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This paper discusses the fundamental principles of causal inference - the area of statistics that estimates the effect of specific occurrences, treatments, interventions, and exposures on a given outcome from experimental and observational…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-03 Francesca Dominici , Falco J. Bargagli-Stoffi , Fabrizia Mealli

Causal inference on time series data is a challenging problem, especially in the presence of unobserved confounders. This work focuses on estimating the causal effect between two time series that are confounded by a third, unobserved time…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-19 Felix Schur , Jonas Peters

Understanding directed temporal interactions in multivariate time series is essential for interpreting complex dynamical systems and the predictive models trained on them. We present Causal-INSIGHT, a model-agnostic, post-hoc interpretation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-27 Benjamin Redden , Hui Wang , Shuyan Li

We propose a nonparametric test of spatial independence for data observed on irregular, non-lattice point clouds $\mathcal{V}_{n}\subset\mathbb{R}^{2}$. For each location $v\in\mathcal{V}_{n}$, we encode the local spatial configuration…

Inferring causal relationships from observational data is often challenging due to endogeneity. This paper provides new identification results for causal effects of discrete, ordered and continuous treatments using multiple binary…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-10-21 Nadja van 't Hoff

We introduce Spectral Guidance, a framework for controlling diffusion models by leveraging the intrinsic geometry of the generative process. As data is progressively corrupted by noise, only a small number of features remain informative for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-29 Gabriel Moreira , Manuel Marques , João Paulo Costeira , Chenyan Xiong

Causal discovery, the problem of inferring the direction of causality, is generally ill-posed. We use the language of structural causal models (SCM) to show that assuming that the causal relations are acyclic and invariant across multiple…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-14 Francesco Montagna , Francesco Locatello

Causality - the principle stating that the output of a system cannot temporally precede the input - is a universal property of nature. Here, we show that analogous input-output relations can also be realized in the spectral domain by…

Optics · Physics 2021-08-05 Zeki Hayran , Aobo Chen , Francesco Monticone

Causal inference in connected populations is non-trivial, because the treatment assignments of units can affect the outcomes of other units via treatment and outcome spillover. Since outcome spillover induces dependence among outcomes,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-25 Subhankar Bhadra , Michael Schweinberger

We prove a general existence result in stochastic optimal control in discrete time where controls take values in conditional metric spaces, and depend on the current state and the information of past decisions through the evolution of a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-12-19 Asgar Jamneshan , Michael Kupper , José Miguel Zapata

Linear causal analysis is central to a wide range of important application spanning finance, the physical sciences, and engineering. Much of the existing literature in linear causal analysis operates in the time domain. Unfortunately, the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-03-11 Francois W. Belletti , Evan R. Sparks , Michael J. Franklin , Alexandre M. Bayen , Joseph E. Gonzalez

In contrast to problems of interference in (exogenous) treatments, models of interference in unit-specific (endogenous) outcomes do not usually produce a reduced-form representation where outcomes depend on other units' treatment status…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-06-17 Konrad Menzel

Stochastic optimization naturally arises in machine learning. Efficient algorithms with provable guarantees, however, are still largely missing, when the objective function is nonconvex and the data points are dependent. This paper studies…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-10-02 Minshuo Chen , Lin Yang , Mengdi Wang , Tuo Zhao

A structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) process is a linear causal model for variables that evolve over a discrete set of time points and between which there may be lagged and instantaneous effects. The qualitative causal structure of an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-08-19 Nicolas-Domenic Reiter , Jonas Wahl , Andreas Gerhardus , Jakob Runge

In multivariate time series analysis, understanding the underlying causal relationships among variables is often of interest for various applications. Directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) provide a powerful framework for representing causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-30 Arkaprava Roy , Anindya Roy , Subhashis Ghosal

Identifying causal relationships is a challenging yet crucial problem in many fields of science like epidemiology, climatology, ecology, genomics, economics and neuroscience, to mention only a few. Recent studies have demonstrated that…

In this work we investigate an inverse problem of identifying a spatially variable order in the one-dimensional subdiffusion model from the boundary flux measurement. The model involves a generalized Caputo derivative in time, and arises in…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2024-11-28 Jiho Hong , Bangti Jin , Yavar Kian

This paper is concerned with the fractional evolution equation with a discrete distribution of Caputo time-derivatives such that the largest and the smallest orders, $\alpha$ and $\alpha_m$, satisfy the conditions $1<\alpha\le 2$ and…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2018-01-11 Emilia Bazhlekova , Ivan Bazhlekov

Causal discovery in time series is increasingly performed using nonlinear machine-learning models, yet the resulting causal relationships are almost always summarized by scalar edge scores. We argue that this practice obscures the true…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-29 Valentina V. Kuskova , Dmitry Zaytsev , Michael Coppedge

Time-reversal symmetry is a prevalent feature of microscopic physics, including operational quantum theory and classical general relativity. Previous works have studied indefinite causal structure using the language of operational quantum…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2024-06-27 Luke Mrini , Lucien Hardy