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Real-world deployment of machine learning models is challenging because data evolves over time. While no model can work when data evolves in an arbitrary fashion, if there is some pattern to these changes, we might be able to design methods…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-03 Rasool Fakoor , Jonas Mueller , Zachary C. Lipton , Pratik Chaudhari , Alexander J. Smola

We consider a generalization of the Ewens measure for the symmetric group, calculating moments of the characteristic polynomial and similar multiplicative statistics. In addition, we study the asymptotic behavior of linear statistics (such…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-03-14 Christopher Hughes , Joseph Najnudel , Ashkan Nikeghbali , Dirk Zeindler

The paper investigates a discrete time Binomial risk model with different types of polices and shock events may influence some of the claim sizes. It is shown that this model can be considered as a particular case of the classical compound…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-10-12 Pavlina K. Jordanova , Evelina Veleva

We show first that there are intrinsic relationships among different conditions, old and recent, which lead to some general statements in both the Stieltjes and the Hamburger moment problems. Then we describe checkable conditions and prove…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-11-13 Gwo Dong Lin , Jordan Stoyanov

A bound uniform over various loss-classes is given for data generated by stationary and phi-mixing processes, where the mixing time (the time needed to obtain approximate independence) enters the sample complexity only in an additive way.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-02 Andreas Maurer

Gaussian Process state-space models capture complex temporal dependencies in a principled manner by placing a Gaussian Process prior on the transition function. These models have a natural interpretation as discretized stochastic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-24 Krista Longi , Jakob Lindinger , Olaf Duennbier , Melih Kandemir , Arto Klami , Barbara Rakitsch

We present a relatively simple and mostly elementary proof of the L\'evy--Khintchine formula for subordinators. The main idea is to study the Poisson process time-changed by the subordinator. The technical tools used are conditional…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-03-30 Yuri Yakubovich

Based on the concept of self-decomposability, we extend some recent multivariate L\'evy models built using multivariate subordination with the aim of capturing situations in which a sudden event in one market is propagated onto related…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2020-07-31 Matteo Gardini , Piergiacomo Sabino , Emanuela Sasso

Modelling spatio-temporal processes has become an important issue in current research. Since Gaussian processes are essentially determined by their second order structure, broad classes of covariance functions are of interest. Here, a new…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-02-28 Martin Schlather

We perform enhanced Lie symmetry analysis of generalized fifth-order Korteweg-de Vries equations with time-dependent coefficients. The corresponding similarity reductions are classified and some exact solutions are constructed.

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2014-02-04 Oksana Kuriksha , Severin Pošta , Olena Vaneeva

High-dimensional data, where the dimension of the feature space is much larger than sample size, arise in a number of statistical applications. In this context, we construct the generalized multivariate sign transformation, defined as a…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-05 Subhabrata Majumdar , Snigdhansu Chatterjee

We study a class of multivariate tempered stable distributions and introduce the associated class of tempered stable Sato subordinators. These Sato subordinators are used to build additive inhomogeneous processes by subordination of a…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-09-03 Patrizia Semeraro

This work contributes to the theory and applications of Hawkes processes. We introduce and examine a new class of Hawkes processes that we call generalized Hawkes processes, and their special subclass -- the generalized multivariate Hawkes…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-04-30 Tomasz R. Bielecki , Jacek Jakubowski , Mariusz Nieweglowski

Multivariate dynamic time series models are widely encountered in practical studies, e.g., modelling policy transmission mechanism and measuring connectedness between economic agents. To better capture the dynamics, this paper proposes a…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-10-06 Yayi Yan , Jiti Gao , Bin Peng

We propose a multivariate framework for modeling dependent default times that extends the classical Cox process by incorporating both common and idiosyncratic shocks. Our construction uses c\`adl\`ag, increasing processes to model…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-08 Djibril Gueye , Alejandra Quintos

The seemingly disjoint problems of count and mixture modeling are united under the negative binomial (NB) process. A gamma process is employed to model the rate measure of a Poisson process, whose normalization provides a random probability…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-10-15 Mingyuan Zhou , Lawrence Carin

We introduce a class of continuous-time bivariate phase-type distributions for modeling dependencies from common shocks. The construction uses continuous-time Markov processes that evolve identically until an internal common-shock event,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-01 Martin Bladt , Oscar Peralta , Jorge Yslas

We introduce a new test for conditional independence which is based on what we call the weighted generalised covariance measure (WGCM). It is an extension of the recently introduced generalised covariance measure (GCM). To test the null…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-17 Cyrill Scheidegger , Julia Hörrmann , Peter Bühlmann

This paper presents a unifying theory of Linear second order systems that allows time-varying and time invariant systems to be treated in the same way for the first time. In the process, a transformation is given that diagonalizes an…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-04-24 Douglas R. Frey

We introduce a multistable subordinator, which generalizes the stable subordinator to the case of time-varying stability index. This enables us to define a multifractional Poisson process. We study properties of these processes and…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-09-05 Ilya Molchanov , Kostiantyn Ralchenko