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The combination of boundary flow control and variable speed limit (VSL) is a widely used strategy for highway corridors to maintain safety and throughput when the capacity downstream is dropped. However, most proposed models assume fixed…
In this study, we develop a unified volatility modeling framework that embeds GARCH dynamics directly within recurrent neural networks. We propose two interpretable hybrid architectures, GARCH-GRU and GARCH-LSTM, that integrate the…
This paper examines how shocks to currency volatilities predict exchange rates. Using option-implied volatilities, we construct a dynamic, directed network of volatility connections. Currencies that transmit more volatility shocks, which…
Low-frequency historical data, high-frequency historical data and option data are three major sources, which can be used to forecast the underlying security's volatility. In this paper, we propose two econometric models, which integrate…
We test various volatility models using the Bitcoin spot price series. Our models include HIST, EMA ARCH, GARCH, and EGARCH, models. Both of our in-sample-fit and out-of-sample-forecast results suggest that GARCH and EGARCH models perform…
We introduce a novel distribution-based estimator for the Hurst parameter of log-volatility, leveraging the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic to assess the scaling behavior of entire distributions rather than individual moments. To address the…
Using a large database of 8 million institutional trades executed in the U.S. equity market, we establish a clear crossover between a linear market impact regime and a square-root regime as a function of the volume of the order. Our…
We follow the main stocks belonging to the New York Stock Exchange and to Nasdaq from 2003 to 2012, through years of normality and of crisis, and study the dynamics of networks built on two measures expressing relations between those…
Dynamic dependability models, such as dynamic fault trees (DFTs) and dynamic reliability block diagrams (DRBDs), are introduced to overcome the modeling limitations of traditional models. Recently, higher-order logic (HOL) formalizations of…
We introduce an event based framework of directional changes and overshoots to map continuous financial data into the so-called Intrinsic Network - a state based discretisation of intrinsically dissected time series. Defining a method for…
In order to obtain a reasonable and reliable forecast method for crude oil price volatility, this paper evaluates the forecast performance of single-regime GARCH models (including the standard linear GARCH model and the nonlinear GJR-GARCH…
We propose and experimentally demonstrate an innovative stock index prediction method using a weighted optical reservoir computing system. We construct fundamental market data combined with macroeconomic data and technical indicators to…
Many natural and engineering systems involve the mixing of two fluid streams, in which the effects of density and viscosity gradients play important roles in determining flow stability. We perform linear stability calculations for a jet…
We study the allocation of synthetic portfolios under hierarchical nested, one-factor, and diagonal structures of the population covariance matrix in a high-dimensional scenario. The noise reduction approaches for the sample realizations…
Significant outages from weather and climate extremes have highlighted the critical need for resilience-centered risk management of the grid. This paper proposes a multi-stage stochastic robust optimization (SRO) model that advances the…
Volatility clustering and spillovers are key features of real-world financial time series when there are a lot of cross-sectional financial assets. While network analysis helps connect stocks that are 'similar' or 'correlated', which is…
We discovered that past changes in the market correlation structure are significantly related with future changes in the market volatility. By using correlation-based information filtering networks we device a new tool for forecasting the…
Realised volatility has become increasingly prominent in volatility forecasting due to its ability to capture intraday price fluctuations. With a growing variety of realised volatility estimators, each with unique advantages and…
In this chapter, we consider volatility swap, variance swap and VIX future pricing under different stochastic volatility models and jump diffusion models which are commonly used in financial market. We use convexity correction approximation…
We apply machine learning models to forecast intraday realized volatility (RV), by exploiting commonality in intraday volatility via pooling stock data together, and by incorporating a proxy for the market volatility. Neural networks…