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Predicting future events is an important activity with applications across multiple fields and domains. For example, the capacity to foresee stock market trends, natural disasters, business developments, or political events can facilitate…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-01-13 Petraq Nako , Adam Jatowt

The capabilities of large language models (LLMs) have raised concerns about their potential to create and propagate convincing narratives. Here, we study their performance in detecting convincing arguments to gain insights into LLMs'…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-07 Paula Rescala , Manoel Horta Ribeiro , Tiancheng Hu , Robert West

Large Language Models (LLMs) can produce surprisingly sophisticated estimates of their own uncertainty. However, it remains unclear to what extent this expressed confidence is tied to the reasoning, knowledge, or decision making of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-13 Jiawei Wang , Yanfei Zhou , Siddartha Devic , Deqing Fu

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in decision-making contexts, but when they present answers without signaling low confidence, users may unknowingly act on erroneous outputs. Prior work shows that LLMs maintain internal…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-23 Mark Steyvers , Catarina Belem , Padhraic Smyth

Large Language Models (LLMs) are effective at deceiving, when prompted to do so. But under what conditions do they deceive spontaneously? Models that demonstrate better performance on reasoning tasks are also better at prompted deception.…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-04-02 Samuel M. Taylor , Benjamin K. Bergen

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive capabilities in reasoning and prediction across different domains. Yet, their ability to infer temporal regularities from structured behavioral data remains underexplored. This paper…

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown capabilities close to human performance in various analytical tasks, leading researchers to use them for time and labor-intensive analyses. However, their capability to handle highly specialized and…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-08 Alexander S. Choi , Syeda Sabrina Akter , JP Singh , Antonios Anastasopoulos

State of the art large language models (LLMs) have shown impressive performance on a variety of benchmark tasks and are increasingly used as components in larger applications, where LLM-based predictions serve as proxies for human…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-06-14 Michael Franke , Polina Tsvilodub , Fausto Carcassi

Large language models (LLMs) have a wealth of knowledge that allows them to excel in various Natural Language Processing (NLP) tasks. Current research focuses on enhancing their performance within their existing knowledge. Despite their…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-05-31 Zhangyue Yin , Qiushi Sun , Qipeng Guo , Jiawen Wu , Xipeng Qiu , Xuanjing Huang

As artificial intelligence (AI) systems, particularly large language models (LLMs), become increasingly integrated into decision-making processes, the ability to trust their outputs is crucial. To earn human trust, LLMs must be well…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-14 Mark Steyvers , Heliodoro Tejeda , Aakriti Kumar , Catarina Belem , Sheer Karny , Xinyue Hu , Lukas Mayer , Padhraic Smyth

We investigate the predictability of large language model (LLM) capabilities: given records of past experiments using different model families, numbers of parameters, tasks, and numbers of in-context examples, can we accurately predict LLM…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-11-01 Qinyuan Ye , Harvey Yiyun Fu , Xiang Ren , Robin Jia

Large language models (LLMs) are commonly evaluated on tasks that test their knowledge or reasoning abilities. In this paper, we explore a different type of evaluation: whether an LLM can predict aspects of its own responses. Since LLMs…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-08-19 Elon Ezra , Ariel Weizman , Amos Azaria

The impressive linguistic abilities of large language models (LLMs) have recommended them as models of human sentence processing, with some conjecturing a positive 'quality-power' relationship (Wilcox et al., 2023), in which language…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-20 Yi-Chien Lin , Hongao Zhu , William Schuler

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across a wide range of tasks in various domains. Despite their impressive performance, they can be unreliable due to factual errors in their generations. Assessing their…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-03-26 Jiahui Geng , Fengyu Cai , Yuxia Wang , Heinz Koeppl , Preslav Nakov , Iryna Gurevych

Large language models (LLMs) could be valuable personal AI agents across various domains, provided they can precisely follow user instructions. However, recent studies have shown significant limitations in LLMs' instruction-following…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-03-31 Juyeon Heo , Miao Xiong , Christina Heinze-Deml , Jaya Narain

Large language models are increasingly used in decision-making tasks that require them to process information from a variety of sources, including both human experts and other algorithmic agents. How do LLMs weigh the information provided…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-02-26 Jessica Y. Bo , Lillio Mok , Ashton Anderson

Large language models (LLMs) are the result of a massive experiment in bottom-up, data-driven reverse engineering of language at scale. Despite their utility in a number of downstream NLP tasks, ample research has shown that LLMs are…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-08-05 Walid S. Saba

Large Language Models (LLMs) have acquired ubiquitous attention for their performances across diverse domains. Our study here searches through LLMs' cognitive abilities and confidence dynamics. We dive deep into understanding the alignment…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-09-29 Aniket Kumar Singh , Suman Devkota , Bishal Lamichhane , Uttam Dhakal , Chandra Dhakal

The rapid evolution of Large Language Models (LLMs) has markedly expanded their application across diverse domains, transforming how complex problems are approached and solved. Initially conceived to predict subsequent words in texts, these…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-07-11 Sumedh Rasal , E. J. Hauer

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive capabilities across a variety of tasks, but their increasing autonomy in real-world applications raises concerns about their trustworthiness. While hallucinations-unintentional…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-04 Haoran Huan , Mihir Prabhudesai , Mengning Wu , Shantanu Jaiswal , Deepak Pathak