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Evidential deep learning, built upon belief theory and subjective logic, offers a principled and computationally efficient way to turn a deterministic neural network uncertainty-aware. The resultant evidential models can quantify…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-27 Deep Pandey , Qi Yu

Reliable uncertainty estimation has become a crucial requirement for the industrial deployment of deep learning algorithms, particularly in high-risk applications such as autonomous driving and medical diagnosis. However, mainstream…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-10 Junyu Gao , Mengyuan Chen , Liangyu Xiang , Changsheng Xu

Evidential Deep Learning (EDL) has emerged as an efficient, sampling-free strategy for uncertainty estimation. A series of EDL variants have been proposed to address specific limitations of the original framework, achieving notable success.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Yuanye Liu , Yibo Gao , Yuanyang Chen , Xiahai Zhuang

This work reveals an evidential signal that emerges from the uncertainty value in Evidential Deep Learning (EDL). EDL is one example of a class of uncertainty-aware deep learning approaches designed to provide confidence (or epistemic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-20 Cai Davies , Marc Roig Vilamala , Alun D. Preece , Federico Cerutti , Lance M. Kaplan , Supriyo Chakraborty

Evidential Deep Learning (EDL) is an emerging method for uncertainty estimation that provides reliable predictive uncertainty in a single forward pass, attracting significant attention. Grounded in subjective logic, EDL derives Dirichlet…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-02 Mengyuan Chen , Junyu Gao , Changsheng Xu

Fine-tuned large language models (LLMs) often exhibit overconfidence, particularly when trained on small datasets, resulting in poor calibration and inaccurate uncertainty estimates. Evidential Deep Learning (EDL), an uncertainty-aware…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-12 Yawei Li , David Rügamer , Bernd Bischl , Mina Rezaei

This paper questions the effectiveness of a modern predictive uncertainty quantification approach, called \emph{evidential deep learning} (EDL), in which a single neural network model is trained to learn a meta distribution over the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-04 Maohao Shen , J. Jon Ryu , Soumya Ghosh , Yuheng Bu , Prasanna Sattigeri , Subhro Das , Gregory W. Wornell

Evidential deep learning (EDL) has shown remarkable success in uncertainty estimation. However, there is still room for improvement, particularly in out-of-distribution (OOD) detection and classification tasks. The limited OOD detection…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-15 Taeseong Yoon , Heeyoung Kim

While Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) achieve remarkable performance, their tendency to produce overconfident predictions. Evidential Deep Learning (EDL) mitigates this by formulating predictions as a Dirichlet distribution over class…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-27 Jiawei Tang , Xinyan Du , Hui Liu , Junhui Hou , Yuheng Jia

Evidential Deep Learning (EDL) is a popular framework for uncertainty-aware classification that models predictive uncertainty via Dirichlet distributions parameterized by neural networks. Despite its popularity, its theoretical foundations…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-03 Pietro Carlotti , Nevena Gligić , Arya Farahi

The Evidential Regression Network (ERN) represents a novel approach that integrates deep learning with Dempster-Shafer's theory to predict a target and quantify the associated uncertainty. Guided by the underlying theory, specific…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-04 Kai Ye , Tiejin Chen , Hua Wei , Liang Zhan

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods play an important role in reducing errors in weather forecasting. Conventional approaches in UQ for weather forecasting rely on generating an ensemble of forecasts from physics-based simulations to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-19 Ayush Khot , Xihaier Luo , Ai Kagawa , Shinjae Yoo

Most named entity recognition (NER) systems focus on improving model performance, ignoring the need to quantify model uncertainty, which is critical to the reliability of NER systems in open environments. Evidential deep learning (EDL) has…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-05-30 Zhen Zhang , Mengting Hu , Shiwan Zhao , Minlie Huang , Haotian Wang , Lemao Liu , Zhirui Zhang , Zhe Liu , Bingzhe Wu

Pretrained models have become standard in both vision and language, yet they typically do not provide reliable measures of confidence. Existing uncertainty estimation methods, such as deep ensembles and MC dropout, are often too…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-13 Yongchan Chun , Chanhee Park , Jeongho Yoon , Jaehyung Seo , Heuiseok Lim

Despite recent advances in the accuracy of brain tumor segmentation, the results still suffer from low reliability and robustness. Uncertainty estimation is an efficient solution to this problem, as it provides a measure of confidence in…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-08-15 Hao Li , Yang Nan , Javier Del Ser , Guang Yang

Real-world sensor-based learning systems require uncertainty estimation that is both reliable and computationally efficient. Evidential Deep Learning (EDL) provides single-pass uncertainty estimation by modeling the class probabilities via…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-22 Berk Hayta , Hannah Laus , Simon Mittermaier , Felix Krahmer

Reliability of deep learning models is critical for deployment in high-stakes applications, where out-of-distribution or adversarial inputs may lead to detrimental outcomes. Evidential Deep Learning, an efficient paradigm for uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-05 Charmaine Barker , Daniel Bethell , Simos Gerasimou

Autonomous and semi-autonomous systems are using deep learning models to improve decision-making. However, deep classifiers can be overly confident in their incorrect predictions, a major issue especially in safety-critical domains. The…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-05 Murat Sensoy , Lance M. Kaplan , Simon Julier , Maryam Saleki , Federico Cerutti

Semi-supervised classification based on active learning has made significant progress, but the existing methods often ignore the uncertainty estimation (or reliability) of the prediction results during the learning process, which makes it…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-28 Shenkai Zhao , Xinao Zhang , Lipeng Pan , Xiaobin Xu , Danilo Pelusi

Traditional deep neural nets (NNs) have shown the state-of-the-art performance in the task of classification in various applications. However, NNs have not considered any types of uncertainty associated with the class probabilities to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-16 Xujiang Zhao , Yuzhe Ou , Lance Kaplan , Feng Chen , Jin-Hee Cho
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