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We develop asymptotic approximations that can be applied to sequential estimation and inference problems, adaptive randomized controlled trials, and related settings. In batched adaptive settings where the decision at one stage can affect…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-02-25 Keisuke Hirano , Jack R. Porter

We consider the problem of efficient inference of the Average Treatment Effect in a sequential experiment where the policy governing the assignment of subjects to treatment or control can change over time. We first provide a central limit…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-05 Thomas Cook , Alan Mishler , Aaditya Ramdas

The paper considers the problem of distributed adaptive linear parameter estimation in multi-agent inference networks. Local sensing model information is only partially available at the agents and inter-agent communication is assumed to be…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2012-08-07 Soummya Kar , Jose' M. F. Moura , H. Vincent Poor

Higher criticism is a large-scale testing procedure that can attain the optimal detection boundary for sparse and faint signals. However, there has been a lack of knowledge in most existing works about its asymptotic distribution for more…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-11 Jingkun Qiu

The current work is motivated by the need for robust statistical methods for precision medicine; as such, we address the need for statistical methods that provide actionable inference for a single unit at any point in time. We aim to learn…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-07-02 Ivana Malenica , Aurelien Bibaut , Mark J. van der Laan

For a partial structural change in a linear regression model with a single break, we develop a continuous record asymptotic framework to build inference methods for the break date. We have T observations with a sampling frequency h over a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-11-16 Alessandro Casini , Pierre Perron

We study maximum-likelihood-type estimation for diffusion processes when the coefficients are nonrandom and observation occurs in nonsynchronous manner. The problem of nonsynchronous observations is important when we consider the analysis…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-07-04 Teppei Ogihara

Recent years have seen tremendous advances in the theory and application of sequential experiments. While these experiments are not always designed with hypothesis testing in mind, researchers may still be interested in performing tests…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-06-29 Karun Adusumilli

In this paper, we study the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator for an event time distribution function at a point in the current status model with observation times supported on a grid of potentially unknown sparsity and with…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-05-29 Runlong Tang , Moulinath Banerjee , Michael R. Kosorok

We consider parametric estimation and tests for multi-dimensional diffusion processes with a small dispersion parameter $\varepsilon$ from discrete observations. For parametric estimation of diffusion processes, the main target is to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-01-20 Tetsuya Kawai , Masayuki Uchida

This paper considers the problem of designing time-dependent, real-time control policies for controllable nonlinear diffusion processes, with the goal of obtaining maximally-informative observations about parameters of interest. More…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-10-16 Giles Hooker , Kevin K. Lin , Bruce Rogers

We develop methods for forming prediction sets in an online setting where the data generating distribution is allowed to vary over time in an unknown fashion. Our framework builds on ideas from conformal inference to provide a general…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-10 Isaac Gibbs , Emmanuel Candès

Reuse of data in adaptive workflows poses challenges regarding overfitting and the statistical validity of results. Previous work has demonstrated that interacting with data via differentially private algorithms can mitigate overfitting,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-13 Neil G. Marchant , Benjamin I. P. Rubinstein

This paper considers inference for conditional moment inequality models using a multiscale statistic. We derive the asymptotic distribution of this test statistic and use the result to propose feasible critical values that have a simple…

Applications · Statistics 2015-12-10 Timothy B. Armstrong , Hock Peng Chan

Randomized experiments have become important tools in empirical research. In a completely randomized treatment-control experiment, the simple difference in means of the outcome is unbiased for the average treatment effect, and covariate…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-01-01 Lihua Lei , Peng Ding

Inference-time controllable generation is essential for real-world applications of unconditional diffusion models. However, most existing techniques focus on individual samples, struggling in applications that require the sample population…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Hao Luan , See-Kiong Ng , Chun Kai Ling

Switching dynamical systems provide a powerful, interpretable modeling framework for inference in time-series data in, e.g., the natural sciences or engineering applications. Since many areas, such as biology or discrete-event systems, are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-30 Lukas Köhs , Bastian Alt , Heinz Koeppl

It is an interesting open problem to achieve adaptive prescribed-time control for strict-feedback systems with unknown and fast or even abrupt time-varying parameters. In this paper we present a solution with the aid of several design and…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-10-25 Hefu Ye , Yongduan Song

In this paper, we provide some general convergence results for adaptive designs for treatment comparison, both in the absence and presence of covariates. In particular, we demonstrate the almost sure convergence of the treatment allocation…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-06-01 Alessandro Baldi Antognini , Maroussa Zagoraiou

A variety of researchers have successfully obtained the parameters of low dimensional diffusion models using the data that comes out of atomistic simulations. This naturally raises a variety of questions about efficient estimation,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-11-06 Christopher P. Calderon
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