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We study how nonlinear, state-dependent health dynamics shape economic behavior, inequality, and the evaluation of disability insurance at older ages. Using English panel data, we construct a continuous health index and estimate its…
Mathematical modelling of unemployment dynamics attempts to predict the probability of a job seeker finding a job as a function of time. This is typically achieved by using information in unemployment records. These records are right…
Two distinct trends can prove the existence of technological unemployment in the US. First, there are more open jobs than the number of unemployed persons looking for a job, and second, the shift of the Beveridge curve. There have been many…
This paper studies the extent to which the cyclicality of occupational mobility shapes that of aggregate unemployment and its duration distribution. We document the relation between workers' occupational mobility and unemployment duration…
In this paper we consider estimation of unobserved components in state space models using a dynamic factor approach to incorporate auxiliary information from high-dimensional data sources. We apply the methodology to unemployment estimation…
The existence of involuntary unemployment advocated by J. M. Keynes is a very important problem of the modern economic theory. Using a three-generations overlapping generations model, we show that the existence of involuntary unemployment…
Decisions to pursue higher education are not fully explained by economic incentives, with social influence and peer effects playing a crucial, yet dynamically understudied, role. This paper develops a theoretical non-linear dynamics model…
This study explores the impact of unemployment benefits on employment quality, job stability, and tenure within complex labour market dynamics. Given the macroeconomic consequences of changes in unemployment benefits, including their impact…
Here we numerically study a model of excitable media, namely, a network with occasionally quiet nodes and connection weights that vary with activity on a short-time scale. Even in the absence of stimuli, this exhibits unstable dynamics,…
The Keen model is a mathematical model that describes the dynamic evolution of wages, employment, and debt based on the known Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis. It consists of three first order nonlinear ordinary differential…
Neural network modules conditioned by known priors can be effectively trained and combined to represent systems with nonlinear dynamics. This work explores a novel formulation for data-efficient learning of deep control-oriented nonlinear…
Both inflation and unemployment inflict social losses. When a tradeoff exists between the two, what would be the best combination of inflation and unemployment? A well known approach in economics to address this question consists to write…
This study provides the first confirmation that individual employment status can be predicted from standard mobile phone network logs externally validated with household survey data. Individual welfare and households vulnerability to shocks…
This paper introduces a novel framework for designing fair and sustainable unemployment benefits, grounded in cooperative game theory and real-time fiscal policy. The labor market is modeled as a coalitional game, where a random subset of…
Active labor market programs are important instruments used by European employment agencies to help the unemployed find work. Investigating large administrative data on German long-term unemployed persons, we analyze the effectiveness of…
Nonlinear systems with model uncertainty are often described by stochastic differential equations. Some techniques from random dynamical systems are discussed. They are relevant to better understanding of solution processes of stochastic…
We study the robustness of system estimation to parametric perturbations in system dynamics and initial conditions. We define the problem of sensitivity-based parametric uncertainty quantification in dynamical system estimation. The main…
Using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics data on the period 1982-1992, this paper investigates some mechanisms of the labor market in the United States. This market is analyzed as a stable structure constituted of segments which present…
We consider large-scale systems influenced by burnout variables - state variables that start active, shape dynamics, and irreversibly deactivate once certain conditions are met. Simulating what-if scenarios in such systems is…
Tracking the build-up of financial vulnerabilities is a key component of financial stability policy. Due to the complexity of the financial system, this task is daunting, and there have been several proposals on how to manage this goal. One…