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Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities, yet their scalability raises a critical question: Have we reached the scaling ceiling? This paper addresses this pivotal question by developing a unified theoretical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-24 Charles Luo

Large language models with a huge number of parameters, when trained on near internet-sized number of tokens, have been empirically shown to obey neural scaling laws: specifically, their performance behaves predictably as a power law in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-01 Alexander Maloney , Daniel A. Roberts , James Sully

Deep learning has recently revealed the existence of scaling laws, demonstrating that model performance follows predictable trends based on dataset and model sizes. Inspired by these findings and fascinating phenomena emerging in the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-10 Mattia Rosso , Simone Rossi , Giulio Franzese , Markus Heinonen , Maurizio Filippone

Deep neural networks exhibit empirical neural scaling laws, with error decreasing as a power law with increasing model or data size, across a wide variety of architectures, tasks, and datasets. This universality suggests that scaling laws…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-12 Ari Brill

Scaling laws have emerged as a unifying lens for understanding and guiding the training of large language models (LLMs). However, existing studies predominantly focus on the final-step loss, leaving open whether the entire loss dynamics…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-17 Binghui Li , Fengling Chen , Zixun Huang , Lean Wang , Lei Wu

We study empirical scaling laws for transfer learning between distributions in an unsupervised, fine-tuning setting. When we train increasingly large neural networks from-scratch on a fixed-size dataset, they eventually become data-limited…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-03 Danny Hernandez , Jared Kaplan , Tom Henighan , Sam McCandlish

Understanding how language model performance varies with scale is critical to benchmark and algorithm development. Scaling laws are one approach to building this understanding, but the requirement of training models across many different…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-03 Yangjun Ruan , Chris J. Maddison , Tatsunori Hashimoto

We identify empirical scaling laws for the cross-entropy loss in four domains: generative image modeling, video modeling, multimodal image$\leftrightarrow$text models, and mathematical problem solving. In all cases autoregressive…

Model merging efficiently aggregates capabilities from multiple fine-tuned models into a single one, operating purely in parameter space without original data or expensive re-computation. Despite empirical successes, a unified theory for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-20 Qinglun Li , Anke Tang , Miao Zhang , Mengzhu Wang , Quanjun Yin , Li Shen

Scaling law principles indicate a power-law correlation between loss and variables such as model size, dataset size, and computational resources utilized during training. These principles play a vital role in optimizing various aspects of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-08 Hui Su , Zhi Tian , Xiaoyu Shen , Xunliang Cai

Reasoning is an integral part of many tasks performed by language models (LMs). However, the effects of scaling model sizes and data on reasoning abilities at pretraining time remain understudied. To rigorously investigate this problem, we…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-09-30 Xinyi Wang , Shawn Tan , Shenbo Xu , Mingyu Jin , William Yang Wang , Rameswar Panda , Yikang Shen

Scaling laws play a central role in the success of Large Language Models (LLMs), enabling the prediction of model performance relative to compute budgets prior to training. While Transformers have been the dominant architecture, recent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-23 Maximilian Beck , Kajetan Schweighofer , Sebastian Böck , Sebastian Lehner , Sepp Hochreiter

There is a recent trend in machine learning to increase model quality by growing models to sizes previously thought to be unreasonable. Recent work has shown that autoregressive generative models with cross-entropy objective functions…

Audio and Speech Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-06-18 Jasha Droppo , Oguz Elibol

The scaling law is becoming a fundamental law in many machine learning areas. That is, test error falls off with the power law when increasing training data, model size, and computing resource. However, whether this law is suitable for the…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2024-02-21 Jiayi Lin , Hande Dong , Yutao Xie , Lei Zhang

As we scale to more massive machine learning models, the frequent synchronization demands inherent in data-parallel approaches create significant slowdowns, posing a critical challenge to further scaling. Recent work develops an approach…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-14 Zachary Charles , Gabriel Teston , Lucio Dery , Keith Rush , Nova Fallen , Zachary Garrett , Arthur Szlam , Arthur Douillard

Modern LLM pre-training consumes vast amounts of compute and training data, making the scaling behavior, or scaling laws, of different models a key distinguishing factor. Discrete diffusion language models (DLMs) have been proposed as an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-17 Dimitri von Rütte , Janis Fluri , Omead Pooladzandi , Bernhard Schölkopf , Thomas Hofmann , Antonio Orvieto

When data is plentiful, the loss achieved by well-trained neural networks scales as a power-law $L \propto N^{-\alpha}$ in the number of network parameters $N$. This empirical scaling law holds for a wide variety of data modalities, and may…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-04-24 Utkarsh Sharma , Jared Kaplan

This work studies the general principles of improving the learning of language models (LMs), which aims at reducing the necessary training steps for achieving superior performance. Specifically, we present a theory for the optimal learning…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-03-05 Yuxian Gu , Li Dong , Yaru Hao , Qingxiu Dong , Minlie Huang , Furu Wei

Large language models (LLMs) achieve strong performance across diverse tasks, largely driven by high-quality web data used in pre-training. However, recent studies indicate this data source is rapidly depleting. Synthetic data emerges as a…

Training large language models (LLMs) is computationally expensive, partly because the loss exhibits slow power-law convergence whose origin remains debatable. Through systematic analysis of toy models and empirical evaluation of LLMs, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-04 Yizhou Liu , Ziming Liu , Cengiz Pehlevan , Jeff Gore