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In classification applications, we often want probabilistic predictions to reflect confidence or uncertainty. Dropout, a commonly used training technique, has recently been linked to Bayesian inference, yielding an efficient way to quantify…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-25 Zhilu Zhang , Adrian V. Dalca , Mert R. Sabuncu

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) often result uncalibrated after training, usually tending towards overconfidence. Devising effective calibration methods with low impact in terms of computational complexity is thus of central interest. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-18 Hector J. Hortua , Luigi Malago , Riccardo Volpi

Uncertainty quantification is essential for assessing the reliability and trustworthiness of modern AI systems. Among existing approaches, verbalized uncertainty, where models express their confidence through natural language, has emerged…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-05-27 Weihao Xuan , Qingcheng Zeng , Heli Qi , Junjue Wang , Naoto Yokoya

Reliable uncertainty calibration is essential for safely deploying deep neural networks in high-stakes applications. Deep neural networks are known to exhibit systematic overconfidence, especially under distribution shifts. Although…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-12 Achim Hekler , Lukas Kuhn , Florian Buettner

Operating with ignorance is an important concern of the Machine Learning research, especially when the objective is to discover knowledge from the imperfect data. Data mining (driven by appropriate knowledge discovery tools) is about…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-16 Vagan Terziyan , Anton Nikulin

Miscalibration - a mismatch between a model's confidence and its correctness - of Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) makes their predictions hard to rely on. Ideally, we want networks to be accurate, calibrated and confident. We show that, as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-27 Jishnu Mukhoti , Viveka Kulharia , Amartya Sanyal , Stuart Golodetz , Philip H. S. Torr , Puneet K. Dokania

Deep neural networks have been increasingly used in safety-critical applications such as medical diagnosis and autonomous driving. However, many studies suggest that they are prone to being poorly calibrated and have a propensity for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-02 Chengli Tan , Yubo Zhou , Haishan Ye , Guang Dai , Junmin Liu , Zengjie Song , Jiangshe Zhang , Zixiang Zhao , Yunda Hao , Yong Xu

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in decision-making contexts, but when they present answers without signaling low confidence, users may unknowingly act on erroneous outputs. Prior work shows that LLMs maintain internal…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-23 Mark Steyvers , Catarina Belem , Padhraic Smyth

Obtaining reliable and accurate quantification of uncertainty estimates from deep neural networks is important in safety-critical applications. A well-calibrated model should be accurate when it is certain about its prediction and indicate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-16 Ranganath Krishnan , Omesh Tickoo

Image-based environment perception is an important component especially for driver assistance systems or autonomous driving. In this scope, modern neuronal networks are used to identify multiple objects as well as the according position and…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-02-07 Fabian Küppers

We study whether language models can evaluate the validity of their own claims and predict which questions they will be able to answer correctly. We first show that larger models are well-calibrated on diverse multiple choice and true/false…

Confidence-aware learning is proven as an effective solution to prevent networks becoming overconfident. We present a confidence-aware camouflaged object detection framework using dynamic supervision to produce both accurate camouflage map…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-06-23 Jiawei Liu , Jing Zhang , Nick Barnes

Modern convolutional neural networks (CNNs) are known to be overconfident in terms of their calibration on unseen input data. That is to say, they are more confident than they are accurate. This is undesirable if the probabilities predicted…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-03 Guoxuan Xia , Sangwon Ha , Tiago Azevedo , Partha Maji

Do all instances need inference through the big models for a correct prediction? Perhaps not; some instances are easy and can be answered correctly by even small capacity models. This provides opportunities for improving the computational…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-10-12 Neeraj Varshney , Chitta Baral

Large language models (LLMs) exhibit a wide range of promising capabilities -- from step-by-step planning to commonsense reasoning -- that may provide utility for robots, but remain prone to confidently hallucinated predictions. In this…

Confidence calibration -- the problem of predicting probability estimates representative of the true correctness likelihood -- is important for classification models in many applications. We discover that modern neural networks, unlike…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-08-04 Chuan Guo , Geoff Pleiss , Yu Sun , Kilian Q. Weinberger

Confidence estimation, a task that aims to evaluate the trustworthiness of the model's prediction output during deployment, has received lots of research attention recently, due to its importance for the safe deployment of deep models.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-10-14 Haoxuan Qu , Yanchao Li , Lin Geng Foo , Jason Kuen , Jiuxiang Gu , Jun Liu

Knowledge augmentation has significantly enhanced the performance of Large Language Models (LLMs) in knowledge-intensive tasks. However, existing methods typically operate on the simplistic premise that model performance equates with…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-02-16 Hao Chen , Ye He , Yuchun Fan , Yukun Yan , Zhenghao Liu , Qingfu Zhu , Maosong Sun , Wanxiang Che

One of the ways to make artificial intelligence more natural is to give it some room for doubt. Two main questions should be resolved in that way. First, how to train a model to estimate uncertainties of its own predictions? And then, what…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-04-17 Alexey Kornaev , Elena Kornaeva , Oleg Ivanov , Ilya Pershin , Danis Alukaev

Accurately gauging the confidence level of Large Language Models' (LLMs) predictions is pivotal for their reliable application. However, LLMs are often uncalibrated inherently and elude conventional calibration techniques due to their…