Related papers: Closed-form empirical Bernstein confidence sequenc…
We consider the problem of reconstructing time sequences of spatially sparse signals (with unknown and time-varying sparsity patterns) from a limited number of linear "incoherent" measurements, in real-time. The signals are sparse in some…
One problem of wide interest involves estimating expected crossing-times. Several tools have been developed to solve this problem beginning with the works of Wald and the theory of sequential analysis. An extension of his approach is…
We consider the problem of learning the causal MAG of a system from observational data in the presence of latent variables and selection bias. Constraint-based methods are one of the main approaches for solving this problem, but the…
We study the stochastic convergence of the Ces\`{a}ro mean of a sequence of random variables. These arise naturally in statistical problems that have a sequential component, where the sequence of random variables is typically derived from a…
This paper investigates the size performance of Wald tests for CAViaR models (Engle and Manganelli, 2004). We find that the usual estimation strategy on test statistics yields inaccuracies. Indeed, we show that existing density estimation…
The concept of time-coarsened density matrix for open systems has frequently featured in equilibrium and non-equilibrium statistical mechanics, without being probed as to the detailed consequences of the time averaging procedure. In this…
Gaussian approximations are routinely employed in Bayesian statistics to ease inference when the target posterior is intractable. Although these approximations are asymptotically justified by Bernstein-von Mises type results, in practice…
Transient dynamics are of large interest in many areas of science. Here, a generalization of basin stability (BS) is presented: constrained basin stability (CBS) that is sensitive to various different types of transients arising from finite…
Despite the success of deep neural network (DNN) on sequential data (i.e., scene text and speech) recognition, it suffers from the over-confidence problem mainly due to overfitting in training with the cross-entropy loss, which may make the…
Penalized likelihood and quasi-likelihood methods dominate inference in high-dimensional linear mixed-effects models. Sampling-based Bayesian inference is less explored due to the computational bottlenecks introduced by the random effects…
This paper revisits a fundamental problem in statistical inference from a non-asymptotic theoretical viewpoint $\unicode{x2013}$ the construction of confidence sets. We establish a finite-sample bound for the estimator, characterizing its…
This paper introduces Conformal Thresholded Intervals (CTI), a novel conformal regression method that aims to produce the smallest possible prediction set with guaranteed coverage. Unlike existing methods that rely on nested conformal…
This paper presents a unified approach based on Wasserstein distance to derive concentration bounds for empirical estimates for two broad classes of risk measures defined in the paper. The classes of risk measures introduced include as…
Consider a finite sample from an unknown distribution over a countable alphabet. Unobserved events are alphabet symbols which do not appear in the sample. Estimating the probabilities of unobserved events is a basic problem in statistics…
We study concentration inequalities for structured weighted sums of random data, including (i) tensor inner products and (ii) sequential matrix sums. We are interested in tail bounds and concentration inequalities for those structured…
Objectives: Estimation of areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) and their differences is a key task in diagnostic studies. We aimed to derive, evaluate, and implement simple sample size formulas for such studies with a…
The current work is motivated by the need for robust statistical methods for precision medicine; as such, we address the need for statistical methods that provide actionable inference for a single unit at any point in time. We aim to learn…
This paper shows that large nonparametric classes of conditional multivariate densities can be approximated in the Kullback--Leibler distance by different specifications of finite mixtures of normal regressions in which normal means and…
We consider the problem of constructing confidence intervals for the median of a response $Y \in \mathbb{R}$ conditional on features $X \in \mathbb{R}^d$ in a situation where we are not willing to make any assumption whatsoever on the…
Recently, robust transmit beamforming has drawn considerable attention because it can provide guaranteed receiver performance in the presence of channel state information (CSI) errors. Assuming complex Gaussian distributed CSI errors, this…