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The appropriateness of the Poisson model is frequently challenged when examining spatial count data marked by unbalanced distributions, over-dispersion, or under-dispersion. Moreover, traditional parametric models may inadequately capture…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-26 Mahsa Nadifar , Andriette Bekker , Mohammad Arashi , Abel Ramoelo

BCART (Bayesian Classification and Regression Trees) and BART (Bayesian Additive Regression Trees) are popular Bayesian regression models widely applicable in modern regression problems. Their popularity is intimately tied to the ability to…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-19 Matthew T. Pratola , Edward I. George , Robert E. McCulloch

This article proposes a novel framework that integrates Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) into a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) model to forecast macro-financial variables and examine asymmetries in the transmission…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-06-16 Sofia Velasco

Regression discontinuity designs (RDD) are widely used for causal inference. In many empirical applications, treatment effects vary substantially with covariates, and ignoring such heterogeneity can lead to misleading conclusions, which…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-05 Daisuke Kondo , Shonosuke Sugasawa

We incorporate heteroskedasticity into Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) by modeling the log of the error variance parameter as a linear function of prespecified covariates. Under this scheme, the Gibbs sampling procedure for the…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-02-24 Justin Bleich , Adam Kapelner

In modern computer experiment applications, one often encounters the situation where various models of a physical system are considered, each implemented as a simulator on a computer. An important question in such a setting is determining…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-08 John C. Yannotty , Thomas J. Santner , Richard J. Furnstahl , Matthew T. Pratola

Fossil-based palaeoclimate reconstruction is an important area of ecological science that has gained momentum in the backdrop of the global climate change debate. The hierarchical Bayesian paradigm provides an interesting platform for…

Applications · Statistics 2013-12-13 Sabyasachi Mukhopadhyay , Sourabh Bhattacharya

We discuss Bayesian nonparametric procedures for the regression analysis of compositional responses, that is, data supported on a multivariate simplex. The procedures are based on a modified class of multivariate Bernstein polynomials and…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-31 Claudia Wehrhahn , Andrés F. Barrientos , Alejandro Jara

Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) is a Bayesian approach to flexible non-linear regression which has been shown to be competitive with the best modern predictive methods such as those based on bagging and boosting. BART offers some…

This paper describes a compound Poisson-based random effects structure for modeling zero-inflated data. Data with large proportion of zeros are found in many fields of applied statistics, for example in ecology when trying to model and…

Applications · Statistics 2009-07-29 Marie-Pierre Etienne , Eric Parent , Benoit Hugues , Bernier Jacques

This paper develops a performant Bayesian approach to conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation in regression discontinuity designs (RDD), an increasingly prevalent form of quasi-experiment that facilitates causal inference.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-18 Rafael Alcantara , P. Richard Hahn , Hedibert F. Lopes

We develop a Bayesian non-parametric quantile panel regression model. Within each quantile, the response function is a convex combination of a linear model and a non-linear function, which we approximate using Bayesian Additive Regression…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-10-08 Todd E. Clark , Florian Huber , Gary Koop , Massimiliano Marcellino , Michael Pfarrhofer

Vector autoregression (VAR) models are widely used for forecasting and macroeconomic analysis, yet they remain limited by their reliance on a linear parameterization. Recent research has introduced nonparametric alternatives, such as…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-19 Pedro A. Lima , Carlos M. Carvalho , Hedibert F. Lopes , Andrew Herren

The ratio of two densities provides a direct characterization of their differences. We consider the two-sample comparison problem by estimating this ratio given i.i.d. observations from two distributions. To this end, we propose additive…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-23 Naoki Awaya , Yuliang Xu , Li Ma

Alcohol Use Disorder (AUD) treatment presents high individual-level heterogeneity, with outcomes ranging from complete abstinence to persistent heavy drinking. This variability-driven by complex behavioral, social, and environmental…

Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) of Chipman et al. (2010) has proven to be a powerful tool for nonparametric modeling and prediction. Monotone BART (Chipman et al., 2022) is a recent development that allows BART to be more precise…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-03 Jared D. Fisher

We consider the task of discovering gene regulatory networks, which are defined as sets of genes and the corresponding transcription factors which regulate their expression levels. This can be viewed as a variable selection problem,…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-12-04 Justin Bleich , Adam Kapelner , Edward I. George , Shane T. Jensen

Healthcare decision-making often requires selecting among treatment options under budget constraints, particularly when one option is more effective but also more costly. Cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) provides a framework for evaluating…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-07-29 Jonas Esser , Mateus Maia , Judith Bosmans , Johanna van Dongen

A frequent challenge encountered with ecological data is how to interpret, analyze, or model data having a high proportion of zeros. Much attention has been given to zero-inflated count data, whereas models for non-negative continuous data…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-23 Becky Tang , Henry A Frye , Alan E. Gelfand , John A Silander

We show how to construct the implied copula process of response values from a Bayesian additive regression tree (BART) model with prior on the leaf node variances. This copula process, defined on the covariate space, can be paired with any…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-14 Jan Martin Wenkel , Michael Stanley Smith , Nadja Klein