Related papers: Non-Homogeneous Markov-Switching Generalized Addit…
Markov state models (MSMs) have been broadly adopted for analyzing molecular dynamics trajectories, but the approximate nature of the models that results from coarse-graining into discrete states is a long-known limitation. We show…
We present generalized additive latent and mixed models (GALAMMs) for analysis of clustered data with responses and latent variables depending smoothly on observed variables. A scalable maximum likelihood estimation algorithm is proposed,…
We consider a parametric modelling approach for survival data where covariates are allowed to enter the model through multiple distributional parameters, i.e., scale and shape. This is in contrast with the standard convention of having a…
Multivariate data occurs in a wide range of fields, with ever more flexible model specifications being proposed, often within a multivariate generalised linear mixed effects (MGLME) framework. In this article, we describe an extended…
Switching ARMA models greatly enhance the standard linear models to the extent that different ARMA model is allowed in a different regime, and the regime switching is typically assumed a Markov chain on the finite states of potential…
This paper discusses a general framework for smoothing parameter estimation for models with regular likelihoods constructed in terms of unknown smooth functions of covariates. Gaussian random effects and parametric terms may also be…
Markov switching models are often used to analyze financial returns because of their ability to capture frequently observed stylized facts. In this paper we consider a multivariate Student-t version of the model as a viable alternative to…
The Poisson-gamma state space (PGSS) models have been utilized in the analysis of non-negative integer-valued time series to sequentially obtain closed form filtering and predictive densities. In this study, we show the underlying mechanics…
This paper studies Markov-switching (MS) models with time-varying transition probabilities (TVTP) under various specifications of the transition probability matrix. Especially, we extend the two-regime common-variance setting of the…
Generalized additive models (GAMs) play an important role in modeling and understanding complex relationships in modern applied statistics. They allow for flexible, data-driven estimation of covariate effects. Yet researchers often have a…
Probabilistic inference in high-dimensional state-space models is computationally challenging. For many spatiotemporal systems, however, prior knowledge about the dependency structure of state variables is available. We leverage this…
Spatially varying coefficient (SVC) models are a type of regression model for spatial data where covariate effects vary over space. If there are several covariates, a natural question is which covariates have a spatially varying effect and…
Markov switching models (MSMs) are probabilistic models that employ multiple sets of parameters to describe different dynamic regimes that a time series may exhibit at different periods of time. The switching mechanism between regimes is…
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is one of the most powerful methods to sample from a given probability distribution, of which the Metropolis Adjusted Langevin Algorithm (MALA) is a variant wherein the gradient of the distribution is used…
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are a popular technique in Bayesian statistical modeling. They have long been used to obtain samples from posterior distributions, but recent research has focused on the scalability of these…
Treatment switching is a common occurrence in the management of Multiple Sclerosis (MS), where patients transition across various disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) due to heterogeneous treatment responses, differences in disease…
Adaptive time series forecasting is essential for prediction under regime changes. Several classical methods assume linear Gaussian state space model (LGSSM) with variances constant in time. However, there are many real-world processes that…
Traditional gradient-based sampling methods, like standard Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, require that the desired target distribution is continuous and differentiable. This limits the types of models one can define, although the presented models…
Gaussian Process State Space Models (GP-SSMs) are a non-parametric model class suitable to represent nonlinear dynamics. They become increasingly popular in data-driven modeling approaches, i.e. when no first-order physics-based models are…
We propose a new framework of XGBoost that predicts the entire conditional distribution of a univariate response variable. In particular, XGBoostLSS models all moments of a parametric distribution (i.e., mean, location, scale and shape…