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Standard autoregressive decoding in large language models (LLMs) is inherently short-sighted, often failing to find globally optimal reasoning paths due to its token-by-token generation process. While inference-time strategies like…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-23 Huayu Li , ZhengXiao He , Siyuan Tian , Jinghao Wen , Ao Li

Bayesian model updating facilitates the calibration of analytical models based on observations and the quantification of uncertainties in model parameters such as stiffness and mass. This process significantly enhances damage assessment and…

Applications · Statistics 2024-08-06 Taro Yaoyama , Tatsuya Itoi , Jun Iyama

Structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models are widely used to analyze the simultaneous relationships between multiple time-dependent data. Various statistical inference methods have been studied to overcome the identification problems…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-03-18 Masato Shimokawa , Kou Fujimori

A semi-implicit two-phase double-point Material Point Method (MPM) formulation, based on the incremental fractional-step method to model large deformation geotechnical problems has been derived. The semi-implicit formulation has two…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-08-22 Mian Xie , Pedro Navas , Susana Lopez-Querol

Multidimensional factor models with moderations on all model parameters have so far been limited to single-factor and two-factor models. This does not align well with existing psychological measures, which are commonly intended to assess…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-22 R. Noah Padgett

In this paper, we study convex optimization methods for computing the trace norm regularized least squares estimate in multivariate linear regression. The so-called factor estimation and selection (FES) method, recently proposed by Yuan et…

Methodology · Statistics 2009-04-07 Zhaosong Lu , Renato D. C. Monteiro , Ming Yuan

Current autoencoder-based disentangled representation learning methods achieve disentanglement by penalizing the (aggregate) posterior to encourage statistical independence of the latent factors. This approach introduces a trade-off between…

We develop a constructive approach for $\ell_0$-penalized estimation in the sparse accelerated failure time (AFT) model with high-dimensional covariates. Our proposed method is based on Stute's weighted least squares criterion combined with…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-11 Xingdong Feng , Jian Huang , Yuling Jiao , Shuang Zhang

In this paper, we consider linear state-space models with compressible innovations and convergent transition matrices in order to model spatiotemporally sparse transient events. We perform parameter and state estimation using a dynamic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-10-21 Abbas Kazemipour , Ji Liu , Patrick Kanold , Min Wu , Behtash Babadi

We propose an iterative method for joint state and parameter estimation using measurements on a time interval [0,T] for systems that are backward output stabilizable. Since this time interval is fixed, errors in initial state may have a big…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-09-23 Atte Aalto

Inference for models with recursively defined likelihoods is computationally demanding, limiting scalability to large datasets. We propose a stabilised weighted subsampling methodology for accelerated inference based on an unbiased…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-14 Matias Quiroz , Aishwarya Bhaskaran , Zixuan Wang , Thomas Goodwin

We develop an estimation methodology for a factor model for high-dimensional matrix-valued time series, where common stochastic trends and common stationary factors can be present. We study, in particular, the estimation of (row and column)…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-06 Rong Chen , Simone Giannerini , Greta Goracci , Lorenzo Trapani

This paper proposes a multitask learning framework for probabilistic model updating by jointly using strain and acceleration measurements. This framework can enhance the structural damage assessment and response prediction of existing steel…

Applications · Statistics 2024-02-01 Taro Yaoyama , Tatsuya Itoi , Jun Iyama

Markov Random Fields (MRFs) are a popular model for several pattern recognition and reconstruction problems in robotics and computer vision. Inference in MRFs is intractable in general and related work resorts to approximation algorithms.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2018-12-18 Siyi Hu , Luca Carlone

Portfolio allocation and risk management make use of correlation matrices and heavily rely on the choice of a proper correlation matrix to be used. In this regard, one important question is related to the choice of the proper sample period…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2020-04-29 Giuseppe Brandi , Ruggero Gramatica , Tiziana Di Matteo

In many inverse problems, model parameters cannot be precisely determined from observational data. Bayesian inference provides a mechanism for capturing the resulting parameter uncertainty, but typically at a high computational cost. This…

Computation · Statistics 2019-03-28 Matthew Parno , Tarek Moselhy , Youssef Marzouk

This paper introduces a Fault Diagnosis (Detection, Isolation, and Estimation) method using Set-Membership Estimation (SME) designed for a class of nonlinear systems that are linear to the fault parameters. The methodology advances fault…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-11-06 A. Tsolakis , L. Ferranti , V. Reppa

In this work, we propose a subsystem decomposition approach and a distributed estimation scheme for a class of implicit two-time-scale nonlinear systems. Taking the advantage of the two-time-scale separation, these processes are decomposed…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-10-05 Sarupa Debnath , Soumya Ranjan Sahoo , Benjamin Decardi-Nelson , Jinfeng Liu

In this paper, we consider the nonstationary matrix-valued time series with common stochastic trends. Unlike the traditional factor analysis which flattens matrix observations into vectors, we adopt a matrix factor model in order to fully…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-08-25 Degui Li , Yayi Yan , Qiwei Yao

Spatio-temporal (ST) prediction is an important and widely used technique in data mining and analytics, especially for ST data in urban systems such as transportation data. In practice, the ST data generation is usually influenced by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-08 Jiahao Ji , Jingyuan Wang , Yu Mou , Cheng Long