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AI models are often evaluated based on their ability to predict the outcome of interest. However, in many AI for social impact applications, the presence of an intervention that affects the outcome can bias the evaluation. Randomized…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-18 Winston Chen , Michael W. Sjoding , Jenna Wiens

Choice modeling is at the core of understanding how changes to the competitive landscape affect consumer choices and reshape market equilibria. In this paper, we propose a fundamental characterization of choice functions that encompasses a…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-02-21 Amandeep Singh , Ye Liu , Hema Yoganarasimhan

In auction and matching markets, estimating the welfare effects of demand-side treatments is challenging because of spillovers through the mechanism. We develop a quasi-experimental approach that avoids parametric assumptions typically…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-03-03 Evan Munro

Estimation of the average treatment effect (ATE) is a central problem in causal inference. In recent times, inference for the ATE in the presence of high-dimensional covariates has been extensively studied. Among the diverse approaches that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-11-01 Kuanhao Jiang , Rajarshi Mukherjee , Subhabrata Sen , Pragya Sur

We present a new approach to the problems of evaluating and learning personalized decision policies from observational data of past contexts, decisions, and outcomes. Only the outcome of the enacted decision is available and the historical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-06-04 Nathan Kallus

Quantization techniques commonly reduce the inference costs of neural networks by restricting the precision of weights and activations. Recent studies show that also reducing the precision of the accumulator can further improve hardware…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-22 Ian Colbert , Alessandro Pappalardo , Jakoba Petri-Koenig , Yaman Umuroglu

When estimating causal effects from observational data with numerous covariates, employing penalized covariate selection can improve the estimation efficiency. Outcome-oriented covariate selection, which involves selecting covariates…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-14 Wataru Hongo , Shuji Ando , Jun Tsuchida , Takashi Sozu

Advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) enables utilities to obtain granular energy consumption data, which offers a unique opportunity to design customer segmentation strategies based on their impact on various operational metrics in…

Applications · Statistics 2020-03-13 Yuxuan Yuan , Kaveh Dehghanpour , Fankun Bu , Zhaoyu Wang

Propensity scores are commonly used to estimate treatment effects from observational data. We argue that the probabilistic output of a learned propensity score model should be calibrated -- i.e., a predictive treatment probability of 90%…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-06 Shachi Deshpande , Volodymyr Kuleshov

Pricing decisions of companies require an understanding of the causal effect of a price change on the demand. When real-life pricing experiments are infeasible, data-driven decision-making must be based on alternative data sources such as…

Applications · Statistics 2024-07-03 Lauri Valkonen , Santtu Tikka , Jouni Helske , Juha Karvanen

This paper develops an updatable inverse probability weighting (UIPW) estimation for the generalized linear models with response missing at random in streaming data sets. A two-step online updating algorithm is provided for the proposed…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-10-10 Xianhua Zhang , Lu lin , Qihua Wang

In observational studies, the assumption of sufficient overlap (positivity) is fundamental for the identification and estimation of causal effects. Failing to account for this assumption yields inaccurate and potentially infeasible…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-07 Jaehyuk Jang , Suehyun Kim , Kwonsang Lee

Estimands using the treatment policy strategy for addressing intercurrent events are common in Phase III clinical trials. One estimation approach for this strategy is retrieved dropout whereby observed data following an intercurrent event…

The incorporation of "real-world data" to supplement the analysis of trials and improve decision-making has spurred the development of statistical techniques to account for introduced confounding. Recently, "hybrid" methods have been…

We consider estimation of a linear functional of the treatment effect using adaptively collected data. This task finds a variety of applications including the off-policy evaluation (\textsf{OPE}) in contextual bandits, and estimation of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-21 Jeonghwan Lee , Cong Ma

Consumer agency in the digital age is increasingly constrained by systemic barriers and algorithmic manipulation, raising concerns about the authenticity of consumption choices. Nowadays, financial decisions are shaped by external pressures…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2025-08-20 Pegah Nokhiz , Aravinda Kanchana Ruwanpathirana

The increasing deployment of artificial intelligence (AI) in clinical settings challenges foundational assumptions underlying traditional frameworks of medical evidence. Classical statistical approaches, centered on randomized controlled…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-07 Richik Chakraborty

Conventional automated decision-support systems often prioritize predictive accuracy, overlooking the complexities of real-world settings where stakeholders' preferences may diverge or conflict. This can lead to outcomes that disadvantage…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-25 Vittoria Vineis , Giuseppe Perelli , Gabriele Tolomei

In observational studies, propensity scores are commonly estimated by maxi- mum likelihood but may fail to balance high-dimensional pre-treatment covariates even after specification search. We introduce a general framework that unifies and…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-03-22 Qingyuan Zhao

Causal inference typically assumes centralized access to individual-level data. Yet, in practice, data are often decentralized across multiple sites, making centralization infeasible due to privacy, logistical, or legal constraints. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-04 Rémi Khellaf , Aurélien Bellet , Julie Josse