Related papers: Large earthquakes follow highly unequal ones
In statistical and nonlinear systems, two qualitatively distinct parameter regions are typically identified: the regular region, characterized by smooth behavior of key quantities, and the critical region, where these quantities exhibit…
As part of an effort to develop a systematic methodology for earthquake forecasting, we use a simple model of seismicity based on interacting events which may trigger a cascade of earthquakes, known as the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence…
Increasing inhomogeneity due to gravitational clumping reflects increasing gravitational entropy in a time evolving universe. Starting from an ensemble of uniformly distributed particles it is demonstrated that gravitational clustering is…
Despite the importance of predicting evacuation mobility dynamics after large scale disasters for effective first response and disaster relief, our general understanding of evacuation behavior remains limited because of the lack of…
In various situations in the insurance industry, in finance, in epidemiology, etc., one needs to represent the joint evolution of the number of occurrences of an event. In this paper, we present a multivariate integer-valued autoregressive…
The statistical properties of avalanches in a dissipative particulate system under slow shear are investigated using molecular dynamics simulations. It is found that the magnitude-frequency distribution obeys the Gutenberg-Richter law only…
We develop an efficient numerical scheme to solve accurately the set of nonlinear integral equations derived previously in (Saichev and Sornette, 2007), which describes the distribution of inter-event times in the framework of a general…
The inhomogeneity of the materials with different physical properties in the Earth is responsible for a wide variety of spatial and temporal behaviors. In this work, we study an earthquake fault model based on Olami-Feder-Christensen (OFC)…
The paper provides a synoptic overview of a series of works carried out by a group of researchers at the Institute of Physics of the Earth RAS with the aim of finding new approaches to the problems of earthquake physics. The fundamental…
Lorenz values and the Gini index are popular quantities in Mathematical Economics, and are used here in the context of quantum systems with finite-dimensional Hilbert space. They quantify the uncertainty in the probability distribution…
Atmospheric flows exhibit fluctuations of all scales (space -time) ranging from turbulence (millimeters-seconds) to climate (thousands of kilometers-years). The apparently random fluctuations however exhibit long-range spatio-temporal…
Earthquakes are a major threat to nations worldwide. Earthquake detection is an important scientific challenge, not only for its social impacts, but also since it reflects the actual degree of understanding of the physical processes…
Given a distribution of earthquake-induced seafloor elevations, we present a method to compute the probability of the resulting tsunamis reaching a certain size on shore. Instead of sampling, the proposed method relies on optimization to…
We propose a new method to test the effectiveness of a spatial point process forecast based on a log-likelihood score for predicted point density and the information gain for events that actually occurred in the test period. The method…
It has been observed that the earthquake events possess short-term memory, i.e. that events occurring in a particular location are dependent on the short history of that location. We conduct an analysis to see whether real-time earthquake…
The way granular materials response to an applied shear stress is of the utmost relevance to both human activities and natural environment. One of the their most intriguing and less understood behavior, is the stick-instability, whose most…
In recent times it has been observed that signatures of equilibrium quantum criticality surprisingly show up in many-body systems which are manifestly far from equilibrium. We explore such scenarios in interacting spin systems subject to a…
We study the predictability of large events in self-organizing systems. We focus on a set of models which have been studied as analogs of earthquake faults and fault systems, and apply methods based on techniques which are of current…
We discuss the non-equilibrium critical phenomena in liquids, and the models for these phenomena based on local equilibrium and extended scaling assumptions. Special situations are proposed for experimental tests of the theory.…
The concept of proper time, which is different from universal time, has been introduced into the physics of earthquakes. The global activity of strong earthquakes was chosen as the object of study. We consider the sequence of earthquakes as…