Related papers: Explore the Ideology of Deep Learning in ENSO Fore…
Very strong El Ni\~no events occur sporadically every 10-20 years. The origin of this bursting behavior still remains elusive. Using a simplified 3-dimensional dynamical model of the tropical Pacific climate system, which captures the El…
The emergence of oscillations in models of the El-Ni\~no effect is of utmost relevance. Here we investigate a coupled nonlinear delay differential system modeling theEl-Ni\~no/ Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, which arises through…
Forecasting the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been a subject of vigorous research due to the important role of the phenomenon in climate dynamics and its worldwide socioeconomic impacts. Over the past decades, numerous models for…
El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation global (ENSO) imprint on sea surface temperature comes in many guises. To identify its tropical fingerprints and impacts on the rest of the climate system, we propose a global approach based on archetypal…
The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the Earth's strongest climate fluctuation on inter-annual time-scales and has global impacts although originating in the tropical Pacific. Many point indices have been developed to describe ENSO…
A non-autonomous stochastic dynamical model approach is developed to describe the seasonal to interannual variability of the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We determine the model coefficients by systematic statistical estimations…
Tropical cyclones (TCs), including hurricanes and typhoons, cause significant property damage and result in fatalities, making it crucial to understand the factors driving extreme TCs. The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences TC…
The El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) behavior can be effectively modeled as a response to a 2nd-order Mathieu/Hill differential equation with periodic coefficients describing sloshing of a volume of water. The forcing of the equation…
The mechanisms of interaction between the seasonal cycle and ENSO are investigated using the Zebiak and Cane ENSO prediction model. The most dominant seasonal effect is found to be due to the wind divergence field, as determined by the…
Long-term stability stands as a crucial requirement in data-driven medium-range global weather forecasting. Spectral bias is recognized as the primary contributor to instabilities, as data-driven methods difficult to learn small-scale…
The representation of nonlinear sub-grid processes, especially clouds, has been a major source of uncertainty in climate models for decades. Cloud-resolving models better represent many of these processes and can now be run globally but…
The recharge oscillator (RO) model has been successfully used to understand different aspects of the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Fitting the RO to observations and climate model simulations consistently suggests that ENSO is a…
Dominant modes of SST in the west and east Pacific show strong but regionally different gradients caused by waves, internal dynamics, and anthropogenic warming, which drives air-sea interaction in the Pacific. The study discusses the…
Seasonal forecasting remains challenging due to the inherent chaotic nature of atmospheric dynamics. This paper introduces DeepSeasons, a novel deep learning approach designed to enhance the accuracy and reliability of seasonal forecasts.…
Despite advances in climate modeling, simulating the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains challenging due to its spatiotemporal diversity and complexity. To address this, we build upon existing model hierarchies to develop a new…
Variational inference is becoming more and more popular for approximating intractable posterior distributions in Bayesian statistics and machine learning. Meanwhile, a few recent works have provided theoretical justification and new…
Deep-learning (DL) weather prediction models offer some notable advantages over traditional physics-based models, including auto-differentiability and low computational cost, enabling detailed diagnostics of forecast errors. Using our…
In recent years, the application of machine learning approaches to time-series forecasting of climate dynamical phenomena has become increasingly active. It is known that applying a band-pass filter to a time-series data is a key to…
Many record-breaking climate extremes arise from both greenhouse gas-induced warming and natural climate variability. Marine cloud brightening, a solar geoengineering strategy originally proposed to reduce long-term warming, could…
The complexity of real-world geophysical systems is often compounded by the fact that the observed measurements depend on hidden variables. These latent variables include unresolved small scales and/or rapidly evolving processes, partially…