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P-splines provide a flexible setting for modeling nonlinear model components based on a discretized penalty structure with a relatively simple computational backbone. Under a Bayesian inferential framework based on Markov chain Monte Carlo,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-03 Oswaldo Gressani , Paul H. C. Eilers

A novel computationally efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme for latent Gaussian models (LGMs) is proposed in this paper. The sampling scheme is a two block Gibbs sampling scheme designed to exploit the model structure of LGMs.…

Computation · Statistics 2015-06-23 Óli Páll Geirsson , Birgir Hrafnkelsson , Daniel Simpson , Helgi Sigurðarson

This paper derives two new optimization-driven Monte Carlo algorithms inspired from variable splitting and data augmentation. In particular, the formulation of one of the proposed approaches is closely related to the alternating direction…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-03-27 Maxime Vono , Nicolas Dobigeon , Pierre Chainais

We present a polyphonic MIDI score-following algorithm capable of following performances with arbitrary repeats and skips, based on a probabilistic model of musical performances. It is attractive in practical applications of score following…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2014-07-08 Eita Nakamura , Tomohiko Nakamura , Yasuyuki Saito , Nobutaka Ono , Shigeki Sagayama

Gibbs sampling is one of the most popular Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms because of its simplicity, scalability, and wide applicability within many fields of statistics, science, and engineering. In the labeled random finite sets…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-06-28 Anthony Trezza , Donald J. Bucci , Pramod K. Varshney

The MC$^3$ (Madigan and York, 1995) and Gibbs (George and McCulloch, 1997) samplers are the most widely implemented algorithms for Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) in linear regression models. These samplers draw a variable at random in each…

Computation · Statistics 2013-06-26 Demetris Lamnisos , Jim E. Griffin , Mark F. J. Steel

We consider a class of filtering problems for large populations where each individual is modeled by the same hidden Markov model (HMM). In this paper, we focus on aggregate inference problems in HMMs with discrete state space and continuous…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-09 Qinsheng Zhang , Rahul Singh , Yongxin Chen

Bayesian shrinkage methods have generated a lot of recent interest as tools for high-dimensional regression and model selection. These methods naturally facilitate tractable uncertainty quantification and incorporation of prior information.…

Computation · Statistics 2017-04-17 Bala Rajaratnam , Doug Sparks , Kshitij Khare , Liyuan Zhang

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) offer a robust and efficient framework for analyzing time series data, modelling both the underlying latent state progression over time and the observation process, conditional on the latent state. However, a…

Applications · Statistics 2024-07-19 Ioannis Rotous , Alex Diana , Alessio Farcomeni , Eleni Matechou , Andréa Thiebault

The ordered allocation sampler is a Gibbs sampler designed to explore the posterior distribution in nonparametric mixture models. It encompasses both infinite mixtures and finite mixtures with random number of components, and it has be…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-16 Maria F. Gil-Leyva , Fidel Selva , Pierpaolo De Blasi

Gaussian boson sampling (GBS) is a promising protocol for demonstrating quantum computational advantage. One of the key steps for proving classical hardness of GBS is the so-called ``hiding conjecture'', which asserts that one can ``hide''…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-09-03 Laura Shou , Sarah H. Miller , Victor Galitski

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric mixture model for prediction- and information extraction tasks with an efficient inference scheme. It models categorical-valued time series that exhibit dynamics from multiple underlying patterns (e.g.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-06-21 Jan Reubold , Thorsten Strufe , Ulf Brefeld

Stochastic differential equation mixed-effects models (SDEMEMs) are flexible hierarchical models that are able to account for random variability inherent in the underlying time-dynamics, as well as the variability between experimental units…

Computation · Statistics 2021-01-22 Samuel Wiqvist , Andrew Golightly , Ashleigh T. McLean , Umberto Picchini

Hidden Markov models (HMM) have been widely used by scientists to model stochastic systems: the underlying process is a discrete Markov chain and the observations are noisy realizations of the underlying process. Determining the number of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-07-18 Yang Chen , Cheng-Der Fuh , Chu-Lan Michael Kao

This paper presents an improved implicit sampling method for hierarchical Bayesian inverse problems. A widely used approach for sampling posterior distribution is based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). However, the samples generated by…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-11-27 Xiaoyan Song , Lijian Jiang , Guanghui Zheng

We propose a Bayesian hidden Markov model for analyzing time series and sequential data where a special structure of the transition probability matrix is embedded to model explicit-duration semi-Markovian dynamics. Our formulation allows…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-23 Beniamino Hadj-Amar , Jack Jewson , Mark Fiecas

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) samples efficiently from high-dimensional posterior distributions with proposed parameter draws obtained by iterating on a discretized version of the Hamiltonian dynamics. The iterations make HMC…

Computation · Statistics 2019-05-03 Khue-Dung Dang , Matias Quiroz , Robert Kohn , Minh-Ngoc Tran , Mattias Villani

Standard Gibbs sampling applied to a multivariate normal distribution with a specified precision matrix is equivalent in fundamental ways to the Gauss-Seidel iterative solution of linear equations in the precision matrix. Specifically, the…

Computation · Statistics 2015-05-14 Colin Fox , Albert Parker

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are popular models to identify a finite number of latent states from sequential data. However, fitting them to large data sets can be computationally demanding because most likelihood maximization techniques…

A central task in many applications is reasoning about processes that change over continuous time. Continuous-Time Bayesian Networks is a general compact representation language for multi-component continuous-time processes. However, exact…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-06-18 Tal El-Hay , Nir Friedman , Raz Kupferman