English
Related papers

Related papers: Conformal Blindness: A Note on $A$-Cryptic change-…

200 papers

Conformal prediction (CP) is a framework to quantify uncertainty of machine learning classifiers including deep neural networks. Given a testing example and a trained classifier, CP produces a prediction set of candidate labels with a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-01 Subhankar Ghosh , Yuanjie Shi , Taha Belkhouja , Yan Yan , Jana Doppa , Brian Jones

Current instance segmentation models achieve high performance on average predictions, but lack principled uncertainty quantification: their outputs are not calibrated, and there is no guarantee that a predicted mask is close to the ground…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-02-11 Kerri Lu , Dan M. Kluger , Stephen Bates , Sherrie Wang

Conformal inference is a method that provides prediction sets for machine learning models, operating independently of the underlying distributional assumptions and relying solely on the exchangeability of training and test data. Despite its…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-01 Daniela Corbetta , Livio Finos , Ludwig Geistlinger , Davide Risso

Conformal prediction is an emerging technique for uncertainty quantification that constructs prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true label with a predefined probability. Previous works often employ temperature scaling to calibrate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-24 Huajun Xi , Jianguo Huang , Kangdao Liu , Lei Feng , Hongxin Wei

An open question in \emph{Imprecise Probabilistic Machine Learning} is how to empirically derive a credal region (i.e., a closed and convex family of probabilities on the output space) from the available data, without any prior knowledge or…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-29 Michele Caprio , David Stutz , Shuo Li , Arnaud Doucet

While counterfactual fairness of point predictors is well studied, its extension to prediction sets--central to fair decision-making under uncertainty--remains underexplored. On the other hand, conformal prediction (CP) provides efficient,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-13 Ozgur Guldogan , Neeraj Sarna , Yuanyuan Li , Michael Berger

Model selection/optimization in conformal inference is challenging, since it may break the exchangeability between labeled and unlabeled data. We study this problem in the context of conformal selection, which uses conformal p-values to…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-28 Tian Bai , Ying Jin

Conformal prediction provides a powerful framework for constructing prediction intervals with finite-sample guarantees, yet its robustness under distribution shifts remains a significant challenge. This paper addresses this limitation by…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-20 Liviu Aolaritei , Zheyu Oliver Wang , Julie Zhu , Michael I. Jordan , Youssef Marzouk

This research leverages Conformal Prediction (CP) in the form of Conformal Predictive Systems (CPS) to accurately estimate uncertainty in a suite of machine learning (ML)-based radio metric models [1] as well as in a 2-D map-based ML path…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-14 Alexis Bose , Jonathan Ethier , Ryan G. Dempsey , Yifeng Qiu

In many fairness and distribution robustness problems, one has access to labeled data from multiple source distributions yet the test data may come from an arbitrary member or a mixture of them. We study the problem of constructing a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-07 Yuqi Yang , Ying Jin

Adaptive Conformal Inference (ACI) provides finite-sample coverage guarantees, enhancing the prediction reliability under non-exchangeability. This study demonstrates that these desirable properties of ACI do not require the use of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-02 Johan Hallberg Szabadváry , Tuwe Löfström

Concept Bottleneck Models (CBMs) are interpretable models that route predictions through a layer of human-interpretable concepts. While widely studied in vision and, more recently, in NLP, CBMs remain largely unexplored in multimodal…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-03-16 Pierre Moreau , Emeline Pineau Ferrand , Yann Choho , Benjamin Wong , Annabelle Blangero , Milan Bhan

The requirement of uncertainty quantification for anomaly detection systems has become increasingly important. In this context, effectively controlling Type I error rates ($\alpha$) without compromising the statistical power ($1-\beta$) of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-21 Oliver Hennhöfer , Christine Preisach

This tutorial focuses on efficient methods to predictive monitoring (PM), the problem of detecting at runtime future violations of a given requirement from the current state of a system. While performing model checking at runtime would…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-12-05 Francesca Cairoli , Luca Bortolussi , Nicola Paoletti

Credal sets are sets of probability distributions that are considered as candidates for an imprecisely known ground-truth distribution. In machine learning, they have recently attracted attention as an appealing formalism for uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-19 Alireza Javanmardi , David Stutz , Eyke Hüllermeier

This paper investigates a novel offline change-point detection problem from an information-theoretic perspective. In contrast to most related works, we assume that the knowledge of the underlying pre- and post-change distributions are not…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2021-10-05 Haiyun He , Qiaosheng Zhang , Vincent Y. F. Tan

Conformal predictors are machine learning algorithms developed in the 1990's by Gammerman, Vovk, and their research team, to provide set predictions with guaranteed confidence level. Over recent years, they have grown in popularity and have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-12 Anthony Bellotti , Xindi Zhao

Conformal prediction is a simple and powerful tool that can quantify uncertainty without any distributional assumptions. Many existing methods only address the average coverage guarantee, which is not ideal compared to the stronger…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-21 Xing Han , Ziyang Tang , Joydeep Ghosh , Qiang Liu

Standard conformal anomaly detection provides marginal finite-sample guarantees under the assumption of exchangeability . However, real-world data often exhibit distribution shifts, necessitating a weighted conformal approach to adapt to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-25 Oliver Hennhöfer , Christine Preisach

Rigorous uncertainty quantification is essential for the safe deployment of autonomous systems in unconstrained environments. Conformal Prediction (CP) provides a distribution-free framework for this task, yet its standard formulations rely…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-14 Renukanandan Tumu , Aditya Singh , Rahul Mangharam