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Related papers: Enhanced Multi-model Online Conformal Prediction

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Conformal prediction is a distribution-free and model-agnostic uncertainty-quantification method that provides finite-sample prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage. In this work, for the first time, we apply conformal-prediction to…

Nuclear Theory · Physics 2026-02-02 Habib Yousefi Dezdarani , Ryan Curry , Alexandros Gezerlis

Deep neural networks exhibit remarkable performance, yet their black-box nature limits their utility in fields like healthcare where interpretability is crucial. Existing explainability approaches often sacrifice accuracy and lack…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-08 Linhui Huang , Sayeri Lala , Niraj K. Jha

Conformal prediction can be used to construct prediction sets that cover the true outcome with a desired probability, but can sometimes lead to large prediction sets that are costly in practice. The most useful outcome is a singleton…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-05 Tao Wang , Yan Sun , Edgar Dobriban

When used in complex engineered systems, such as communication networks, artificial intelligence (AI) models should be not only as accurate as possible, but also well calibrated. A well-calibrated AI model is one that can reliably quantify…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-16 Kfir M. Cohen , Sangwoo Park , Osvaldo Simeone , Shlomo Shamai

Unreliable predictions can occur when using artificial intelligence (AI) systems with negative consequences for downstream applications, particularly when employed for decision-making. Conformal prediction provides a model-agnostic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-15 Geethen Singh , Glenn Moncrieff , Zander Venter , Kerry Cawse-Nicholson , Jasper Slingsby , Tamara B Robinson

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the process of systematically determining and characterizing the degree of confidence in computational model predictions. In the context of systems biology, especially with dynamic models, UQ is crucial…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-29 Alberto Portela , Julio R. Banga , Marcos Matabuena

Decision support systems are designed to assist human experts in classification tasks by providing conformal prediction sets derived from a pre-trained model. This human-AI collaboration has demonstrated enhanced classification performance…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-12 Helbert Paat , Guohao Shen

Conformal prediction (CP), a distribution-free uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework, reliably provides valid predictive inference for black-box models. CP constructs prediction sets that contain the true output with a specified…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-12 Xiaofan Zhou , Baiting Chen , Yu Gui , Lu Cheng

When machine learning systems meet real world applications, accuracy is only one of several requirements. In this paper, we assay a complementary perspective originating from the increasing availability of pre-trained and regularly…

We present an application of conformal prediction, a form of uncertainty quantification with guarantees, to the detection of railway signals. State-of-the-art architectures are tested and the most promising one undergoes the process of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-01-27 Léo Andéol , Thomas Fel , Florence De Grancey , Luca Mossina

Image segmentation is a challenging task influenced by multiple sources of uncertainty, such as the data labeling process or the sampling of training data. In this paper we focus on binary segmentation and address these challenges using…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-03-10 Luca Mossina , Corentin Friedrich

This paper proposes probabilistic conformal prediction (PCP), a predictive inference algorithm that estimates a target variable by a discontinuous predictive set. Given inputs, PCP construct the predictive set based on random samples from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-22 Zhendong Wang , Ruijiang Gao , Mingzhang Yin , Mingyuan Zhou , David M. Blei

Standard conformal prediction offers a marginal guarantee on coverage, but for prediction sets to be truly useful, they should ideally ensure coverage conditional on each test point. Unfortunately, it is impossible to achieve exact,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-11 Jivat Neet Kaur , Michael I. Jordan , Ahmed Alaa

Conformal inference is a statistical method used to construct prediction sets for point predictors, providing reliable uncertainty quantification with probability guarantees. This method utilizes historical labeled data to estimate the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-05 Xiaoyi Su , Zhixin Zhou , Rui Luo

Existing conformal prediction algorithms estimate prediction intervals at target confidence levels to characterize the performance of a regression model on new test samples. However, considering an autonomous system consisting of multiple…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-25 Yunye Gong , Yi Yao , Xiao Lin , Ajay Divakaran , Melinda Gervasio

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a distribution-free method for constructing prediction sets with marginal finite-sample coverage guarantees, making it a suitable framework for reliable uncertainty quantification in safety-critical object…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Christopher Ries , Moussa Kassem Sbeyti , Nicolas Bianco , Nadja Klein

Based on the framework of Conformal Prediction (CP), we study the online construction of confidence sets given a black-box machine learning model. By converting the target confidence levels into quantile levels, the problem can be reduced…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-23 Zhiyu Zhang , Zhou Lu , Heng Yang

Uncertainty estimates must be calibrated (i.e., accurate) and sharp (i.e., informative) in order to be useful. This has motivated a variety of methods for recalibration, which use held-out data to turn an uncalibrated model into a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-06 Charles Marx , Shengjia Zhao , Willie Neiswanger , Stefano Ermon

Prediction sets provide a means of quantifying the uncertainty in predictive tasks. Using held out calibration data, conformal prediction and risk control can produce prediction sets that exhibit statistically valid error control in a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-05 Bror Hultberg , Dave Zachariah , Antônio H. Ribeiro

Conformal predictors provide set or functional predictions that are valid under the assumption of randomness, i.e., under the assumption of independent and identically distributed data. The question asked in this paper is whether there are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-10 Vladimir Vovk