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Uplift modeling estimates the causal effect of an intervention as the difference between potential outcomes under treatment and control, whereas counterfactual identification aims to recover the joint distribution of these potential…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-10 Théo Verhelst , Gianluca Bontempi

Counterfactual explanations provide a potentially significant solution to the Explainable AI (XAI) problem, but good, native counterfactuals have been shown to rarely occur in most datasets. Hence, the most popular methods generate…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-01-25 Barry Smyth , Mark T Keane

The assumption of no unmeasured confounders is a critical but unverifiable assumption required for causal inference yet quantitative sensitivity analyses to assess robustness of real-world evidence remains underutilized. The lack of use is…

Rationales, snippets of extracted text that explain an inference, have emerged as a popular framework for interpretable natural language processing (NLP). Rationale models typically consist of two cooperating modules: a selector and a…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-01-17 Mitchell Plyler , Michael Green , Min Chi

Traditional approaches to data visualization have often focused on comparing different subsets of data, and this is reflected in the many techniques developed and evaluated over the years for visual comparison. Similarly, common workflows…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2024-02-27 David Borland , Arran Zeyu Wang , David Gotz

In this paper we discuss practical limitations of the standard choice-based demand models used in the literature to estimate demand from sales transaction data. We present modifications and extensions of the models and discuss data…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-08-25 Norbert Remenyi , Xiaodong Luo

Imbalanced classification and spurious correlation are common challenges in data science and machine learning. Both issues are linked to data imbalance, with certain groups of data samples significantly underrepresented, which in turn would…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-10 Ryumei Nakada , Yichen Xu , Lexin Li , Linjun Zhang

Counterfactual instances are a powerful tool to obtain valuable insights into automated decision processes, describing the necessary minimal changes in the input space to alter the prediction towards a desired target. Most previous…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-07 Robert-Florian Samoilescu , Arnaud Van Looveren , Janis Klaise

Many existing methods of counterfactual explanations ignore the intrinsic relationships between data attributes and thus fail to generate realistic counterfactuals. Moreover, the existing models that account for relationships require domain…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-05-31 Xintao Xiang , Artem Lenskiy

The imminent need to interpret the output of a Machine Learning model with counterfactual (CF) explanations - via small perturbations to the input - has been notable in the research community. Although the variety of CF examples is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-23 Kleopatra Markou , Dimitrios Tomaras , Vana Kalogeraki , Dimitrios Gunopulos

The need for interpretability in deep learning has driven interest in counterfactual explanations, which identify minimal changes to an instance that change a model's prediction. Current counterfactual (CF) generation methods require…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-12-11 Van Bach Nguyen , Christin Seifert , Jörg Schlötterer

Large Language Models (LLMs) can produce verbalized self-explanations, yet prior studies suggest that such rationales may not reliably reflect the model's true decision process. We ask whether these explanations nevertheless help users…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-01-08 Pingjun Hong , Benjamin Roth

We propose a formal model for counterfactual estimation with unobserved confounding in "data-rich" settings, i.e., where there are a large number of units and a large number of measurements per unit. Our model provides a bridge between the…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-04-03 Alberto Abadie , Anish Agarwal , Devavrat Shah

Accurately forecasting spectrum demand is a key component for efficient spectrum resource allocation and management. With the rapid growth in demand for wireless services, mobile network operators and regulators face increasing challenges…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-03-11 Colin Brown , Mohamad Alkadamani , Halim Yanikomeroglu

In computational materials science, mechanical properties are typically extracted from simulations by means of analysis routines that seek to mimic their experimental counterparts. However, simulated data often exhibit uncertainties that…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2017-12-07 Paul N. Patrone , Anthony J. Kearsley , Andrew M. Dienstfrey

We propose an importance sampling method for tractable and efficient estimation of counterfactual expressions in general settings, named Exogenous Matching. By minimizing a common upper bound of counterfactual estimators, we transform the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-14 Yikang Chen , Dehui Du , Lili Tian

Precision medicine has the potential to tailor treatment decisions to individual patients using machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI), but it faces significant challenges due to complex biases in clinical observational data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-26 Michael Vollenweider , Manuel Schürch , Chiara Rohrer , Gabriele Gut , Michael Krauthammer , Andreas Wicki

Predicting counterfactual distributions in complex dynamical systems is essential for scientific modeling and decision-making in domains such as public health and medicine. However, existing methods often rely on point estimates or purely…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-15 Wenhao Mu , Zhi Cao , Mehmed Uludag , Alexander Rodríguez

Existing high-dimensional statistical methods are largely established for analyzing individual-level data. In this work, we study estimation and inference for high-dimensional linear models where we only observe "proxy data", which include…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-12 Sai Li , T. Tony Cai , Hongzhe Li

Explainability methods for NLP systems encounter a version of the fundamental problem of causal inference: for a given ground-truth input text, we never truly observe the counterfactual texts necessary for isolating the causal effects of…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-09-29 Zhengxuan Wu , Karel D'Oosterlinck , Atticus Geiger , Amir Zur , Christopher Potts