Related papers: A Test of Lookahead Bias in LLM Forecasts

Large language models (LLMs) are a type of machine learning tool that economists have started to apply in their empirical research. One such application is macroeconomic forecasting with backtesting of LLMs, even though they are trained on…

The recent performance leap of Large Language Models (LLMs) opens up new opportunities across numerous industrial applications and domains. However, erroneous generations, such as false predictions, misinformation, and hallucination made by…

We introduce Look-Ahead-Bench, a standardized benchmark measuring look-ahead bias in Point-in-Time (PiT) Large Language Models (LLMs) within realistic and practical financial workflows. Unlike most existing approaches that primarily test…

Applying LLMs to predictive tasks in finance is challenging due to look-ahead bias resulting from their training on long time-series data. This precludes the backtests typically employed in finance since retraining frontier models from…

Large language models (LLMs), including ChatGPT, can extract profitable trading signals from the sentiment in news text. However, backtesting such strategies poses a challenge because LLMs are trained on many years of data, and backtesting…

Large Language Models (LLMs) are widely used to evaluate natural language generation tasks as automated metrics. However, the likelihood, a measure of LLM's plausibility for a sentence, can vary due to superficial differences in sentences,…

Emerging techniques in computer science make it possible to "brain scan" large language models (LLMs), identify the plain-English concepts that guide their reasoning, and steer them while holding other factors constant. We show that this…

Monitoring forecasting systems is critical for customer satisfaction, profitability, and operational efficiency in large-scale retail businesses. We propose The Forecast Critic, a system that leverages Large Language Models (LLMs) for…

Predicting future events is an important activity with applications across multiple fields and domains. For example, the capacity to foresee stock market trends, natural disasters, business developments, or political events can facilitate…

In the constantly changing field of data-driven decision making, accurately predicting future events is crucial for strategic planning in various sectors. The emergence of Large Language Models (LLMs) marks a significant advancement in this…

Large Language Models (LLMs) are machine learning models that have seen widespread adoption due to their capability of handling previously difficult tasks. LLMs, due to their training, are sensitive to how exactly a question is presented,…

Fine-tuning enables large language models (LLMs) to adapt to specific domains, but often compromises their previously established safety alignment. To mitigate the degradation of model safety during fine-tuning, we introduce LookAhead…

Recent work has investigated the capabilities of large language models (LLMs) as zero-shot models for generating individual-level characteristics (e.g., to serve as risk models or augment survey datasets). However, when should a user have…

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used to predict human behavior. We propose a measure for evaluating how much knowledge a pretrained LLM brings to such a prediction: its equivalent sample size, defined as the amount of…

Large language models are increasingly used in social sciences, but their training data can introduce lookahead bias and training leakage. A good chronologically consistent language model requires efficient use of training data to maintain…

Large Language Models (LLMs) have made substantial progress in the past several months, shattering state-of-the-art benchmarks in many domains. This paper investigates LLMs' behavior with respect to gender stereotypes, a known issue for…

Artificial intelligence is reshaping labor markets, yet we lack tools to systematically forecast its effects on employment. This paper introduces a benchmark for evaluating how well large language models (LLMs) can anticipate changes in job…

Large language models (LLMs) have shown remarkable adaptability to diverse tasks, by leveraging context prompts containing instructions, or minimal input-output examples. However, recent work revealed they also exhibit label bias -- an…

As Large Language Models (LLMs) become increasingly embedded in empirical research workflows, their use as analytical tools for quantitative or qualitative data raises pressing concerns for scientific integrity. This opinion paper draws a…

Forecasting future events is important for policy and decision making. In this work, we study whether language models (LMs) can forecast at the level of competitive human forecasters. Towards this goal, we develop a retrieval-augmented LM…