguous…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-28 Bo Liu , Laine Thomas , Rury R. Holman , Fan Li

Randomized experiments in which the treatment of a unit can affect the outcomes of other units are becoming increasingly common in healthcare, economics, and in the social and information sciences. From a causal inference perspective, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-02-14 Daniel L. Sussman , Edoardo M. Airoldi

We present a series of new and more favorable margin-based learning guarantees that depend on the empirical margin loss of a predictor. We give two types of learning bounds, both distribution-dependent and valid for general families, in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-30 Corinna Cortes , Mehryar Mohri , Ananda Theertha Suresh