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Experimental designs that are minimax in the presence of model misspecifications have been constructed so as to minimize the maximum, over classes of alternate response models, of the integrated mean squared error of the predicted values.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-27 Rui Hu , Douglas P. Wiens

This work studies an experimental design problem where {the values of a predictor variable, denoted by $x$}, are to be determined with the goal of estimating a function $m(x)$, which is observed with noise. A linear model is fitted to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-05-03 David Azriel

We consider minimax-optimal designs for the prediction of individual parameters in random coefficient regression models. We focus on the minimax-criterion, which minimizes the "worst case" for the basic criterion with respect to the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-11-09 Maryna Prus

In experimental design, we are given a large collection of vectors, each with a hidden response value that we assume derives from an underlying linear model, and we wish to pick a small subset of the vectors such that querying the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-02-05 Michał Dereziński , Kenneth L. Clarkson , Michael W. Mahoney , Manfred K. Warmuth

Biased stochastic estimators, such as finite-differences for noisy gradient estimation, often contain parameters that need to be properly chosen to balance impacts from the bias and the variance. While the optimal order of these parameters…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-14 Henry Lam , Xinyu Zhang , Xuhui Zhang

In this article, we investigate the robust optimal design problem for the prediction of response when the fitted regression models are only approximately specified, and observations might be missing completely at random. The intuitive idea…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-19 Rui Hu , Ion Bica , Zhichun Zhai

Unbiased and consistent variance estimators generally do not exist for design-based treatment effect estimators because experimenters never observe more than one potential outcome for any unit. The problem is exacerbated by interference and…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-04 Christopher Harshaw , Joel A. Middleton , Fredrik Sävje

Empirical research typically involves a robustness-efficiency tradeoff. A researcher seeking to estimate a scalar parameter can invoke strong assumptions to motivate a restricted estimator that is precise but may be heavily biased, or they…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-09-17 Timothy B. Armstrong , Patrick Kline , Liyang Sun

Missing values arise in most real-world data sets due to the aggregation of multiple sources and intrinsically missing information (sensor failure, unanswered questions in surveys...). In fact, the very nature of missing values usually…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-02-04 Alexis Ayme , Claire Boyer , Aymeric Dieuleveut , Erwan Scornet

We use decision theory to confront uncertainty that is sufficiently broad to incorporate "models as approximations." We presume the existence of a featured collection of what we call "structured models" that have explicit substantive…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2022-08-22 Simone Cerreia-Vioglio , Lars Peter Hansen , Fabio Maccheroni , Massimo Marinacci

In multi-response regression models, the error covariance matrix is never known in practice. Thus, there is a need for optimal designs which are robust against possible misspecification of the error covariance matrix. In this paper, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-10-03 Lucy L. Gao , Julie Zhou

In this correspondence, we introduce a minimax regret criteria to the least squares problems with bounded data uncertainties and solve it using semi-definite programming. We investigate a robust minimax least squares approach that minimizes…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2012-03-20 Nargiz Kalantarova , Mehmet A. Donmez , Suleyman S. Kozat

Many existing methods for constructing optimal split-plot designs, such as D-optimal designs, only focus on minimizing the variances and covariances of the estimation for the fitted model. However, the underlying true model is usually…

Computation · Statistics 2016-08-02 Chang-Yun Lin

Minimax lower bounds are pessimistic in nature: for any given estimator, minimax lower bounds yield the existence of a worst-case target vector $\beta^*_{worst}$ for which the prediction error of the given estimator is bounded from below.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-10-10 Pierre C Bellec

We develop a finite-sample optimal estimator for regression discontinuity design when the outcomes are bounded, including binary outcomes as the leading case. Our estimator achieves minimax mean squared error among linear shrinkage…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-29 Takuya Ishihara , Masayuki Sawada , Kohei Yata

It is common to use minimax rules to make decisions for planning when there is great uncertainty on what will happen in the future. Minimax regret is one popular version of this. We give an analysis of the behaviour of minimax rules in the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-03-04 Edward Anderson , Stan Zachary

We study the optimal design problem under second-order least squares estimation which is known to outperform ordinary least squares estimation when the error distribution is asymmetric. First, a general approximate theory is developed,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-05-14 Mausumi Bose , Rahul Mukerjee

It is a common phenomenon that for high-dimensional and nonparametric statistical models, rate-optimal estimators balance squared bias and variance. Although this balancing is widely observed, little is known whether methods exist that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-03-21 Alexis Derumigny , Johannes Schmidt-Hieber

In this paper we deal with the regression problem in a random design setting. We investigate asymptotic optimality under minimax point of view of various Bayesian rules based on warped wavelets and show that they nearly attain optimal…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-08-21 Thanh Mai Pham Ngoc

We develop an approach for estimating models described via conditional moment restrictions, with a prototypical application being non-parametric instrumental variable regression. We introduce a min-max criterion function, under which the…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-06-15 Nishanth Dikkala , Greg Lewis , Lester Mackey , Vasilis Syrgkanis
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