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We are interested in the distribution of treatment effects for an experiment where units are randomized to a treatment but outcomes are measured for pairs of units. For example, we might measure risk sharing links between households…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-10-11 Eric Auerbach , Yong Cai

One of the most popular methodologies for estimating the average treatment effect at the threshold in a regression discontinuity design is local linear regression (LLR), which places larger weight on units closer to the threshold. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-01 Zach Branson , Maxime Rischard , Luke Bornn , Luke Miratrix

A growing statistical literature focuses on causal inference in the context of experiments where the target of inference is the average treatment effect in a finite population and random assignment determines which subjects are allocated to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-04 Jonas M. Mikhaeil , Donald P. Green

A regression method for proportional, or fractional, data with mixed effects is outlined, designed for analysis of datasets in which the outcomes have substantial weight at the bounds. In such cases a normal approximation is particularly…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-23 Colman Humphrey , Dan Swingley

Estimating the mean of a random vector from i.i.d. data has received considerable attention, and the optimal accuracy one may achieve with a given confidence is fairly well understood by now. When the data take values in more general metric…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-09-18 Daniel Bartl , Gabor Lugosi , Roberto Imbuzeiro Oliveira , Zoraida F. Rico

We develop new semiparametric methods for estimating treatment effects. We focus on settings where the outcome distributions may be thick tailed, where treatment effects may be small, where sample sizes are large and where assignment is…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-24 Susan Athey , Peter J. Bickel , Aiyou Chen , Guido W. Imbens , Michael Pollmann

Large-scale datasets are increasingly being used to inform decision making. While this effort aims to ground policy in real-world evidence, challenges have arisen as selection bias and other forms of distribution shifts often plague…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-07 Santiago Cortes-Gomez , Mateo Dulce , Carlos Patino , Bryan Wilder

This paper provides a set of methods for quantifying the robustness of treatment effects estimated using the unconfoundedness assumption (also known as selection on observables or conditional independence). Specifically, we estimate and do…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-01-01 Matthew A. Masten , Alexandre Poirier , Linqi Zhang

We introduce methods to bound the mean of a discrete distribution (or finite population) based on sample data, for random variables with a known set of possible values. In particular, the methods can be applied to categorical data with…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-11-16 Eric Bax , Frédéric Ouimet

In many experimental or quasi-experimental studies, outcomes of interest are only observed for subjects who select (or are selected) to engage in the activity generating the outcome. Outcome data is thus endogenously missing for units who…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-14 Cyrus Samii , Ye Wang , Junlong Aaron Zhou

In this work, the probability of an event under some joint distribution is bounded by measuring it with the product of the marginals instead (which is typically easier to analyze) together with a measure of the dependence between the two…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2020-10-22 Amedeo Roberto Esposito , Michael Gastpar , Ibrahim Issa

This paper develops a unified theoretical framework for detecting and estimating boundaries in treatment effects across both spatial and temporal dimensions. We formalize the concept of treatment effect boundaries as structural parameters…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-28 Tatsuru Kikuchi

This paper studies identification and estimation of average causal effects, such as average marginal or treatment effects, in fixed effects logit models with short panels. Relating the identified set of these effects to an extremal moment…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-12-20 Laurent Davezies , Xavier D'Haultfœuille , Louise Laage

Estimation of individual treatment effects is commonly used as the basis for contextual decision making in fields such as healthcare, education, and economics. However, it is often sufficient for the decision maker to have estimates of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-13 Maggie Makar , Fredrik D. Johansson , John Guttag , David Sontag

This article presents identification results for the marginal treatment effect (MTE) when there is sample selection. We show that the MTE is partially identified for individuals who are always observed regardless of treatment, and derive…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-12-15 Otávio Bartalotti , Désiré Kédagni , Vitor Possebom

For observational studies, we study the sensitivity of causal inference when treatment assignments may depend on unobserved confounders. We develop a loss minimization approach for estimating bounds on the conditional average treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-11 Steve Yadlowsky , Hongseok Namkoong , Sanjay Basu , John Duchi , Lu Tian

The purpose of this article is to develop a general parametric estimation theory that allows the derivation of the limit distribution of estimators in non-regular models where the true parameter value may lie on the boundary of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-11-28 Junichiro Yoshida , Nakahiro Yoshida

Fr\'echet mean and variance provide a way of obtaining mean and variance for general metric space valued random variables and can be used for statistical analysis of data objects that lie in abstract spaces devoid of algebraic structure and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-10-22 Paromita Dubey , Hans-Georg Müller

Random-effects models are frequently used to synthesise information from different studies in meta-analysis. While likelihood-based inference is attractive both in terms of limiting properties and of implementation, its application in…

Applications · Statistics 2018-05-25 Sophia Kyriakou , Ioannis Kosmidis , Nicola Sartori

This paper provides a general technique for lower bounding the Bayes risk of statistical estimation, applicable to arbitrary loss functions and arbitrary prior distributions. A lower bound on the Bayes risk not only serves as a lower bound…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-12-26 Xi Chen , Adityanand Guntuboyina , Yuchen Zhang