Related papers: On lead-lag estimation of non-synchronously observ…
Partial observations of continuous time-series dynamics at arbitrary time stamps exist in many disciplines. Fitting this type of data using statistical models with continuous dynamics is not only promising at an intuitive level but also has…
This article proposes methods to model nonstationary temporal graph processes. This corresponds to modelling the observation of edge variables (relationships between objects) indicating interactions between pairs of nodes (or objects)…
We introduce a framework to infer lead-lag networks between the states of elements of complex systems, determined at different timescales. As such networks encode the causal structure of a system, infering lead-lag networks for many pairs…
The problem of appropriately matching items subject to compatibility constraints arises in a number of important applications. While most of the literature on matching theory focuses on a static setting with a fixed number of items, several…
In this paper, we are interested in linear prediction of a particular kind of stochastic process, namely a marked temporal point process. The observations are event times recorded on the real line, with marks attached to each event. We show…
The nature of phase boundaries in the QCD phase diagram has not been satisfactorily explored by experiments. Based on the Ginzburg-Landau free energy with a spatially inhomogeneous term as a function of a scalar order parameter, it is…
A speed threshold is a crucial parameter in breakdown and capacity distribution analysis as it defines the boundary between free-flow and congested regimes. However, literature on approaches to establishing the breakpoint value for…
A well-known stochastic model for intermittent fluctuations in physical systems is investigated. The model is given by a super-position of uncorrelated exponential pulses, and the degree of pulse overlap is interpreted as an intermittency…
Time series datasets often contain heterogeneous signals, composed of both continuously changing quantities and discretely occurring events. The coupling between these measurements may provide insights into key underlying mechanisms of the…
We introduce a novel non-parametric methodology to test for the dynamical time evolution of the lag-lead structure between two arbitrary time series. The method consists in constructing a distance matrix based on the matching of all sample…
Labeled continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) describe processes subject to random timing and partial observability. In applications such as runtime monitoring, we must incorporate past observations. The timing of these observations matters…
We present a systematic, trend-following strategy, applied to commodity futures markets, that combines univariate trend indicators with cross-sectional trend indicators that capture so-called {\em momentum spillover}, which can occur when…
Many real world applications can be formulated as event forecasting on Continuous Time Dynamic Graphs (CTDGs) where the occurrence of a timed event between two entities is represented as an edge along with its occurrence timestamp in the…
We introduce a method to infer lead-lag networks of agents' actions in complex systems. These networks open the way to both microscopic and macroscopic states prediction in such systems. We apply this method to trader-resolved data in the…
This article introduces autocorrelograms for time series of point processes. Such time series usually arise when a longer temporal or spatio-temporal point process is sliced into smaller time units; for example, when an annual process is…
We determine the asymptotic speed of the first-passage percolation process on some ladder-like graphs (or width-2 stretches) when the times associated with different edges are independent and exponentially distributed but not necessarily…
We study continuous time Markov processes on graphs. The notion of frequency is introduced, which serves well as a scaling factor between any Markov time of a continuous time Markov process and that of its jump chain. As an application, we…
We analyse the temporal changes in the cross correlations of returns on the New York Stock Exchange. We show that lead-lag relationships between daily returns of stocks vanished in less than twenty years. We have found that even for high…
In this paper, we establish the partial correlation graph for multivariate continuous-time stochastic processes, assuming only that the underlying process is stationary and mean-square continuous with expectation zero and spectral density…
Trawl processes belong to the class of continuous-time, strictly stationary, infinitely divisible processes; they are defined as Levy bases evaluated over deterministic trawl sets. This article presents the first nonparametric estimator of…