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Effective Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) represents a key aspect for reliable deployment of Large Language Models (LLMs) in automated decision-making and beyond. Yet, for LLM generation with multiple choice structure, the state-of-the-art…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-18 Ramzi Dakhmouche , Adrien Letellier , Hossein Gorji

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have demonstrated strong capabilities in aligning visual and textual modalities, enabling a wide range of applications in multimodal understanding and generation. While they excel in zero-shot and transfer…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-09-25 Hao Dong , Moru Liu , Jian Liang , Eleni Chatzi , Olga Fink

Large Language Models (LLMs) can generate factually inaccurate content even if they have corresponding knowledge, which critically undermines their reliability. Existing approaches attempt to mitigate this by incorporating uncertainty in QA…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-14 Xiaoning Dong , Chengyan Wu , Yajie Wen , Yu Chen , Yun Xue , Jing Zhang , Wei Xu , Bolei Ma

Large language models (LLMs) have been proposed as alternatives to human experts for estimating unknown quantities with associated uncertainty, a process known as Bayesian elicitation. We test this by asking eleven LLMs to estimate…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-03 Luka Hobor , Mario Brcic , Mihael Kovac , Kristijan Poje

Miscalibration in Large Language Models (LLMs) undermines their reliability, highlighting the need for accurate confidence estimation. We introduce CCPS (Calibrating LLM Confidence by Probing Perturbed Representation Stability), a novel…

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive capabilities across various domains, prompting a surge in their practical applications. However, concerns have arisen regarding the trustworthiness of LLMs outputs, particularly in…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-05-08 Danna Zheng , Danyang Liu , Mirella Lapata , Jeff Z. Pan

This paper proposes the use of "multicalibration" to yield interpretable and reliable confidence scores for outputs generated by large language models (LLMs). Multicalibration asks for calibration not just marginally, but simultaneously…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-04-09 Gianluca Detommaso , Martin Bertran , Riccardo Fogliato , Aaron Roth

Fine-tuned Large Language Models (LLMs) often demonstrate poor calibration, with their confidence scores misaligned with actual performance. While calibration has been extensively studied in models trained from scratch, the impact of LLMs'…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-28 Ziming Wang , Zeyu Shi , Haoyi Zhou , Shiqi Gao , Qingyun Sun , Jianxin Li

Large Language Models (LLMs) that can express interpretable and calibrated uncertainty are crucial in high-stakes domains. While methods to compute uncertainty post-hoc exist, they are often sampling-based and therefore computationally…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-09 Azza Jenane , Nassim Walha , Lukas Kuhn , Florian Buettner

Proper confidence calibration of deep neural networks is essential for reliable predictions in safety-critical tasks. Miscalibration can lead to model over-confidence and/or under-confidence; i.e., the model's confidence in its prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-08 Shuang Ao , Stefan Rueger , Advaith Siddharthan

Multimodal machine learning has achieved remarkable progress in a wide range of scenarios. However, the reliability of multimodal learning remains largely unexplored. In this paper, through extensive empirical studies, we identify current…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-05 Huan Ma. Qingyang Zhang , Changqing Zhang , Bingzhe Wu , Huazhu Fu , Joey Tianyi Zhou , Qinghua Hu

When deploying large language models (LLMs) to safety-critical applications, uncertainty quantification (UQ) is of utmost importance to self-assess the reliability of the LLM-based decisions. However, such decisions typically suffer from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-07 Haotian Xiang , Bingcong Li , Qin Lu

Ensuring large language model (LLM) reliability requires distinguishing objective unsolvability (inherent contradictions) from subjective capability limitations (tasks exceeding model competence). Current LLMs often conflate these…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Dengyun Peng , Qiguang Chen , Bofei Liu , Jiannan Guan , Libo Qin , Zheng Yan , Jinhao Liu , Jianshu Zhang , Wanxiang Che

In pseudo-labeling (PL), which is a type of semi-supervised learning, pseudo-labels are assigned based on the confidence scores provided by the classifier; therefore, accurate confidence is important for successful PL. In this study, we…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-04-16 Masahito Toba , Seiichi Uchida , Hideaki Hayashi

Previous literature has proved that Pretrained Language Models (PLMs) can store factual knowledge. However, we find that facts stored in the PLMs are not always correct. It motivates us to explore a fundamental question: How do we calibrate…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-10-19 Qingxiu Dong , Damai Dai , Yifan Song , Jingjing Xu , Zhifang Sui , Lei Li

Decentralized inference provides a scalable and resilient paradigm for serving large language models (LLMs), enabling fragmented global resource utilization and reducing reliance on centralized providers. However, in a permissionless…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2026-01-23 Ke Wang , Zishuo Zhao , Xinyuan Song , Zelin Li , Libin Xia , Chris Tong , Bill Shi , Wenjie Qu , Eric Yang , Lynn Ai

Confidence calibration in LLMs, i.e., aligning their self-assessed confidence with the actual accuracy of their responses, enabling them to self-evaluate the correctness of their outputs. However, current calibration methods for LLMs…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-11-21 Yige Yuan , Bingbing Xu , Hexiang Tan , Fei Sun , Teng Xiao , Wei Li , Huawei Shen , Xueqi Cheng

As large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in critical decision-making systems, the lack of reliable methods to measure their uncertainty presents a fundamental trustworthiness risk. We introduce a normalized confidence score…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-10 Xie Xiaohu , Liu Xiaohu , Yao Benjamin

Large Language Models (LLMs) have been found to have difficulty knowing they do not possess certain knowledge and tend to provide specious answers in such cases. Retrieval Augmentation (RA) has been extensively studied to mitigate LLMs'…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-06-12 Shiyu Ni , Keping Bi , Jiafeng Guo , Xueqi Cheng

Pre-trained language models (PLMs) have gained increasing popularity due to their compelling prediction performance in diverse natural language processing (NLP) tasks. When formulating a PLM-based prediction pipeline for NLP tasks, it is…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-10-17 Yuxin Xiao , Paul Pu Liang , Umang Bhatt , Willie Neiswanger , Ruslan Salakhutdinov , Louis-Philippe Morency
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