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Given the high volatility and susceptibility to extreme events in the cryptocurrency market, forecasting tail risk is of paramount importance. Value-at-Risk (VaR), a quantile-based risk measure, is widely used for assessing tail risk and is…
Most extreme events in real life can be faithfully modeled as random realizations from a Generalized Pareto distribution, which depends on two parameters: the scale and the shape. In many actual situations, one is mostly concerned with the…
An important question in health services research is the estimation of the proportion of medical expenditures that exceed a given threshold. Typically, medical expenditures present highly skewed, heavy tailed distributions, for which (a)…
Finite mixtures of regressions with fixed covariates are a commonly used model-based clustering methodology to deal with regression data. However, they assume assignment independence, i.e. the allocation of data points to the clusters is…
For a risk vector $V$, whose components are shared among agents by some random mechanism, we obtain asymptotic lower and upper bounds for the individual agents' exposure risk and the aggregated risk in the market. Risk is measured by…
The total correlation(TC) is a crucial index to measure the correlation between marginal distribution in multidimensional random variables, and it is frequently applied as an inductive bias in representation learning. Previous research has…
This article is devoted to the study of tail index estimation based on i.i.d. multivariate observations, drawn from a standard heavy-tailed distribution, i.e. of which 1-d Pareto-like marginals share the same tail index. A multivariate…
Graph models provide efficient tools to capture the underlying structure of data defined over networks. Many real-world network topologies are subject to change over time. Learning to model the dynamic interactions between entities in such…
Using a family of modified Weibull distributions, encompassing both sub-exponentials and super-exponentials, to parameterize the marginal distributions of asset returns and their natural multivariate generalizations, we give exact formulas…
This work aims to deal with the optimal allocation instability problem of Markowitz's modern portfolio theory in high dimensionality. We propose a combined strategy that considers covariance matrix estimators from Random Matrix Theory~(RMT)…
Financial organisations such as brokers face a significant challenge in servicing the investment needs of thousands of their traders worldwide. This task is further compounded since individual traders will have their own risk appetite and…
A scan statistic is examined for the purpose of testing the existence of a global peak in a random process with dependent variables of any distribution. The scan statistic tail probability is obtained based on the covariance of the moving…
In this paper, we study the Black-Litterman (BL) asset allocation model (Black and Litterman, 1990) under the hidden truncation skew-normal distribution (Arnold and Beaver, 2000). In particular, when returns are assumed to follow this skew…
Meta learning is a promising paradigm in the era of large models and task distributional robustness has become an indispensable consideration in real-world scenarios. Recent advances have examined the effectiveness of tail task risk…
We consider the tail probabilities of stock returns for a general class of stochastic volatility models. In these models, the stochastic differential equation for volatility is autonomous, time-homogeneous and dependent on only a finite…
The upper tail of a claim size distribution of a property line of business is frequently modelled by Pareto distribution. However, the upper tail does not need to be Pareto distributed, extraordinary shapes are possible. Here, the…
We introduce a new type of estimator for the spectral tail process of a regularly varying time series. The approach is based on a characterizing invariance property of the spectral tail process, which is incorporated into the new estimator…
Models based on multivariate t distributions are widely applied to analyze data with heavy tails. However, all the marginal distributions of the multivariate t distributions are restricted to have the same degrees of freedom, making these…
Traditional approaches to financial asset allocation start with returns forecasting followed by an optimization stage that decides the optimal asset weights. Any errors made during the forecasting step reduce the accuracy of the asset…
Suppose you are a fund manager with \$100 million to deploy and two years to invest it. A deal comes across your desk that looks appealing but costs \$50 million -- half of your available capital. Should you take it, or wait for something…