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The standard approach to inference from cosmic large-scale structure data employs summary statistics that are compared to analytic models in a Gaussian likelihood with pre-computed covariance. To overcome the idealising assumptions about…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2023-08-24 Kiyam Lin , Maximilian von Wietersheim-Kramsta , Benjamin Joachimi , Stephen Feeney

Some of the issues that make sampling parameter spaces of various beyond the Standard Model (BSM) scenarios computationally expensive are the high dimensionality of the input parameter space, complex likelihoods, and stringent experimental…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2026-02-16 Atrideb Chatterjee , Arghya Choudhury , Sourav Mitra , Arpita Mondal , Subhadeep Mondal

Simulation based inference (SBI) methods enable the estimation of posterior distributions when the likelihood function is intractable, but where model simulation is feasible. Popular neural approaches to SBI are the neural posterior…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-04-23 Xiaoyu Wang , Ryan P. Kelly , David J. Warne , Christopher Drovandi

Scientists and engineers employ stochastic numerical simulators to model empirically observed phenomena. In contrast to purely statistical models, simulators express scientific principles that provide powerful inductive biases, improve…

Aided by advances in neural density estimation, considerable progress has been made in recent years towards a suite of simulation-based inference (SBI) methods capable of performing flexible, black-box, approximate Bayesian inference for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-09-07 Patrick Cannon , Daniel Ward , Sebastian M. Schmon

Upcoming astronomical surveys will observe billions of galaxies across cosmic time, providing a unique opportunity to map the many pathways of galaxy assembly to an incredibly high resolution. However, the huge amount of data also poses an…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2022-11-08 Bingjie Wang , Joel Leja , Ashley Villar , Joshua S. Speagle

The growing availability of large and complex datasets has increased interest in temporal stochastic processes that can capture stylized facts such as marginal skewness, non-Gaussian tails, long memory, and even non-Markovian dynamics.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-09 Dan Leonte , Raphaël Huser , Almut E. D. Veraart

Simulation-based Bayesian inference (SBI) can be used to estimate the parameters of complex mechanistic models given observed model outputs without requiring access to explicit likelihood evaluations. A prime example for the application of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-28 Jonas Beck , Michael Deistler , Yves Bernaerts , Jakob Macke , Philipp Berens

We present Sequential Neural Variational Inference (SNVI), an approach to perform Bayesian inference in models with intractable likelihoods. SNVI combines likelihood-estimation (or likelihood-ratio-estimation) with variational inference to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-20 Manuel Glöckler , Michael Deistler , Jakob H. Macke

Bayesian inference allows expressing the uncertainty of posterior belief under a probabilistic model given prior information and the likelihood of the evidence. Predominantly, the likelihood function is only implicitly established by a…

This paper presents a novel framework for full-waveform seismic source inversion using simulation-based inference (SBI). Traditional probabilistic approaches often rely on simplifying assumptions about data errors, which we show can lead to…

Geophysics · Physics 2025-05-15 A. A. Saoulis , D. Piras , A. Spurio Mancini , B. Joachimi , A. M. G. Ferreira

Optimizing high-dimensional and complex black-box functions is crucial in numerous scientific applications. While Bayesian optimization (BO) is a powerful method for sample-efficient optimization, it struggles with the curse of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-08 Taeyoung Yun , Kiyoung Om , Jaewoo Lee , Sujin Yun , Jinkyoo Park

Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) offers a principled and flexible framework for conducting Bayesian inference in any situation where forward simulations are feasible. However, validating the accuracy and reliability of the inferred…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2026-01-21 James Alvey , Carlo R. Contaldi , Mauro Pieroni

Model parameter inference is a universal problem across science. This challenge is particularly pronounced in developmental biology, where faithful mechanistic descriptions require spatial-stochastic models with numerous parameters, yet…

Biological Physics · Physics 2024-07-16 Michael A. Ramirez-Sierra , Thomas R. Sokolowski

Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) deals with statistical inference in problems where the data are generated from a system that is described by a complex stochastic simulator. The challenge for inference in these problems is that the…

Computation · Statistics 2025-04-17 David Refaeli , Mira Marcus-Kalish , David M. Steinberg

Simulation-based inference (SBI) is constantly in search of more expressive and efficient algorithms to accurately infer the parameters of complex simulation models. In line with this goal, we present consistency models for posterior…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-05 Marvin Schmitt , Valentin Pratz , Ullrich Köthe , Paul-Christian Bürkner , Stefan T Radev

Simulation-based inference (SBI) is the preferred framework for estimating parameters of intractable models in science and engineering. A significant challenge in this context is the large computational cost of simulating data from complex…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-18 Ayush Bharti , Daolang Huang , Samuel Kaski , François-Xavier Briol

We demonstrate the successful use of scattering representations without further compression for simulation-based inference (SBI) with images (i.e. field-level), illustrated with a cosmological case study. Scattering representations provide…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-03 Kiyam Lin , Benjamin Joachimi , Jason D. McEwen

Building on the recent trend of new deep generative models known as Normalizing Flows (NF), simulation-based inference (SBI) algorithms can now efficiently accommodate arbitrary complex and high-dimensional data distributions. The…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-28 Julia Linhart , Alexandre Gramfort , Pedro L. C. Rodrigues

Single-molecule experiments are a unique tool to characterize the structural dynamics of biomolecules. However, reconstructing molecular details from noisy single-molecule data is challenging. Simulation-based inference (SBI) integrates…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2024-10-22 Lars Dingeldein , Pilar Cossio , Roberto Covino