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In the context of right-censored data, we study the problem of predicting the restricted time to event based on a set of covariates. Under a quadratic loss, this problem is equivalent to estimating the conditional Restricted Mean Survival…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-04-29 Ariane Cwiling , Vittorio Perduca , Olivier Bouaziz

We address the practical construction of asymptotic confidence intervals for smooth (i.e., path-wise differentiable), real-valued statistical parameters by targeted learning from independent and identically distributed data in contexts…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-07-01 Patrice Bertail , Antoine Chambaz , Emilien Joly

The restricted mean survival time (RMST) is a widely used quantity in survival analysis due to its straightforward interpretation. For instance, predicting the time to event based on patient attributes is of great interest when analyzing…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-11 Ariane Cwiling , Vittorio Perduca , Olivier Bouaziz

We propose Deep Longitudinal Targeted Minimum Loss-based Estimation (Deep LTMLE), a novel approach to estimate the counterfactual mean of outcome under dynamic treatment policies in longitudinal problem settings. Our approach utilizes a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-09 Toru Shirakawa , Yi Li , Yulun Wu , Sky Qiu , Yuxuan Li , Mingduo Zhao , Hiroyasu Iso , Mark van der Laan

This paper studies the generalization of the targeted minimum loss-based estimation (TMLE) framework to estimation of effects of time-varying interventions in settings where both interventions, covariates, and outcome can happen at…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-05-06 Helene C. Rytgaard , Thomas A. Gerds , Mark J. van der Laan

In recent years, there has been growing interest in causal machine learning estimators for quantifying subject-specific effects of a binary treatment on time-to-event outcomes. Estimation approaches have been proposed which attenuate the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-30 Matthew Pryce , Karla Diaz-Ordaz , Ruth H. Keogh , Stijn Vansteelandt

Restricted mean survival time (RMST) offers a compelling nonparametric alternative to hazard ratios for right-censored time-to-event data, particularly when the proportional hazards assumption is violated. By capturing the total event-free…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-28 Jinghao Sun , Douglas E. Schaubel , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen

In clinical follow-up studies with a time-to-event end point, the difference in the restricted mean survival time (RMST) is a suitable substitute for the hazard ratio (HR). However, the RMST only measures the survival of patients over a…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-27 Zijing Yang , Chengfeng Zhang , Yawen Hou , Zheng Chen

In clinical and epidemiological studies, hazard ratios are often applied to compare treatment effects between two groups for survival data. For competing risks data, the corresponding quantities of interest are cause-specific hazard ratios…

Applications · Statistics 2021-12-21 Hongji Wu , Hao Yuan , Zijing Yang , Yawen Hou , Zheng Chen

Covariate adjustment is desired by both practitioners and regulators of randomized clinical trials because it improves precision for estimating treatment effects. However, covariate adjustment presents a particular challenge in…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-20 Yunfan Li , Jessica L. Ross , Aaron M. Smith , David P. Miller

Current Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation (TMLE) methods used to analyze time-to-event data estimate the survival probability for each time point separately, which result in estimates that are not necessarily monotone. In this paper,…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-14 Weixin Cai , Mark J. van der Laan

The difference in restricted mean survival time (RMST) is a clinically meaningful measure to quantify treatment effect in randomized controlled trials, especially when the proportional hazards assumption does not hold. Several frequentist…

Variable importance is one of the most widely used measures for interpreting machine learning with significant interest from both statistics and machine learning communities. Recently, increasing attention has been directed toward…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-22 Xiaohan Wang , Yunzhe Zhou , Giles Hooker

The restricted mean survival time (RMST) has become a popular measure to summarize event times in longitudinal studies. Defined as the area under the survival function up to a time horizon $\tau$ > 0, the RMST can be interpreted as the life…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-05 Alina Schenk , Vanessa Basten , Matthias Schmid

Understanding the effects of quarantine policies in populations with underlying social networks is crucial for public health, yet most causal inference methods fail here due to their assumption of independent individuals. We introduce…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-12-09 Suhan Guo , Furao Shen , Ni Li

The restricted mean survival time (RMST) model has been garnering attention as a way to provide a clinically intuitive measure: the mean survival time. RMST models, which use methods based on pseudo time-to-event values and inverse…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-11 Keisuke Hanada , Masahiro Kojima

Uncertainty quantification of prediction models through prediction sets is increasingly popular and successful, but most existing methods rely on directly observing the outcome and do not appropriately handle censored outcomes, such as…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-06 Wenwen Si , Hongxiang Qiu

Investigating the causal relationship between exposure and the time-to-event outcome is an important topic in biomedical research. Previous literature has discussed the potential issues of using the hazard ratio as a marginal causal effect…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-05 Zihan Lin , Ai Ni , Bo Lu

Restricted mean survival time (RMST) models have gained popularity when analyzing time-to-event outcomes because RMST models offer more straightforward interpretations of treatment effects with fewer assumptions than hazard ratios commonly…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-23 Kaiyuan Hua , Xiaofei Wang , Hwanhee Hong

Hazard ratios are ubiquitously used in time to event analysis to quantify treatment effects. Although hazard ratios are invaluable for hypothesis testing, other measures of association, both relative and absolute, may be used to fully…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-02 Federico Ambrogi , Simona Iacobelli , Per Kragh Andersen
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