Related papers: Conformal Prediction Sets for Next-Token Predictio…

The effectiveness of large language models (LLMs) is not only measured by their ability to generate accurate outputs but also by their calibration-how well their confidence scores reflect the probability of their outputs being correct.…

Training large language models (LLMs) from scratch can yield models with unique functionalities and strengths, but it is costly and often leads to redundant capabilities. A more cost-effective alternative is to fuse existing pre-trained…

Since the inception of Large Language Models (LLMs), the quest to efficiently train them for superior reasoning capabilities has been a pivotal challenge. The dominant training paradigm for LLMs is based on next token prediction (NTP).…

Credal sets are sets of probability distributions that are considered as candidates for an imprecisely known ground-truth distribution. In machine learning, they have recently attracted attention as an appealing formalism for uncertainty…

When building either prediction intervals for regression (with real-valued response) or prediction sets for classification (with categorical responses), uncertainty quantification is essential to studying complex machine learning methods.…

Conventional frequentist learning is known to yield poorly calibrated models that fail to reliably quantify the uncertainty of their decisions. Bayesian learning can improve calibration, but formal guarantees apply only under restrictive…

Large language models such as GPT and Llama are trained with a next-token prediction loss. In this work, we suggest that training language models to predict multiple future tokens at once results in higher sample efficiency. More…

Conformal prediction offers a distribution-free framework for constructing prediction sets with coverage guarantees. In practice, multiple valid conformal prediction sets may be available, arising from different models or methodologies.…

As large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in risk-sensitive applications such as real-world open-ended question answering (QA), ensuring the trustworthiness of their outputs has become critical. Existing selective conformal…

Large language models are trained with tokenizers, and the resulting token distribution is highly imbalanced: a few words dominate the stream while most occur rarely. Recent practice favors ever-larger vocabularies, but it is unclear where…

Language prediction is constrained by informational entropy intrinsic to language, such that there exists a limit to how accurate any language model can become and equivalently a lower bound to language compression. The most efficient…

Language model (LM) decoding is based on the next-token prediction (NTP) probability distribution. For neural LMs (e.g., Transformer-based), NTP distribution is essentially a softmax-regularized dot product between an encoded input context…

The expense of acquiring labels in large-scale statistical machine learning makes partially and weakly-labeled data attractive, though it is not always apparent how to leverage such data for model fitting or validation. We present a…

Conformal prediction (CP) converts any model's output to prediction sets with a guarantee to cover the true label with (adjustable) high probability. Robust CP extends this guarantee to worst-case (adversarial) inputs. Existing baselines…

Conformal prediction constructs a set of labels instead of a single point prediction, while providing a probabilistic coverage guarantee. Beyond the coverage guarantee, adaptiveness to example difficulty is an important property. It means…

Large Language Models (LLMs) often lack meaningful confidence estimates for their outputs. While base LLMs are known to exhibit next-token calibration, it remains unclear whether they can assess confidence in the actual meaning of their…

This study explores the explainability capabilities of large language models (LLMs), when employed to autonomously generate machine learning (ML) solutions. We examine two classification tasks: (i) a binary classification problem focused on…

Recent breakthroughs in NLP research, such as the advent of Transformer models have indisputably contributed to major advancements in several tasks. However, few works research robustness and explainability issues of their evaluation…

Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently emerged as planners for language-instructed agents, generating sequences of actions to accomplish natural language tasks. However, their reliability remains a challenge, especially in long-horizon…

Large language models (LLMs) are widely deployed as general-purpose problem solvers, making accurate confidence estimation critical for reliable use. Prior work on LLM calibration largely focuses on response-level confidence, which…