Related papers: Scaling Open-Ended Reasoning to Predict the Future

Skill routing is an important component in large-scale conversational systems. In contrast to traditional rule-based skill routing, state-of-the-art systems use a model-based approach to enable natural conversations. To provide supervision…

Recent advancements in Large Reasoning Models (LRMs), such as OpenAI's o1/o3 and DeepSeek-R1, have demonstrated remarkable performance in specialized reasoning tasks through human-like deliberative thinking and long chain-of-thought…

We study the continual pretraining recipe for scaling language models' context lengths to 128K, with a focus on data engineering. We hypothesize that long context modeling, in particular \textit{the ability to utilize information at…

Large language models excel on static benchmarks, but their ability as self-learning agents in dynamic environments remains unclear. We evaluate three prompting strategies: self-reflection, heuristic mutation, and planning across dynamic…

Large language models (LLMs) can internally distinguish between evaluation and deployment contexts, a behaviour known as \emph{evaluation awareness}. This undermines AI safety evaluations, as models may conceal dangerous capabilities during…

Open-ended evaluation is essential for deploying large language models in real-world settings. In studying HealthBench, we observe that using the model itself as a grader and generating rubric-based reward signals substantially improves…

Language models (LMs) trained on web-scale datasets are largely successful due to their ability to memorize large amounts of training data, even if only present in a few examples. These capabilities are often desirable in evaluation on…

We examine the reasoning and planning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) in solving complex tasks. Recent advances in inference-time techniques demonstrate the potential to enhance LLM reasoning without additional training by…

Large Language Models often achieve strong performance by generating long intermediate chain-of-thought reasoning. However, it remains unclear when a model's final answer is actually determined during generation. If the answer is already…

Forecasting tasks surrounding the dynamics of low-level human behavior are of significance to multiple research domains. In such settings, methods for explaining specific forecasts can enable domain experts to gain insights into the…

As Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly adopted as automated judges in benchmarking and reward modeling, ensuring their reliability, efficiency, and robustness has become critical. In this work, we present a systematic comparison…

In this work, we introduce Reinforcement Pre-Training (RPT) as a new scaling paradigm for large language models and reinforcement learning (RL). Specifically, we reframe next-token prediction as a reasoning task trained using RL, where it…

Modern LLMs are trained to "think" primarily via explicit text generation, such as chain-of-thought (CoT), which defers reasoning to post-training and under-leverages pre-training data. We present and open-source Ouro, named after the…

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have shown that test-time scaling can substantially improve model performance on complex tasks, particularly in the coding domain. Under this paradigm, models use a larger token budget during…

Prior work has largely treated forecasting as a static task, failing to consider how forecasts and the confidence in them should evolve as new evidence emerges. To address this gap, we introduce EvolveCast, a framework for evaluating…

The rapid advancements in large Language models (LLMs) have significantly enhanced their reasoning capabilities, driven by various strategies such as multi-agent collaboration. However, unlike the well-established performance improvements…

Reasoning-oriented language models typically expose explicit reasoning as a long, front-loaded chain of "thinking" tokens before the main output, either always enabled or externally toggled at inference time. Although this can help on…

Conversation forecasting tasks a model with predicting the outcome of an unfolding conversation. For instance, it can be applied in social media moderation to predict harmful user behaviors before they occur, allowing for preventative…

Current large language models can perform reasonably well on complex tasks that require step-by-step reasoning with few-shot learning. Are these models applying reasoning skills they have learnt during pre-training and reason outside of…

The black-box nature of neural models has motivated a line of research that aims to generate natural language rationales to explain why a model made certain predictions. Such rationale generation models, to date, have been trained on…