Related papers: Non-stationary time series attribution for heatwav…
We develop a unified statistical framework for attributing heatwaves as spatio-temporal phenomena under climate change. We quantify the impact of anthropogenic forcing on the probability and persistence of heatwaves not captured by standard…
The modeling of spatio-temporal trends in temperature extremes can help better understand the structure and frequency of heatwaves in a changing climate. Here, we study annual temperature maxima over Southern Europe using a century-spanning…
Extreme precipitation shows non-stationary behavior over time, but also with respect to other large-scale variables. While this effect is often neglected, we propose a model including the influence of North Atlantic Oscillation, time,…
Accurate modelling of the joint extremal dependence structure within a stationary time series is a challenging problem that is important in many applications.\ Several previous approaches to this problem are only applicable to certain types…
Numerical climate models are complex and combine a large number of physical processes. They are key tools in quantifying the relative contribution of potential anthropogenic causes (e.g., the current increase in greenhouse gases) on high…
Climate change has become a significant global concern due to its capacity to cause substantial disruption to daily life by increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Given the rising trend of human interventions in…
In recent years, the climate change research community has become highly interested in describing the anthropogenic influence on extreme weather events, commonly termed "event attribution." Limitations in the observational record and in…
The last decade has seen numerous record-shattering heatwaves in all corners of the globe. In the aftermath of these devastating events, there is interest in identifying worst-case thresholds or upper bounds that quantify just how hot…
The task of simplifying the complex spatio-temporal variables associated with climate modeling is of utmost importance and comes with significant challenges. In this research, our primary objective is to tailor clustering techniques to…
Changes in extreme weather events are a potentially important aspect of anthropogenic climate change (ACC), yet, are difficult to attribute to ACC because the record length is often similar to, or shorter than, extreme-event return periods.…
Studying extreme events and how they evolve in a changing climate is one of the most important current scientific challenges. Starting from complex climate models, a key difficulty is to be able to run long enough simulations in order to…
Extreme event attribution characterizes how anthropogenic climate change may have influenced the probability and magnitude of selected individual extreme weather and climate events. Attribution statements often involve quantification of the…
Climate extremes such as floods, storms, and heatwaves have caused severe economic and human losses across Europe in recent decades. To support the European Union's climate resilience efforts, we propose a statistical framework for…
Anthropogenic climate change (ACC) is altering the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Attributing individual extreme events (EEs) to ACC is becoming crucial to assess the risks of climate change. Traditional attribution…
Heatwaves are known to arise from the interplay between large-scale climate variability, synoptic weather patterns and regional to local scale surface processes. While recent research has made important progress for each individual…
The analysis of extremes in climate models is hindered by the lack of statistics due to the computational costs required to run simulations long enough to sample rare events. We demonstrate how rare event algorithms can improve the…
When extreme weather events affect large areas, their regional to sub-continental spatial scale is important for their impacts. We propose a novel machine learning (ML) framework that integrates spatial extreme-value theory to model weather…
Extreme events, such as wave-storms, need to be characterized for coastal infrastructure design purposes. Such description should contain information on both the univariate behaviour and the joint-dependence of storm-variables. These two…
Rapid changes in climatic conditions threaten both socioeconomic and ecological systems, as these might not be able to adapt or to migrate at the same pace as that of global warming. In particular, an increase of weather and climate…
We investigate the changing nature of the frequency, magnitude and spatial extent of extreme temperatures in Ireland from 1931 to 2022. We develop an extreme value model that captures spatial and temporal non-stationarity in extreme daily…