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Gaussian processes (GPs) are important probabilistic tools for inference and learning in spatio-temporal modelling problems such as those in climate science and epidemiology. However, existing GP approximations do not simultaneously support…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-21 Will Tebbutt , Arno Solin , Richard E. Turner

Gaussian-process state-space models (GP-SSMs) provide a flexible nonparametric alternative for modeling time-series dynamics that are nonlinear or difficult to specify parametrically. While the Kalman filter is effective for linear-Gaussian…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-02 Genshiro Kitagawa

We introduce a new scalable approximation for Gaussian processes with provable guarantees which hold simultaneously over its entire parameter space. Our approximation is obtained from an improved sample complexity analysis for sparse…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-18 Quang Minh Hoang , Trong Nghia Hoang , Hai Pham , David P. Woodruff

Physically motivated Gaussian process (GP) kernels for stellar variability, like the commonly used damped, driven simple harmonic oscillators that model stellar granulation and p-mode oscillations, quantify the instantaneous covariance…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2026-05-14 Jacob K. Luhn , Ryan A. Rubenzahl , Samuel Halverson , Lily L. Zhao

We introduce a framework and early results for massively scalable Gaussian processes (MSGP), significantly extending the KISS-GP approach of Wilson and Nickisch (2015). The MSGP framework enables the use of Gaussian processes (GPs) on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-11-06 Andrew Gordon Wilson , Christoph Dann , Hannes Nickisch

Particulate matter (PM) is a class of malicious environmental pollutants known to be detrimental to human health. Regulatory efforts aimed at curbing PM levels in different countries often require high resolution space-time maps that can…

Applications · Statistics 2016-04-15 Abhirup Datta , Sudipto Banerjee , Andrew O. Finley , Nicholas A. S. Hamm , Martijn Schaap

Gaussian stochastic process (GaSP) has been widely used as a prior over functions due to its flexibility and tractability in modeling. However, the computational cost in evaluating the likelihood is $O(n^3)$, where $n$ is the number of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-13 Mengyang Gu , Yanxun Xu

A key challenge in spatial statistics is the analysis for massive spatially-referenced data sets. Such analyses often proceed from Gaussian process specifications that can produce rich and robust inference, but involve dense covariance…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-25 Shinichiro Shirota , Andrew O. Finley , Bruce D. Cook , Sudipto Banerjee

The Gaussian process state-space model (GPSSM) has attracted extensive attention for modeling complex nonlinear dynamical systems. However, the existing GPSSM employs separate Gaussian processes (GPs) for each latent state dimension,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-06 Zhidi Lin , Juan Maroñas , Ying Li , Feng Yin , Sergios Theodoridis

Multi-output Gaussian processes (MOGPs) leverage the flexibility and interpretability of GPs while capturing structure across outputs, which is desirable, for example, in spatio-temporal modelling. The key problem with MOGPs is their…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-20 Wessel P. Bruinsma , Eric Perim , Will Tebbutt , J. Scott Hosking , Arno Solin , Richard E. Turner

Gaussian Processes (GPs) are flexible, nonparametric Bayesian models widely used for regression and classification because of their ability to capture complex data patterns and quantify predictive uncertainty. However, the O(n^3)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-14 Hua Huang , Tianshi Xu , Yuanzhe Xi , Edmond Chow

This paper describes and illustrates functionality of the spNNGP R package. The package provides a suite of spatial regression models for Gaussian and non-Gaussian point-referenced outcomes that are spatially indexed. The package implements…

Computation · Statistics 2021-04-16 Andrew O. Finley , Abhirup Datta , Sudipto Banerjee

Convolved Gaussian Process (CGP) is able to capture the correlations not only between inputs and outputs but also among the outputs. This allows a superior performance of using CGP than standard Gaussian Process (GP) in the modelling of…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2017-09-14 Gang Cao , Edmund M-K Lai , Fakhrul Alam

The Gaussian process state-space model (GPSSM) has garnered considerable attention over the past decade. However, the standard GP with a preliminary kernel, such as the squared exponential kernel or Mat\'{e}rn kernel, that is commonly used…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-07 Zhid Lin , Feng Yin , Juan Maroñas

Analysis of cosmic shear is an integral part of understanding structure growth across cosmic time, which in-turn provides us with information about the nature of dark energy. Conventional methods generate \emph{shear maps} from which we can…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2024-10-02 Gregory Sallaberry , Benjamin W. Priest , Robert Armstrong , Michael D. Schneider , Amanda Muyskens , Trevor Steil , Keita Iwabuchi

Continuous-time state-space models (SSMs) are flexible tools for analysing irregularly sampled sequential observations that are driven by an underlying state process. Corresponding applications typically involve restrictive assumptions…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-29 Sina Mews , Roland Langrock , Marius Ötting , Houda Yaqine , Jost Reinecke

This paper proposes an online learning method of Gaussian process state-space model (GP-SSM). GP-SSM is a probabilistic representation learning scheme that represents unknown state transition and/or measurement models as Gaussian processes…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-10-30 Soon-Seo Park , Young-Jin Park , Youngjae Min , Han-Lim Choi

Gaussian process (GP) regression is a powerful probabilistic modeling technique with built-in uncertainty quantification. When one has access to multiple correlated simulations (tasks), it is common to fit a multitask GP (MTGP) surrogate…

Computation · Statistics 2026-03-18 Aleksei G. Sorokin , Pieterjan Robbe , Fred J. Hickernell

We consider evidence integration from potentially dependent observation processes under varying spatio-temporal sampling resolutions and noise levels. We develop a multi-resolution multi-task (MRGP) framework while allowing for both…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-06 Oliver Hamelijnck , Theodoros Damoulas , Kangrui Wang , Mark Girolami

Even though Nearest Neighbor Gaussian Processes (NNGP) alleviate considerably MCMC implementation of Bayesian space-time models, they do not solve the convergence problems caused by high model dimension. Frugal alternatives such as response…

Computation · Statistics 2021-09-15 Sébastien Coube-Sisqueille , Benoît Liquet
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