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We consider the problem of Bayesian inference for changepoints where the number and position of the changepoints are both unknown. In particular, we consider product partition models where it is possible to integrate out model parameters…

Computation · Statistics 2017-03-14 Alan Benson , Nial Friel

We propose a multilevel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for the Bayesian inference of random field parameters in PDEs using high-resolution data. Compared to existing multilevel MCMC methods, we additionally consider level-dependent…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-08-19 Pieter Vanmechelen , Geert Lombaert , Giovanni Samaey

The Brown-Resnick max-stable process has proven to be well-suited for modeling extremes of complex environmental processes, but in many applications its likelihood function is intractable and inference must be based on a composite…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-01-16 Emeric Thibaud , Juha Aalto , Daniel S. Cooley , Anthony C. Davison , Juha Heikkinen

Uncertainty of decisions in safety-critical engineering applications can be estimated on the basis of the Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique of averaging over decision models. The use of decision tree (DT) models assists…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2010-12-03 Vitaly Schetinin , Jonathan Fieldsend , Derek Partridge , Wojtek Krzanowski , Richard Everson , Trevor Bailey , Adolfo Hernandez

In this article we consider static Bayesian parameter estimation for partially observed diffusions that are discretely observed. We work under the assumption that one must resort to discretizing the underlying diffusion process, for…

Computation · Statistics 2017-01-23 Ajay Jasra , Kengo Kamatani , Kody J. H. Law , Yan Zhou

In this paper we consider the parameter estimation problem associated to partially-observed time changed SDEs, with observations that are given at discrete times. In particular we consider both likelihood and Bayesian estimation. We develop…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-05-12 Ke Zhao , Ajay Jasra

There is increasing interest to develop Bayesian inferential algorithms for point process models with intractable likelihoods. A purpose of this paper is to illustrate the utility of using simulation based strategies, including Approximate…

Computation · Statistics 2026-02-02 Chaoyi Lu , Nial Friel

To conduct Bayesian inference with large data sets, it is often convenient or necessary to distribute the data across multiple machines. We consider a likelihood function expressed as a product of terms, each associated with a subset of the…

Computation · Statistics 2020-04-09 Lewis J. Rendell , Adam M. Johansen , Anthony Lee , Nick Whiteley

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric approach to the problem of jointly modeling multiple related time series. Our model discovers a latent set of dynamical behaviors shared among the sequences, and segments each time series into regions…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-11-14 Emily B. Fox , Michael C. Hughes , Erik B. Sudderth , Michael I. Jordan

This paper presents a simulation-based framework for sequential inference from partially and discretely observed point process (PP's) models with static parameters. Taking on a Bayesian perspective for the static parameters, we build upon…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-01-24 James S. Martin , Ajay Jasra , Emma McCoy

We consider finite-horizon Markov Decision Processes where parameters, such as transition probabilities, are unknown and estimated from data. The popular distributionally robust approach to addressing the parameter uncertainty can sometimes…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-10-07 Yifan Lin , Yuxuan Ren , Enlu Zhou

This paper introduces a framework for speeding up Bayesian inference conducted in presence of large datasets. We design a Markov chain whose transition kernel uses an (unknown) fraction of (fixed size) of the available data that is randomly…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-01 Florian Maire , Nial Friel , Pierre Alquier

Extreme environmental events frequently exhibit spatial and temporal dependence. These data are often modeled using max stable processes (MSPs). MSPs are computationally prohibitive to fit for as few as a dozen observations, with supposed…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-02 Emily C. Hector , Brian J. Reich

Bayesian models of behavior have provided computational level explanations in a range of psychophysical tasks. One fundamental experimental paradigm is the production or reproduction task, in which subjects are instructed to generate an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-03 Nils Neupärtl , Constantin A. Rothkopf

Gaussian processes are a natural way of defining prior distributions over functions of one or more input variables. In a simple nonparametric regression problem, where such a function gives the mean of a Gaussian distribution for an…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2008-02-03 Radford M. Neal

Prominent features of simulated moving bed (SMB) chromatography processes in the downstream processing is based on the determination of operating conditions. However, effects of different types of uncertainties have to be studied and…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2021-07-16 Qiao-Le He , Liming Zhao

This paper proposes a new approach for Bayesian and maximum likelihood parameter estimation for stationary Gaussian processes observed on a large lattice with missing values. We propose an MCMC approach for Bayesian inference, and a Monte…

Computation · Statistics 2014-02-19 Jonathan R. Stroud , Michael L. Stein , Shaun Lysen

Modelling random dynamical systems in continuous time, diffusion processes are a powerful tool in many areas of science. Model parameters can be estimated from time-discretely observed processes using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods…

Computation · Statistics 2020-10-12 Susanne Pieschner , Christiane Fuchs

The Markov Decision Process (MDP) is a popular framework for sequential decision-making problems, and uncertainty quantification is an essential component of it to learn optimal decision-making strategies. In particular, a Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-06 Jiaqi Guo , Chon Wai Ho , Sumeetpal S. Singh

Bayesian analysis for Markov jump processes is a non-trivial and challenging problem. Although exact inference is theoretically possible, it is computationally demanding thus its applicability is limited to a small class of problems. In…

Computation · Statistics 2017-02-08 Vassilios Stathopoulos , Mark A. Girolami